Adam Schiff leads the California Senate money race. Will that matter in Tuesday’s primary?

Adam Schiff is far ahead of his opponents for the California U.S. Senate seat in every way campaign cash is measured–money raised, spent, ads, and so on.

But none of that guarantees a good showing in Tuesday’s primary.

Schiff was down by two to Republican Steve Garvey, who’s been a distant fourth in fundraising among the Senate candidates, in the Feb. 22-27 Berkeley-IGS poll. Schiff led Garvey in an Emerson College poll taken at about the same time, with the Republican in second.

That survey showed roughly one in 10 of voters remain undecided, a bloc that could swing what remains a tight race.

“Money does not always determine election outcomes,” said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former Republican National Committee staffer.

He cited the 2010 California governor’s race. Republican Meg Whitman outspent Jerry Brown, $177 million, most of it her own money, to $36 million. Brown won a third gubernatorial term easily.

Schiff, a Democratic congressman from the Los Angeles area, is vying with Garvey, a former all-star first baseman who’s never run for public office. Also running are Democratic Reps. Katie Porter of Irvine and Barbara Lee of Oakland., among a long list of other candidates.

The top two finishers Tuesday will move on to the November general election to fill the seat now held by Sen. Laphonza Butler. She’s a Democrat who Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed last year to fill the term of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died in September.

Spending is way up

AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, has found Senate primary spending is up 242% over the past three California Senate races dating back to 2016.

As of mid-February, Schiff had $13.7 million on hand. Porter had $4.8 million, Lee $582,123 and Garvey $758,261.

Schiff and his backers have tried to boost Garvey’s stature through ads, figuring he’d be easier to beat in November. While Garvey has not run ads, AdImpact reported that as of Friday, 60% of Schiff’s broadcast airings mention Garvey.

The Berkeley poll shows Schiff would beat Garvey in the fall, 53% to 38% and Porter would also beat Garvey easily. But a Schiff-Porter race, the poll suggested, would be too close to call.

Porter is campaigning as a strong consumer advocate, noting that big corporate interests tend to stay away from her campaign.

“Katie Porter is proud to be the only Democrat in this U.S. Senate race who’s never taken corporate PAC money, refuses donations from federal lobbyists, and won’t cash checks from Big Bank, Big Oil, or Big Pharma executives,” said spokeswoman Lindsay Reilly.

Lee’s camp Tuesday is counting on a strong grassroots get out the vote effort to push into the top tier.

“What we’re seeing is that despite millions being spent on TV, there is low voter turnout. And so talking directly to voters on the ground and getting them to cast their ballot matters and that is what we intend to do from now until election day,” said Tina Olechowski, a Lee campaign spokesperson.

Schiff’s spokesperson pointed to his prolific fundraising as evidence of strong support. He is also taking no corporate political action committee money for this campaign.

“Adam’s campaign is proudly fueled by over 300,000 grassroots supporters from every county in California with an average donation of $36, and he’s running the largest grassroots campaign for U.S. Senate in the state’s history,” said Marisol Samayoa, Schiff for Senate communications director.

Candidates had to file pre-primary reports showing their financial activity through mid-February, and then submit updates to the Federal Election Commission showing last-minute activity.

Where the money comes from and goes

Some of the highlights of those filings, according to the FEC and OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan group that analyzes campaign finance data:

▪ Schiff has a solid lead in money raised. The congressman, well-known nationally because of his leadership efforts in the impeachment of former President Donald Trump, has raised $31.1 million as of mid-February.

Porter has received $27.9 million, which includes about $11 million from her congressional campaign account. Lee has raised about $4.96 million and Garvey at $2.1 million.

▪ Outside spending. Super Political Action Committees can try to influence voters, but are not allowed any contact or coordination with candidates. They can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money.

The Standing Strong Super PAC has spent $8.5 million as of this week, mostly on ads highlighting Garvey’s conservatism. Schiff himself has run ads doing the same.

The aim is believed to try to boost Garvey so Republicans will rally around him and propel him to second place, a strategy that appears to be succeeding.

Kyle Layman, Standing Strong’s executive director, explained in a text to The Bee why the group is running the ads.

Voters “deserve to know the truth about his record of supporting Donald Trump and his agenda,” Layman said. Garvey has said he voted for Trump twice, but will not say who he may vote for this year for president this year. Garvey’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

▪ Retirees are a huge source of campaign funds. Schiff has benefited from $5.2 million in contributions from retirees. Porter has collected $2.25 million, while Lee has received $714,037 and Garvey, $111,330. All figures reflect contributions in the 2023-24 election cycle.

The second biggest group of contributors to Schiff have been lawyers and law firms, at $1.7 million. Topping the list are people associated with the Paul, Weiss firm, which has more than 1,000 attorneys and 10 offices around the world, including three in California. The firm did not respond to a request for comment.

Lawyers are also Lee and Porter’s second biggest source of funds. Attorneys and their firms gave $627,264 to Porter, $289,444 to Lee. and $12,300 to Garvey.

In the Berkeley poll, Schiff led Garvey among voters 65 and older, 35% to 34%. Porter had 13%.

Among younger voters, though, Porter has a big lead. She’s got 30% of the 18 to 29 year old vote. Garvey is next at 10% and Schiff is at 8%. Among 30 to 39 year olds, Porter has 25% while Garvey and Schiff each have 11%.