Cardinals have a tough choice between Scott and Siani in center field. Or do they?

Victor Scott II has played in 120 games between Triple-A and the majors this season, and he’s within spitting distance of 500 plate appearances.

By any measure, he has had a full season of reps and experience thanks to his good health and the St. Louis Cardinals’ commitment to his playing time, so spending a chunk of his September largely on the bench shouldn’t be a developmental red flag. Still, it’s outside the norm for an organization which has long preached the necessity of playing its top prospects once they reach the big leagues.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that he would “cringe” to see Jordan Walker on the bench in St. Louis, so Walker’s early August call up became just a quick cameo. With Walker back again, manager Oli Marmol has committed to everyday reps for the team’s most important development puzzle.

Michael Siani’s return from a strained oblique, though, is going to cut into Scott’s time in center. That declaration came just two days after the recommitment to Walker.

“I’d like Siani to get the bulk of the time in center field,” Marmol said Sunday in his office at Yankee Stadium. “I think Vic’s made some real improvements offensively, and then he’s continuing to get better defensively with his first step in routes and just overall outfield play.”

Overall outfield play defines a large part of the present gap between Scott and Siani. By almost any measure, Siani has been the best defensive outfielder in the National League in 2024. Only by a fluke of eligibility rules will he be denied his first career Gold Glove; thanks to injury, Siani played in 696 defensive innings in the Cardinals’ first 138 games, and to be eligible for the award, a player must reach 698 defensive innings at that cutoff.

Two innings, six outs, separated Siani from hardware. Much more than that separates Siani from Scott.

Comparing the two defensively does generate an unfairly steep curve for Scott, given that it is a comparison with the absolute best at his position rather than a replacement or even average fielder. Still, the Statcast data is stark. Entering play Tuesday, Scott has had 27 opportunities to record what the data service refers to as “two-star” or better catches; that is, catches with a catch probability of no more than 90 percent. He has converted 14 of those opportunities.

Siani, in 48 such chances, has secured a preposterous 39 outs. Compared to an average center fielder, Siani secures a better jump by an average of three feet; for Scott, that number is 1.9. Outs above average – which is a counting stat, and so would provide Siani with more opportunities – records three OAA for Scott and a preposterous 14 for Siani.

That total puts Siani fourth on the overall MLB leaderboard for outfielders, and the three players ahead of him have all had more than 100 additional attempts. On a rate basis, despite Scott having won a Minor League Gold Glove, there’s hardly a comparison to be drawn at all.

None of that speaks ill of Scott or is definitive proof that Siani is a better player who will have a better career, but it’s equally difficult to totally dismiss that possibility.

Broad perception of the two is undoubtedly altered by the fact that Scott reached the Cardinals with the pedigree of an elite prospect while Siani arrived as an unheralded waiver claim. Siani arguably entered spring training this year as the team’s fifth highest priority center fielder, trailing Scott as well as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar.

Still, Siani is only slightly more than a year and a half older than Scott, and was available to the Cardinals after having been cast aside by the Cincinnati Reds. It would hardly be fair to take their judgment as that of a developmental juggernaut; it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that Siani’s particular skill set may just now be arriving at its full capacity.

Since June 1, Siani has hit .289 with a passable .685 OPS. Scott, since being recalled on August 5, is batting .228 with a .645 OPS. Neither has been an offensive dynamo, but both have shown marked improvements, and both are good enough defenders for a good team to accept that offense given their speed and skills on the other side of the ball.

Siani, however, is not a “good enough” defender. He is an elite defender, and a young player with room to grow.

Had he arrived back with the Cardinals two innings sooner, he would be their best chance at securing postseason hardware in 2024. Scott will seemingly spend the month going through an intensive crash course in outfield defense with Willie McGee, sharpening up his base running skills, and making cameo appearances late in games sprinkled around occasional starts.

It’s entirely possible that his time would be better spent continuing to get everyday reps with Triple-A Memphis. It is difficult to argue that he’s earned time in the big league outfield ahead of Siani. He’s a real player as well, and outside of whatever decision is made with Scott, he’s more than earned his place.