Hurricane season begins with tropical disturbance barreling toward Florida

Thursday marks the official launch of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season – and it's starting with a storm already brewing off Florida's coast.

The National Hurricane Center season is tracking a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. In a forecast early Thursday morning, the agency said the low pressure area over the northeastern area of the Gulf became "a little more concentrated" throughout the night and that conditions seem to be "marginally favorable" for a cyclone to develop.

Originally that development wasn't expected to be significant, the agency said, with just a 20% chance that it could become a cyclone within the next 48 hours. However, by early Thursday afternoon, forecasters said conditions have increased the likelihood of development to 70% as the storm system picked up sustained wind speeds of 35 mph. If it continues to develop, it could become a "short-lived tropical depression or storm."

By this weekend, however, the forecast is expected to be "unfavorable" for the system to substantially develop.

"Regardless," the agency said in its 8 a.m. update, "local heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Peninsula through the weekend."

The National Weather Service has said the Tampa Bay area, which sits along the Gulf Coast, can expect a "rather wet pattern" into Friday as the system continues to hover over the Gulf. Heavy rainfall is considered the main concern of the system.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs until Nov. 30. The NOAA has predicted it will be a "near normal" season. At least a dozen named storms are anticipated over the next several months, with between five to nine hurricanes – and only between one and four that are considered "major."

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