98% of Californians now in CDC’s ‘high’ COVID-19 level. What does it mean for masks?

The vast majority of California by population is now classified in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “high” community level of coronavirus danger, due to rising case and hospitalization rates brought on by the now-dominant BA.5 variant.

Fifty of the Golden State’s 58 counties are in the high level, according to a weekly update Thursday from the CDC, up from 42 last week.

The eight exceptions are: Glenn, Humboldt, Mendocino, Mono, Santa Cruz, Sierra and Siskiyou counties, all in the medium community level; and tiny Alpine, which has just over 1,000 residents, the state’s lone county in the low level.

Those counties combine for fewer than 650,000 of the state’s 39.5 million residents, meaning the federal agency is now advising more than 98% of Californians – the entire capital region, all of Southern California, all of the San Joaquin Valley and every greater Bay Area county except Santa Cruz – to mask up in indoor public settings.

The California Department of Public Health in a Friday update reported the latest daily COVID-19 case rate at 45.6 per 100,000, a 9% increase from one week earlier.

Statewide test positivity remains high at 16.4%, but is showing early signs of leveling off after being recorded at 16.3% one week earlier.

The four-county Sacramento area remains below the state average for positivity, with Sacramento at 13.4%, Placer at 13.1%, El Dorado at 12.3% and Yolo at 10.1%.

CDPH on Friday reported 4,711 patients in California hospital beds with confirmed COVID-19, including 552 in intensive care units, up 6% and 15% in the past week, respectively.

BA.5, which is more contagious than previous subvariants of omicron and better at evading immune protection, now accounts for close to 80% of cases nationwide and within California, according to the CDC. Experts say the variant is leading to reinfections even for those who recently contracted COVID-19.

What would trigger a mask order for L.A., other counties?

Local health officers across most of the state, including Sacramento and Yolo counties, have said in recent weeks that they would not reinstate an indoor mask order unless hospital capacity is threatened.

The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 has climbed statewide, but growth has slowed in the Sacramento area and in some Bay Area counties.

Hospital leaders have said during the current surge that a significant number of patients are being admitted for other reasons and then incidentally testing positive upon screening. But estimates on that proportion have varied widely, with hospital systems recently reporting anywhere from 30% to 90% of their virus cases as incidental positives.

So far during the current surge, only Alameda County has moved back to a local health order requiring masks, doing so briefly last month as its case and hospitalization rates spiked.

Los Angeles may return to a countywide indoor mask mandate late next week, local health officials said Thursday, barring improving hospital numbers or a significant drop in the county’s infection rate.

The county announced plans several weeks ago to institute a mandate following two consecutive weeks in the CDC’s high community level, which Los Angeles entered July 15. The mask order would then be lifted after two consecutive weeks classified as medium or low.

The hospitalization threshold for the high community level within the CDC’s framework is 10 weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 residents. The CDC on Thursday reported Los Angeles County at 11.7 per 100,000, up from 11 per 100,000 last week.

The rate in the Sacramento region remains higher, recorded Thursday at 15.9 weekly hospital admissions per 100,000, but has plateaued close to that rate for a little more than a month. The capital region’s ongoing surge also took hold a few weeks earlier than that of Southern California, CDPH data show.

Sacramento-area numbers by county

Sacramento County’s latest case rate is 33.4 per 100,000 residents, state health officials said in Friday’s update, less than a 1% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Sacramento County were treating 223 virus patients Thursday, state data show, up from 108 one week earlier. The intensive care unit decreased to 33 from 22.

Placer County’s latest case rate is 24.2 per 100,000 residents, a 13% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Placer County were treating 86 virus patients Thursday, down from 88 one week earlier. The ICU total remained at nine.

Yolo County’s latest case rate is 27.2 per 100,000 residents, a 6% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Yolo County were treating eight virus patients Thursday, down from 11 a week earlier. The ICU total decreased to three from four.

El Dorado County’s latest case rate is 24.9 per 100,000 residents, an 11% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in El Dorado County were treating seven virus patients Thursday, down from 12 a week earlier. The ICU total decreased to one from two.

Sutter County’s latest case rate is 36.1 per 100,000 residents and Yuba County’s is 35.9, each up 11% compared to last week, state health officials reported Friday.

The only hospital in Yuba County, which serves the Yuba-Sutter bicounty area, was treating 13 virus patients Thursday, down from 14 a week earlier. The ICU total held at one.