Josh Hawley leads possible MO Democratic opponents in new poll for 2024 Senate seat

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, is leading two potential 2024 Democratic opponents by a significant margin, according to new polling released Thursday.

Hawley, who is running for reelection next year, beat both former Marine Lucas Kunce and St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell in a survey of 491 Missouri voters conducted last week by Emerson College Polling. Kunce and Bell are both campaigning for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.

In a matchup with Kunce, Hawley won 45% of respondents compared to 32% for Kunce. Pitted against Bell, the numbers are similar: Hawley has 44% support to 34% for Bell.

In both scenarios, 5% of respondents said they would vote for someone else and 17% said they were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.

The poll suggests the 2024 Senate race is less competitive than the 2022 race, when Republican Eric Schmitt, then the state attorney general, faced off against Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine. Schmitt won 55.4% to Valentine’s 42.2%.

Missouri state Sen. Karla May of St. Louis and December Harmon, a civil rights activist in Columbia, are also seeking the Democratic nomination. Emerson didn’t poll their support against Hawley.

In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump remains the clear favorite to win the general election in both Missouri and Kansas if he wins the Republican nomination, according to Emerson, which also conducted a survey of 487 Kansas voters last week.

Trump’s lead comes as he is fighting multiple felony indictments, including over his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia, his actions in the lead up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, his handling of classified documents after leaving office and allegations related to hush money payments in New York.

Trump leads President Joe Biden, 50% to 33%, in Missouri. That result would reflect an erosion in both Trump and Biden’s support since the 2020 election, when Trump won 56.8% of the vote and Biden won 41.4%.

In Kansas, Trump leads Biden 47% to 31%. In 2020, Trump won 56.2% of the vote and Biden won 41.6%.

“In Kansas, Trump leads across all educational levels, except among voters who have a postgraduate degree. These voters break for Biden, 51% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

“Trump leads Biden by 12 points among women, 44% to 32%, whereas his lead nearly doubles to 21 points among men, where he leads 50% to 29%.”

Even as Trump maintains a clear hold on Kansas, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly enjoys a 39% approval rating, with 30% of respondents disapproving and 31% neutral on the second-term governor.

In Missouri, 36% of respondents approve of the job Republican Gov. Mike Parson is doing, with 28% disapproving and 36% neutral.