Good news for Beshear: recent reports say KY governor is popular, favored for re-election

Gov. Andy Beshear might be feeling pretty good right about now.

Despite being a Democrat in an increasingly red state, three new reports this week show Beshear is highly popular and the favorite heading into his quest for re-election in November.

The governor has raised more than $5 million to support his campaign, all the while a dozen Republicans are vying to secure their party’s nomination in the May primary.

“Kentuckians know Andy Beshear,” Kentucky Democratic Party Chair Colmon Elridge said in a statement. “They know he has stood with them through some of our toughest days and they know as the best jobs governor in our history he’s building a better commonwealth with more opportunities for our families in every corner of Kentucky.”

Kentucky’s election will be closely watched, as just three states — Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi — elect governors this year. Kentucky is likely to be the most competitive of all three.

Sign up for our Bluegrass Politics Newsletter

A must-read newsletter for political junkies across the Bluegrass State with reporting and analysis from the Lexington Herald-Leader. Never miss a story! Sign up for our Bluegrass Politics newsletter to connect with our reporting team and get behind-the-scenes insights, plus previews of the biggest stories.

On Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the Kentucky governor’s race as a “lean Democrat.”

Two days later, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics concurred.

“Considering the governor’s personal popularity and the potential for uncertainty in the Republican primary, we are starting Beshear off as a slight favorite and calling the Kentucky contest leans Democratic,” the authors wrote.

A Morning Consult survey also released Thursday found Beshear to be the most popular Democratic governor in the nation and tied for seventh most popular governor over all. Survey data was collected between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31.

Sixty percent of Kentucky voters approve of his performance, while 34% disapprove. Among Republicans, half disapprove of Beshear, but almost as many — 46% — approve.

Beshear also cracked the Top 10 most popular governors in a Morning Consult survey released in October, and he was the most popular Democratic governor in an April survey, too.

But as the most recent Morning Consult report points out, popularity doesn’t guarantee a win at the ballot box.

Nevada’s Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, had an approval rating of at least 50% in the last half of 2022, but lost his re-election bid to Republican Joe Lombardo. Another Democratic governor, Laura Kelly of Kansas, held on and beat her Republican challenger, Derek Schmidt, in November.

“The only poll that matters is the one taken on election day,” Sean Southard, spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said. “We have a robust field of candidates running in the 2023 Republican primary and we stand ready to support our nominee once the primary process is concluded. ... We look forward to electing a Republican governor who, unlike Andy Beshear, will work with our supermajorities in the General Assembly to deliver for Kentucky’s families, workers, and small businesses.”

Southard pointed to Republicans’ successes in the November 2022 general election, which grew GOP supermajorities in both chambers of Kentucky’s legislature, as a rejection of Beshear and his party.

Beshear does face two challengers in the May 16 primary — perennial candidate Geoff Young and 1999 Republican gubernatorial nominee Peppy Martin — but is expected to easily secure the Democratic nomination.

Beshear, the son of former two-term governor Steve Beshear, narrowly defeated the deeply unpopular Republican Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019, winning by little more than 5,000 voters.

The GOP field hoping to face Beshear for governor is crowded: Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Auditor Mike Harmon, former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft and Somerset Mayor Alan Keck are among the Republicans competing for the chance to take on Beshear.