Haley readies for Miami debate clash with DeSantis in fight to be top Trump alternative

The third Republican presidential primary debate in Miami is shaping up to be a potentially pivotal moment for Nikki Haley as she attempts to leapfrog Ron DeSantis in the race to become the most formidable challenger to Donald Trump.

The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and current Florida governor are on a collision course that will be amplified before a national audience on Wednesday night when they appear alongside each other without the GOP front-runner. Even the campaign of South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott predicted Haley and DeSantis “will devolve into a slugfest.”

It’s a stage tailor made for a confrontation that’s been festering for weeks and was accentuated by a recent poll showing the two deadlocked in second place in Iowa, a marker of Haley’s ascent this fall following two strong debates.

Republicans — from national operatives to Iowans — believe another ace debate performance from Haley could provide additional jetfuel to her momentum in the first-in-the-nation caucus state that is set to kick off the voting process in just over two months.

“Who’s in the best position for making a run at being a viable [Trump] alternative today? It’s really a DeSantis-Haley thing,” said John Steinman, an Iowa-based Republican consultant. “Haley’s there because of the debates, DeSantis is there because of the organization and the pre-candidate portion when he was riding pretty high … Haley’s trendline is obviously better.”

On Monday Haley’s campaign pushed out a memo urging the media to “start talking about a two-person race, one man and one woman.”

“In Iowa, DeSantis is a sinking ship, and Haley is a rising one,” wrote Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney. “Even if DeSantis were to do well in Iowa, which is a big ‘if’ given his current decline, he is in such a weak position in New Hampshire and South Carolina that it doesn’t matter. He has no end game.”

Mark Penn, who was Hillary Clinton’s political strategist in 2008, agreed that Haley’s trajectory is an urgent threat to DeSantis. In addition to losing ground in Iowa, DeSantis is trailing Haley by single digits in New Hampshire and by double-digits in her homestate of South Carolina.

“She is the only candidate showing momentum … If she comes in second in Iowa, Ron DeSantis is out at that point. It’s a two-person race,” Penn told the Free Expression podcast.

But DeSantis’ campaign argues that if Haley was truly seen as a bigger threat, she’d be incurring more attacks from the Trump campaign.

“This is a two-man race. Team Trump knows it — that’s why they’re spending over $1 million this week alone to attack DeSantis in Iowa despite proclaiming the primary was over in August,” said DeSantis campaign spokesman Bryan Griffin.

FOREIGN POLICY DIVIDE

Haley and DeSantis and their respective campaigns have increasingly targeted each other over an array of issues, from fracking to transgender bathroom laws and ties to China. But both camps are girding for a pointed clash on U.S. foreign policy on Wednesday night, as Israel continues its military assault on Gaza and Congress wrestles with allocating billions more dollars in aid Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

Whereas Haley has aggressively advocated for an interventionist U.S. posture in foreign conflicts, DeSantis embodies a more nationalist ideology that is dubious of sending American tax dollars for protracted wars.

Foreign affairs should be a strong issue set substantively for Haley, given her two years practicing diplomacy at the United Nations, but it’s trickier politically given the turn of the Republican base against far-flung interventionism. A late October Gallup poll found 62% of Republicans believe the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine, an opinion that DeSantis has embraced.

Haley sees Israel’s war against Hamas as crucial to American security, citing Iran’s regional influence and its alliance with China and Russia. She believes the U.S. should not pressure Israel into a ceasefire and thinks all humanitarian aid to Gaza gets seized by Hamas.

“So no, I don’t think America needs to be telling Israel what to do. I think America, whenever they think about telling Israel what to do, they need to look at those images of October 7, and stay quiet,” Haley told reporters in Columbia last week.

DeSantis supports Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas, but has objected to “blank checks” for Israel, considering the United States’ $33 trillion national debt, and has targeted Haley over her full-fledged support for continued Ukraine aid.

“Of course Nikki Haley supports a blank check to Ukraine, even though they’ve given Ukraine over $120 billion in less than two years,” DeSantis said on Newsmax last week, referring to congressional spending.

IOWA MOMENTUM

Arguably the most important audience for Wednesday night’s debate is the 180,000 Iowans expected to vote in the Jan. 15 caucuses that will kick off primary voting and almost certainly winnow the GOP field chasing Trump.

While Iowa Republicans say DeSantis has the most advanced ground game in the state between his official campaign and its super PAC, they’ve noticed an uptick in Haley staff hirings and believe voters are showing more interest in the former South Carolina governor.

Brett Barker, the GOP chairman in Story County, just north of Des Moines, said the biggest difference between Haley and DeSantis is their accessibility, noting that Haley invests more face time with voters than DeSantis does at events.

“We, as county parties, haven’t worked as closely with the DeSantis campaign. From our experience they like to set up their own events as opposed to piggybacking off what we’re doing,” Barker said.

Yet Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ pre-debate endorsement of DeSantis on Monday complicates Haley’s pathway to becoming Trump’s fiercest competitor.

The Haley campaign memo declares DeSantis without a path to victory in New Hampshire or South Carolina, but Iowa is likely to reshape how many candidates remain in the primary in mid-January.

An outside ally to DeSantis surmised that the third-place finisher in Iowa would be the most important outcome of the caucuses, because the strength of that candidate’s performance could determine whether he or she fights on or drops out, freeing their voters to gravitate to the last standing non-Trump option.

“Iowa isn’t the title fight knock-out. It’s where the undercard gets eliminated,” noted Stineman. “We winnow. We don’t decide.”

Joseph Bustos at The State contributed reporting.