Five reasons why California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Florida ad is a big deal

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Independence Day Florida ad has vaulted him deep into the national conversation about the 2024 presidential race as Democrats on social media hail him as a tell-it-like-it-is stalwart.

“If the goal was to get folks talking about Newsom and to praise his aggressive stance on the GOP — it worked,” said California Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta, who cited widespread praise on social media for the gambit.

The ad, which slammed former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also had another national effect: It stirred the country’s powerful network of Republican critics.

“People in other states don’t like California. The governor of Florida is actually picking up votes with this,” tweeted California Republican consultant Matt Rexroad.

The 30 second ad, which ran Monday on Fox News stations in Florida, is being analyzed by insiders as the prelude to an eventual presidential bid by the California governor.

In the spot, Newsom urges viewers to “join us’ in California.

“Freedom, it’s under attack in your state. Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,” Newsom said. Both Newsom and DeSantis are seeking second gubernatorial terms in November, and both are heavy favorites.

Newsom’s campaign did not respond to The Bee’s request for comment Tuesday.

What does it all mean?

A first step to the White House

Be skeptical of Newsom’s claims about his “sub-zero” interest in the presidency. Same for his assertion that Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator and attorney general, should be Joe Biden’s successor if he chooses not to run for re-election in 2024.

Politicians’ pronouncements about career plans always come with unspoken caveats. Circumstances change. What if the Biden-Harris ticket loses in 2024? What if Biden decides not to run and Harris falters as a candidate for the Democratic nomination? What if activists clamor for an alternative?

Should Newsom decide to get in, he’ll always be able to say, in effect, “That was then and this is now.” In other words he did in fact have “sub-zero interest” in the spring of 2022 but the political landscape changed. The ad is one of several tactics he’s employed to keep his name in the mix until the time comes.

Leader of the left/center wing

This is the segment of the Democratic party that has won recent national elections.

In 1992, Bill Clinton assembled that coalition to become the first Democrat to win the White House in 16 years. Barack Obama and Biden largely followed the same blueprint; winning just enough votes in swing states and holding onto the more liberal states.

While Newsom falls on the liberal side of most key issues, he’s also been adept at maintaining decent support among independents. The latest Public Policy Institute of California poll, taken May 12 to 22, found Newsom with a 52% approval rating from likely voters.

While Democrats overwhelmingly approved, and Republicans didn’t, independents were divided.

He also would run slightly better than Harris against either Trump or DeSantis, according to a Yahoo/YouGov nationwide poll taken June 24 to 27.

Stirring up social

Newsom is not well-known outside California, except to political insiders. “My suspicion is most people couldn’t tell you the name of a governor of a neighboring state,” said Andrew Smith, director of the Granite State Poll in New Hampshire, traditionally the nation’s first primary state.

An important path to political prominence these days is via social media, and the ad was enthusiastically received on those platforms by Democrats.

“Just check out the social media buzz and the number of retweets and comments from progressive activists. Way too many Democrats are looking for more action and fewer emails asking for a $5 campaign donation,” Acosta said.

Owning the conservatives

In MAGA world, “owning the libs” — infuriating liberals with provocative rhetoric or tactics — is a paramount virtue.

The ad gave the right new talking points against Newsom —and a chance to urge people outside of California to join in.

“California governor Gavin Newsom is currently running ads in Florida encouraging Floridians to leave because they don’t have enough freedom. How is it possible that every single Democrat is this dumb? The biggest red wave in history is coming in four months,” tweeted Clay Travis, who co-hosts a conservative talk show.

At Breitbart News, a conservative website, Joel B. Pollak, senior editor-at-large, wrote Newsom was “positioning himself as a leader of the opposition to Republicans on cultural issues such as abortion and gun control, repeating a strategy that took him to prominence in 2004 when, as mayor, he legalized gay marriage in San Francisco.”

Beware the Black base

If Newsom’s purpose is to help the Florida Democratic nominees for governor and other offices, fine, said Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist.

But if the ad is a harbinger of national ambitions anytime soon, that could be a problem, he said.

“You’re being disrespectful to the first African-American woman to become vice president,” Seawright said. Not to mention Biden.

“Don’t disrespect Biden and his supporters,” Seawright added. “Anything but trying to be helpful to President Biden would be a distraction and a big turnoff to black voters in the South who backed him for the nomination.”