College football odds: We're turning to a Sun Belt favorite to cover the spread in Week 5

James Madison joined the FBS this 2022 season as a member of the Sun Belt Conference. Just a few weeks in, it's 3-0 and sits second in the East behind Coastal Carolina after pulling off a major upset win over Appalachian State last week as a 6.5-point underdog, winning 32-28. The Dukes are my ‘favorite to cover’ for Week 5 of college football.

Lay the points with James Madison (-21.5) at home against Texas State

The Dukes are tied for having the second-best pass rush in the country, accumulating eight total sacks against two FBS opponents, including four against App State. JMU has eight players on roster with at least one sack with DL Mikail Kamara leading this unit. The Bobcats are ranked bottom 40 in quarterback protection, with QB Layne Hatcher having been sacked 11 times this season. That includes giving up four sacks to Nevada, which has a pass rush ranked outside of the top 50 in pressure. This alone is a huge mismatch.

Mismatch No. 2: Texas State’s one-dimensional passing offense against James Madison’s secondary. Ranked 70th in passing yards and 109th in yards per pass attempt, Hatcher and company will face a JMU defense that is top 15 in opponent passing yards allowed.

Mismatch No. 3: The Dukes' rushing offense against the Bobcats' rushing defense. JMU quarterback Todd Centeio is the team’s leading rusher, running for over 100 yards against Middle Tennessee in Week 1 and 61 against App State last week. Defending a mobile quarterback is never easy, especially when that mobile QB comes with a duo of backs in Kaelon Black and Percy Agyei-Obese who've combine for four scores while averaging for 5.5 yards per carry.

This matchup could very well end in similar fashion to Texas State’s loss at Baylor. The Bears are a run-first team with a strong pass rush and solid defense. The Bobcats allowed 293 rushing yards, 7.9 yards per carry and lost, 42-7.

James Madison will move the ball easily, piling up points with little risk. Texas State has already shown it can't play catch up on the road in a 38-14 loss at lowly Nevada and the loss at Baylor. Lay the points with the Dukes.