A closer look at the pros, cons of Clemson jumping to SEC or Big Ten
The SEC acquired Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12.
The Big Ten acquired Southern Cal and UCLA from the Pac-12.
And no matter how things shake out for ACC darling Clemson, once reported to be a top expansion target for both conferences during this latest round of college football realignment, the Tigers shouldn’t worry about getting their piece of the pie, according to one national writer.
“Clemson is a program that’s won multiple national championships in the College Football Playoff era,” CBS Sports national college football writer Shehan Jeyarajah said. “They’ve proven they can win and compete at the highest level. And to me, they have the consensus No. 2 coach in the sport. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’re left out of this world.”
Though realignment news may have temporarily slowed, with Saturday Down South reporting Monday the SEC’s “preference” to remain at 16 teams, Clemson’s conference status will remain a talking point in a sport defined by its astronomical, football-fueled TV contracts.
Clemson will not comment on realignment reports and rumors, an athletics department spokesperson told The State last week.
As for the pros and cons of the Tigers’ potential move out of the ACC into the SEC or Big Ten? The State caught up with Jeyarajah for his thoughts.
Clemson to the SEC: Pros
Jumping to the SEC would place Clemson in the nation’s most prestigious football conference. The SEC has accounted for 12 of the last 16 BCS or CFP national champions, a list that includes 2021 champ Georgia, Tim Tebow’s Florida powerhouses, Joe Burrow’s unforgettable LSU squad and lots of Alabama (six championships since 2009). Instant classics would become an annual occurrence.
An SEC move would also put Clemson in a “tremendous position” financially, Jeyarajah said. It just means more (monetarily) in the nation’s richest conference, which doled out $54.6 million on average to member schools in fiscal year 2020-21, thanks in part to an advantageous TV deal. The ACC, by comparison, distributed $36.1 million to schools in 2020-21. The gap in their annual payouts could reach $50 million by 2029.
By joining the SEC, Clemson would “join the national stage,” Jeyarajah said, in terms of college football agenda-setting. Attaching at the hip at one of the sport’s two mega-conferences guarantees a team access, standing and influence on ongoing national topics such as CFP expansion and name, image and likeness.
Clemson’s football-centric success and fandom have long given off SEC vibes; to join the league would be “to be part of a conference that makes sense for you,” Jeyarajah said. Clemson is located within five hours of six SEC schools, has natural rivalries in place (South Carolina, Georgia) and heavily recruits the Southeast.
Clemson to the SEC: Cons
Jeyarajah thinks it’ll be “much harder” for Clemson to maintain its CFP success against an SEC schedule. “I certainly don’t think that anybody would have traded the two national championships Clemson has for better regular-season games over the past decade,” he said. But the Tigers’ recent SEC track record, he noted, has been strong. The Tigers are 19-11 against the SEC under coach Dabo Swinney, 4-3 in bowl games and 12-4 over the past seven years, with their only four losses coming to eventual champions. Eight wins came against South Carolina.
Leaving the ACC means dealing with its grant of rights, which runs through 2035-36 and stipulates that, if a school leaves, the ACC keeps its TV revenue. It’s a “very strong contract” that could delay any sudden moves by Clemson or other SEC/Big Ten expansion targets, Jeyarajah said. Per ESPN: Exiting the ACC would cost $120 to $150 million, plus at least another $300 million (at least) in total TV revenue lost through 2036.
Clemson to the Big Ten: Pros
Moving to the Big Ten would similarly guarantee Clemson “access to major college football,” which Jeyarajah sees as a key factor in recent realignment moves. With West Coast powers Southern Cal and UCLA joining the Big Ten’s Midwestern array of programs, it will be up to 16 teams in 2024 (the same number the SEC will have by 2025) and positioned as a major player.
Clemson’s geographical access to talent in prospect-loaded states such as Florida, Georgia and Alabama could give it an upper hand in recruiting battles against far-off conference foes and fuel success. As the Big Ten’s de facto Southeast school, “Clemson would be in a great position to compete in that league,” Jeyarajah said.
Clemson to the Big Ten: Cons
As detailed by The Clemson Insider, Clemson’s history with Big Ten opponents is … minimal. The Tigers have faced Ohio State in four bowl games since 2014, including two CFP semifinals and one CFP final. The rest of their Big Ten history is limited to bowl games against Illinois (1991) and Minnesota (1985) and bouts with Penn State (1988) and Nebraska (1982, 2009) before they joined. Clemson has played Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin a whopping zero times combined. Talk about a restart.
Football is the money maker, but a conference move affects each and every sport on campus. Southern Cal and UCLA moving to the Big Ten marked the “death of geography,” Jeyarajah said with a laugh. The average distance from UCLA to a Big Ten school is 2,160 miles, per the Los Angeles Times. In a Clemson-Big Ten world, travel times might be minor inconveniences for a football team with a chartered flight playing once a week. But they’d be huge — not to mention costly — time commitments for every other team on campus.
