Cases expected to rise as BA.2 variant is now dominant strain in NJ and NY

Scott Fallon, NorthJersey.com

COVID's BA.2 variant has become the dominant strain in New Jersey and New York, but key metrics including cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline, data released Tuesday shows.

BA.2 continues to spread quickly in the region, far outpacing the rate nationally.

Health officials expect COVID cases in New Jersey to increase, but don't believe there will be a huge surge seen with the delta variant last summer or the omicron variant in December and January.

BA.2 accounted for 52% of all strains as of March 19, up from 39% the prior week, according to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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Infectious disease experts believe the variant — a sublineage of the original omicron variant — is more contagious but may not be as deadly, especially to the vaccinated and those already infected by omicron.

The statistics bear that out, for now.

  • COVID hospitalizations in New Jersey dipped below 400 on Monday night for the first time since last July, which was just before the delta variant began to surge.

  • The daily death toll has been in the low double digits and single digits in March after fluctuating between 80 and 110 most days in January during the peak of omicron.

  • New cases fluctuate daily but have ranged between 500 and 1,500 in recent weeks, compared with a high of 33,459 on Jan. 7.

  • New York City has seen a slight increase in cases, but hospitalizations and deaths are still dropping.

Gov. Phil Murphy warned on Friday that cases will likely rise in New Jersey as they have done in parts of Europe and Asia. But he said he doesn't expect to reinstitute any public health measures on masks or capacity limits anytime soon.

On Tuesday, Murphy and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson released a joint statement on behalf of the National Governors Association calling for Congress and the Biden administration to continue sending states money to combat the virus.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief White House medical adviser, said this week that BA.2 will eventually become the dominant strain in the U.S.

"It does have an increased transmission capability," he said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." "However, when you look at the cases, they do not appear to be any more severe and they do not appear to evade immune responses either from vaccines or prior infection."

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CDC's Region 2, which includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands along with New Jersey and New York, is second in the nation for the prevalence of BA.2 next to New England, which is seeing 55% of new cases being BA.2.

BA.2 accounted for 35% of strains nationwide as of Tuesday.

Scott Fallon has covered the COVID-19 pandemic since its onset in March 2020. To get unlimited access to the latest news about the pandemic's impact on New Jersey, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: fallon@northjersey.com

Twitter: @newsfallon

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: New COVID BA.2 variant now dominant in NJ, but cases still falling

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