The demographics of Benton and Franklin counties are changing. What’s our future? | Opinion

Over the past dozen years, the greater Tri-Cities has won the sweepstakes for the fastest-growing metro area in the state.

Between 2010 and 2022, the population here grew at a clip of 1.8% per year, compounded. People of Color (POC) in the two counties had much to do with this, as they expanded at a compounded annual rate of 3.8%.

These bare facts provide the backdrop for a talk I will give in an online Zoom forum presented by the Columbia Basin Badger Club on March 21. I will be joined by two POC community leaders, Othene Haywood and Martin Valadez.

As of 2022, the latest estimates available, the population in the two counties was nearly 312,000, with POC accounting for more than 137,000. That’s 44%of the total.

With such tailwinds, the base forecast by state demographers at the Office of Financial Management (OFM) calls for a two-county population of more than 350,000 in 2030.

OFM doesn’t issue forecasts by race and ethnicity, but if the growth rate of the last dozen years prevails through 2030, we expect POC to exceed 185,000. This would make the entire two-county area “majority-minority.”

To understand a future Tri-Cities, it is critical to understand the trends now visible.

Currently, the overall assessment of economic and educational progress is mixed. One of the most fundamental measures of economic well-being, median household income, shows the 2018-2022 average for all POC populations to be less than for non-Hispanic Whites.

But the income growth rates of two of the three largest groups – Hispanics/Latinos and “two or more races,” have been considerably faster than that of non-Hispanic Whites. Since these two groups amount to the bulk of POC here, it’s fair to say this segment is catching up.

Yet not all are. The other groups — Asian-Americans, American Indians, Blacks, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders — all experienced slower income growth over the past dozen years than non-Hispanic Whites. The differentiated outcome by race or ethnicity is true of so many measures.

Consider the makeup of the area’s highest-paying sectors. For example, Hispanics/Latinos now account for nearly one out of every five jobs in waste remediation; yet the share of Asian-Americans has grown faster. In finance and insurance, the share of Hispanics/Latinos is not only large, at 28% compared with the next POC group, Asian-Americans at 4%, but has grown more rapidly than other racial and ethnic groups.

Since education sets occupational choices and since occupations determine salaries and ultimately incomes, the educational progress of students of color can be predictive.

Consider high school on-time graduation rates. Overall, there’s not much to celebrate among the three largest school districts over the past decade.

Total shares remain in the high-70-to-mid-80% range, below the state average. Students of color have typically shown lower graduation rates. Yet, Hispanics/Latinos have demonstrated faster progress than all other groups.

And then there’s college-going behavior — whether to a two- or four-year, for-profit or nonprofit institution. Overall rates for the most recent two years, covering the classes of 2020 and 2021, have plummeted. The experience has not been too different for Hispanic/Latino students, but it’s considerably worse for other groups.

If the greater Tri-Cities is to enjoy an economy filled with well-paying jobs, and if residents want the area’s future workforce to come largely from today’s youth, the economic progress of the past decade could well be in jeopardy with these educational outcomes.

To register for this event, visit www.columbiabasinbadgers.com. There is no charge for Badger Club members. Nonmembers pay $5.

Patrick Jones, Ph.D. is the executive director of the Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis at EWU. The institute has co-created and maintained Benton Franklin Trends since 2015.