How good is 49ers quarterback Trey Lance? Robert Griffin III weighs in on the young gun

San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has worked with a slew of quarterbacks throughout his 18 seasons as an NFL coach. But only one can relate to what Trey Lance is going through right now.

That signal-caller is Robert Griffin III, the No. 2 overall draft pick of Washington in 2012 who played for Shanahan when he was the offensive coordinator under his father, Mike. Like Lance, Griffin was a top draft pick with a dynamic skill set who challenged Shanahan to get creative with X’s and O’s to maximize his quarterback’s potential.

It’s Lance’s promise paired with Shanahan’s puppeteering of the offense that has Griffin optimistic about where the 49ers could be headed. But like many young quarterbacks, the development process might not be smooth.

“I think 49ers fans have to be ready for there to be ups and downs with Trey,” Griffin said in an interview with The Bee at the American Century Championship, the celebrity golf tournament in South Lake Tahoe.

“But the bottom line is Kyle Shanahan has had extreme success with guys like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo, who are going to run the offense, and there’s going to be times when Trey, his talent and his ability takes over, and that’s what’s going to take over the hump to get them to the Super Bowl,” Griffins said. “Which is what they didn’t have with Matt Ryan when they were up 28-3 against the Patriots, and they didn’t have that with Jimmy Garoppolo, when he missed that last throw down to Emmanuel Sanders when he overthrew him.”

Indeed, the 49ers’ messaging since drafting Lance last spring has been mostly about improving the availability under center, after injuries cost Garoppolo productive seasons in 2018 (ACL tear) and 2020 (recurring high ankle sprains). Even in 2021, after San Francisco traded three first-round picks to draft Lance third overall, Garoppolo was hampered by thumb and shoulder injuries late in the season.

The shoulder ailment required surgery in the spring and has prevented San Francisco from trading him and officially making Lance the starter. Though Shanahan has insisted all offseason he expects Garoppolo to get dealt before the start of the upcoming regular season. Lance received all the work with the starters throughout the spring program, after serving as Garoppolo’s backup last year.

Improving over Garoppolo

There was always an emphasis of trying to improve on the play of Garoppolo. Shanahan said when he was first hired in 2017, well before acquiring Garoppolo in the trade with the Patriots, that the best way to build a sustainable contender was to have an elite signal-caller.

“You’re always looking for one of those seven throwers on the planet, whatever that number is. I’m guessing there’s only around seven,” Shanahan said after his introductory news conference. “So you better not only be set on that, saying, ‘Hey, I need one of those seven guys.’ ... I hope to get one of those seven guys, but if you don’t, you got to find other ways to win.”

That reasoning has played out. The 49ers lost the Super Bowl to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs after the 2019 season and fell in the recent NFC title game to Rams star Matthew Stafford. Both those quarterbacks are among the most-talented throwers of their era and were able to make winning plays against San Francisco’s defense late in games.

Garoppolo, by contrast, has mostly been an efficient game manager with the 49ers, who contended in two of the last three seasons more because of their top-ranked defenses and running games than quarterback play. Having an elite quarterback can make up for deficiencies elsewhere and San Francisco hasn’t enjoyed that luxury since Garoppolo tore his ACL early in the 2018 campaign.

With Lance, there’s a belief his strong arm and athleticism could create more plays outside of the structure of the offense, which has become paramount in the modern NFL, and what the team lacked with Garoppolo.

“Jimmy, you knew for a fact, hey, he’s going to run the play (called by Shanahan),” Griffin, currently an analyst for ESPN, told The Bee. “And if it’s there, he’s going to make it work, and if it’s not there, coach, you need to coach better. With Trey Lance, it’s not going to be that way. That’s how it was with me at times. There’s going to be opportunities you have where your skills are going to take over. But that X factor is what’s going to help you win a Super Bowl and not just get to a Super Bowl.”

Building on Lance

The challenge for Shanahan heading into training camp July 26 is creating an offense that fits Lance’s skill set. Lance is a diametrically different quarterback than Garoppolo, who was best as a rhythm passer making short throws over the middle of the field.

Lance has a more deliberate release and is less accurate, but his legs can be incorporated into the running game and he’s far more dynamic pushing the ball downfield.

Which all means the 49ers offense is expected to look different with Lance under center than the last five seasons, when Shanahan played Garoppolo, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, who are traditional pocket quarterbacks.

Based on his experience getting coached by Shanahan, Griffin is optimistic Shanahan can create an attack that fits Lance’s strengths.

“Kyle Shanahan and that group (of coaches) that I had my rookie year, my second year in the league, are probably some of the smartest X and O coaches I’ve ever been around,” Griffin said. “My experience was, they essentially took my college offense and morphed it into a pro-style system. So I pushed back on the (idea), ‘they created a system for me.’ They didn’t. They literally downloaded every single tape of my college career (from Baylor).”

Robert Griffin III’s NFL career

Griffin in 2012 earned the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award and helped Washington reach the playoffs for just the third time since the turn of the century. He completed 66% of his throws with 20 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. He added 815 yards and seven touchdowns as a runner predominately using the zone-read system former Baylor coach Art Briles instituted when Griffin won the Heisman Trophy in 2011.

But that Washington team did it without premier receivers. Pierre Garçon was the team’s leading receiver with 633 yards (while appearing in only 10 games). Washington that season had the league’s best running game behind Griffin and rookie running back Alfred Morris, who had 1,613 yards and 13 touchdowns. The passing game ranked 20th but led the league with the fewest interceptions.

Lance, meanwhile, is expected to have All-Pros at tight end (George Kittle) and receiver (Deebo Samuel) along with 2020 first-round draft pick Brandon Aiyuk and breakout candidate Jauan Jennings, who emerged late last season and became Lance’s favorite target this spring. And with Elijah Mitchell returning after a strong rookie season, Shanahan’s typically stout running game should remain among the league’s best.

Yet the most important factor for the 49ers in 2022 will be who’s under center.

“I still think the ceiling is much higher with Trey Lance than it was with Jimmy Garoppolo,” Griffin said.