With Lexington Stakes victory, Encino positions himself for a potential Kentucky Derby run

The road to the Kentucky Derby is now complete.

On Saturday evening, Encino — trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux — won the 42nd running of the Grade 3, $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, which was the final qualifying points race for this year’s 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby.

The 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes awarded qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.

Encino claimed 20 qualifying points with the victory and now has 40 points overall toward potential Derby qualification.

He is 21st on the Derby qualifying points leaderboard, which means Encino is the first horse out of the current projected Derby field.

“Ultimately (a potential Kentucky Derby start) will be up to the Godolphin team — Dan Pride, Michael Banahan, Sheikh Mohammed — and if it’s something they want to do, we’ll prepare him,” Cox said postrace, referencing Encino’s ownership. “We’ll ship him over to Churchill (Downs) in a few days regardless. I’ll tell you it will either be the Derby or the Preakness.”

And it appears Encino may already be in position to move into the projected Derby field.

On Sunday morning, it was reported that No More Time (19th on the Derby qualifying points leaderboard) was injured during a workout at Palm Meadows Thoroughbred Training Center, near Gulfstream Park in Florida.

According to trainer Jose Francisco D’Angelo, No More Time is out of contention for the Kentucky Derby. This would move Encino into the 20-horse field, should his connections want to enter the race.

The Wine Steward (the morning line favorite and the 7-5 post time favorite) finished second in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes. Dilger ran third and Secret Chat came in fourth. Footprint finished fifth.

Encino, which went off at 3-1 odds, won the race in 1:43:93.

A $0.10 superfecta paid $101.66 for the race.

Encino claimed the early lead out of the gate and paced the field around a fast Keeneland main track in idyllic racing conditions. He took a narrow lead into the stretch, where he outdueled The Wine Steward and eventually claimed a win by three-quarters of a length.

Encino was wearing blinkers in a race for the first time Saturday.

Nine horses contested the Lexington Stakes after Everdoit (who was set to depart post position 7) was scratched Saturday morning.

Encino is 3-1-0 in four career starts. All three of his previous races before Saturday came on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in Florence. Encino’s previous 20 qualifying points toward the Derby were earned when he won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last month.

“There was a little bit of a question mark about whether he would like the dirt, but he handled it today,” Cox said. “He had a few works at Keeneland leading up to this race and showed his hand. He seemed like he liked the surface, and he put it all together today.”

Three horses in the Lexington Stakes field — Hades, Encino and Liberal Arts — entered Saturday’s race with hopes of collecting enough qualifying points to potentially make the 20-horse starting gate for the Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Hades, who entered the race with 30 qualifying points, finished seventh.

He is fifth on the projected also-eligible list.

Liberal Arts, which entered the race with 19 qualifying points, finished sixth.

He will likely not make the Derby gate.

As far as a potential Derby bid goes for Encino, it’s a wait-and-see scenario for the 3-year-old son of Nyquist, a horse who won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

As the first horse out of the projected Derby field, there’s a strong likelihood Encino will take part in the Run for the Roses.

All it would take is one defection for Encino to move off the also-eligible list and make the starting gate.

Last year, Disarm collected the qualifying points necessary to make the Kentucky Derby in the Lexington Stakes, and he then finished fourth in the Derby.

In 2022, Rich Strike moved off the also-eligible list and won the Kentucky Derby at staggering 80-1 odds.

Last year, a series of scratches meant all of the horses on the also-eligible list made the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Projected look at the 2024 Kentucky Derby field

With the Lexington Stakes now complete, all qualifying points races for the Kentucky Derby have been run.

Here’s a look at the projected Derby field, along with the horses first up on the also-eligible list, led by Encino.

The Derby is limited to 20 horses in the starting gate.

When horses are tied on qualifying points, the first tiebreaker used is earnings in non-restricted stakes races. The next tiebreaker is lifetime earnings.

Kentucky Derby qualifying leaderboard:

▪ 1 - Sierra Leone (155 points).

▪ 2 - Fierceness (136 points).

▪ 3 - Catching Freedom (125 points).

▪ 4 - Stronghold (125 points).

Catching Freedom has $802,000 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Stronghold has $742,800 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 5 - Resilience (110 points).

▪ 6 - Forever Young (100 points).

▪ 7 - Endlessly (100 points).

Forever Young has $1,769,919 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Endlessly has $658,000 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 8 - Dornoch (75 points).

▪ 9 - Just a Touch (75 points).

Dornoch has $472,375 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Just a Touch has $247,500 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 10 - Track Phantom (70 points).

▪ 11 - West Saratoga (67 points).

▪ 12 - Just Steel (65 points).

▪ 13 - Honor Marie (65 points).

Just Steel has $628,295 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Honor Marie has $448,455 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 14 - Domestic Product (60 points).

▪ 15 - Catalytic (50 points).

▪ 16 - Deterministic (50 points).

▪ 17 - Society Man (50 points).

Catalytic has $186,000 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Deterministic has $180,000 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Society Man has $141,875 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 18 - Mystik Dan (46 points).

▪ 19 - No More Time (45 points).

No More Time was injured during a Sunday morning workout in Florida. According to trainer Jose Francisco D’Angelo, No More Time is now out of contention for the Kentucky Derby. This would move Encino into the field, should his connections want to race.

▪ 20 - T O Password (40 points).

T O Password has been extended an invitation to run in the Kentucky Derby after accruing 40 qualifying points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

Potential also-eligible horses

▪ 21 - Encino (40 points).

▪ 22 - Grand Mo the First (40 points).

Encino has $323,136 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Grand Mo the First has $164,250 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

▪ 23 - Common Defense (37 points).

▪ 24 - Epic Ride (35 points).

▪ 25 - Hades (30 points).

▪ 26 - Uncle Heavy (30 points).

Hades has $193,550 earnings in non-restricted stakes races. Uncle Heavy has $167,500 earnings in non-restricted stakes races.

The road to Kentucky Oaks 150 is complete. These fillies are in position to make the gate.

2024 Kentucky Derby Watch: A look at the projected field with just one prep race to go