Close November California elections will determine House majority. Here’s a look at the matchups
California congressional contests could decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives in 2025 — and a couple in the Central Valley are especially crucial.
It’s still too early to know the final results of the March 5 primary, but there are 10 November races that could determine which party holds the House majority, with two toss-ups in the Central Valley and similarly tight elections in Southern California.
“It’s a multi-dimensional story in the Central Valley because these districts voted against Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 by a healthy margin,” said Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report. “But at the state level, there is a lot of anger with Democratic management of issues in Sacramento. And so these districts tend to vote against Gavin Newsom, or at least by a weaker margin for Newsom, than they would for Biden or Clinton or a national Democrat.”
The 10 congressional districts with close November 2024 contests are the same as in 2022, when California helped secure a razor-thin majority for Republicans. Many of the California districts with vulnerable incumbents are held by Republicans.
“It varies from district to district, but no doubt Democrats have a number of opportunities in the state,” Wasserman said. “They need to win most of them to take back the House majority, in my view.”
Predictions tend to shift in the lead up to the Nov. 5 general election — and ratings could change after all the primary election returns come in. But because turnout tends to be far lower in California primaries compared to the general election, and a lot can change between now and November, analysts don’t hinge their predictions on the results.
Primaries “can tell us broad contours of ‘this district is going to be competitive, this district isn’t,’” said Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections. “But beyond that, I think they lack all that much predictive power for an election that’s eight months away.”
Turnout appeared to be very low for March 5, particularly for Democrats — a trend that historically has occurred in California primaries.
“The basic rule of thumb is that if Democrats win a majority of the two-party vote in a district, they will win the seat in the fall, but that rule does not always apply to Republicans,” wrote Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball before the primary. “However, it used to be more common for the Democratic vote to grow from the primary to the general than it is now.”
He added, “Vote counts in California take weeks to finalize, so we’ll hold off on following up on the 2024 primary results and mining them for clues about November until after the results are completely reported. Remember this warning if you see others drawing general election conclusions based on incomplete results next week.”
The top two vote-getters regardless of party advance from the primary. Most November match-ups seem sure, according to Associated Press projections, but the results won’t be official for a month. California’s secretary of state will certify the winners on April 12.
Election results noted here were checked at 9:30 a.m. Pacific Time on Friday. The AP estimates the amount of votes counted.
Here are 10 November House races on election analysts’ radars in California in numerical order.
3rd Congressional District
November rating: Likely Republican
Analysts believe freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, will likely keep his seat — but it is still on their radars. The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.
Kiley and Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist, will advance from the primary, the AP projected. With 81% of the votes counted, Kiley had 54.9% and Morse had 43%. A no-party preference candidate had the remaining votes.
Kiley, a freshman, won over Dr. Kermit Jones, a Democrat, by more than 7 percentage points in November 2022.
“Kevin Kiley won by a healthy margin last time, but this is a district that is steadily trending towards Democrats that do have more arrivals to the Tahoe area, but also the Sacramento suburbs,” Wasserman said. “By the end of the decade, I would bet that this district is very competitive.”
“Today, still slightly Republican leaning, and so it’s on our watch list and likely Republican,” he said. “But Democrats do have a fairly strong candidate here.”
9th Congressional District
November rating: Likely Democratic
Two of the analysis organizations think that the Stockton-anchored district held by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, is likely rather than safely Democratic. The three-term congressman and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican who has support from national GOP fundraisers, will advance to the general election, the AP projected.
With 96% of the votes counted, Harder had 50.1% and Lincoln had 29.9%. Two other Republican challengers split the remaining votes.
“It would probably be in the ‘solid Democrat’ column if it weren’t for Kevin Lincoln being in the race,” said Wasserman. “Lincoln did have a rocky start to his campaign but he’s been able to raise enough money to be taken seriously, and he does already represent the heart of the district, which is a Democratic-leaning city.”
Harder won on a large margin in a year that was tough for California Democrats: In 2022, he beat San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, by almost 10 percentage points. But Harder could be face more difficulty, Wasserman said, if President Joe Biden does poorly with historically Democratic groups, including Black and Hispanic voters, he said.
13th Congressional District
November rating: Toss-up
The primary in California’s 13th Congressional District wasn’t competitive. But the November race between freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, is a toss-up.
Duarte and Gray were the only primary candidates. Duarte had 55.2% and Gray had 44.8%.
Duarte beat Gray by fewer than 600 votes in November 2022, the second-closest House race in the nation.
The district, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, voted for Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points and has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
“I think it’s one of the truest toss-up districts in the whole country,” Kondik said before the primary. “And I look at the other California Biden-won districts that Democrats are targeting and this one can be seen as among the most gettable of those potentially, because Duarte is not quite as proven of an incumbent as say, some of the folks who won in 2020.”
22nd Congressional District
November rating: Toss-up
Analysts are split on whether Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, will keep his seat after 2024. Inside Elections gives him a slight edge over a Democratic challenger, but it’s in toss-up territory.
Valadao and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, will be in for a November rematch, the AP projected.
With 88% of votes counted, Valadao had 33% and Salas had 30.5%.
Leading up to March 5, speculation about whether Democrats would lock themselves out of the November election led national fundraisers to bolster Salas, who lost to Valadao in 2022 by less than 3 percentage points. He had to overcome State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield. Valadao too had an in-party challenger: Republican Chris Mathys, an ardent Trump supporter. Mathys had 22.5% and Hurtado had 14%.
The 22nd, which has more Democrats than Republicans and would have picked Biden by 13 points in 2020, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. The district has often suffered from low turnout, meaning older, white, conservative voters disproportionately weigh in on elections there.
Valadao survived tough elections before, having lost and regained his House seat on slim margins between 2018 and 2020.
“I think as these California races go, there are four really strong opportunities for Democrats,” Wasserman said. “Those are the 13th, 22nd, 27th and 41st.”
27th Congressional District
November rating: Toss-up
Experts foresee a toss-up in the 27th. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, represents the northern Los Angeles County district.
Garcia, who first entered Congress after a 2020 special election, and Democrat George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic, will advance, the AP said.
Garcia had 54.9% and Whitesides had 32.9% with 98% of them counted. A Democrat scooped the rest.
“Anyone who’s drawing conclusions from Mike Garcia getting 57% of the primary vote, first of all, it’s not going to be 57% by the time by the time we’re done counting,” Wasserman said. “And that district, most of the voters who show up in primaries are a longtime resident, tend to be Republican, whereas the more transient newcomer population is bluer.”
40th Congressional District
November rating: Likely Republican
Analysts concur that Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, will likely win in 2024; still, they consider it one to watch. The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Kim, who has represented the area in Congress since 2021, and Democrat Joe Kerr, who served as an Orange County firefighter for over three decades, moved on from the primary, the AP said. Kim had 56.4% of the vote and Kerr had 25.6% with 95% of them counted.
Democrat Allyson Damikolas, president of the Tustin Unified School District Board, had the remaining 18%.
41st Congressional District
November rating: Leans Republican
Forecasters predicted the 41st leans in favor of Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and are watching it closely. The Cook Political Report rates the Riverside County district as a toss-up.
“I might actually say that Duarte and Ken Calvert are the two most vulnerable Republicans in the delegation,” Wasserman said, “in Calvert’s case because that district is changing quite fast and in Duarte’s case because he’s not really well defined yet.”
Calvert, who assumed office in 1993, and Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, will compete in the general, the AP projected.
Calvert had 52.9% of the votes and Rollins had 38.6% with 97% counted. Another Democrat won the rest.
Calvert had his closest House race in over a decade against Rollins in 2022. The congressman won by less than 4 percentage points.
45th Congressional District
November rating: Leans Republican
All the experts think Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, will edge out a November opponent in the 45th, which takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.
Steel, a two-term congresswoman, will advance, the AP said. She had 54.9% of the votes with 96% counted.
Four Democrats split the remaining votes. Two are neck-and-neck in a fight to join Steel on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Derek Tran, a lawyer, had 15.8% and Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, a Garden Grove City Council member, had 15.6%.
Who advances could make a big difference in November, said Rubashkin, “just because the fundraising disparity between Tran and when Nguyen-Penaloza has been so incredibly stark. So I’ll be watching that one as well. Not saying that would necessarily mean a ratings change depending on who ultimately gets the nomination, but definitely one that I’m watching.”
47th Congressional District
November rating: Leans Democratic
Forecasters are divided on whether Democrats have a clear advantage in the Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, vacated for a failed Senate bid. Sabato’s Crystal Ball had it as a toss-up; Inside Elections say it just tilts Democratic while The Cook Political Report says it leans.
The AP projected Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney who contested Porter in 2022, and State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, will face off in the general. Baugh had 32.2% and Min had 25.9% with 95% of votes counted.
Eight candidates split remaining votes.
49th Congressional District
November rating: Likely Democratic
The consensus is that Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, will likely have the upperhand in 2024 against a Republican. The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County.
Levin, who has held congressional office since 2019, and Republican Matt Gunderson, a business owner, will compete in the general, the AP said.
With 94% of votes counted, Levin had 50.8% and Gunderson had 25.8%. Republican contenders split the remaining votes.
