1 of 32 scenarios will determine Bradley basketball's opponent at Arch Madness

Dave Eminian, Journal Star
Bradley head coach Brian Wardle looks on as the Braves fall behind to rival Illinois State in the second half Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022 at Redbird Arena in Normal. The Braves fell to the Redbirds 74-65.
Bradley head coach Brian Wardle looks on as the Braves fall behind to rival Illinois State in the second half Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022 at Redbird Arena in Normal. The Braves fell to the Redbirds 74-65.

PEORIA — The Bradley Braves will close out the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season Saturday and find out who they will play in the Arch Madness quarterfinals.

Well, maybe. They might have to wait until Sunday to be sure, based on which of 32 scenarios happens on the league's final day.

Bradley hosts Valparaiso on Saturday, while Southern Illinois is at Drake, Indiana State at Illinois State, Missouri State at Evansville, and Loyola at Northern Iowa.

The Braves are virtually locked in as the No. 5 seed.

A well-regarded analytics expert, Matt Hackman, produced 32 scenarios for the how league could finish. In 20 of those outcomes, Bradley ends up the No. 5 seed and faces No. 4 Drake in the quarterfinals. Missouri State is the Bradley opponent in eight of them, and Loyola in four.

STANDINGS: 2021-22 Missouri Valley Conference

How Bradley can face Missouri State

  • Bradley, Indiana State, Drake, Evansville and Loyola win.

  • Bradley, Indiana State, Evansville, Drake, Northern Iowa win.

  • Bradley loses, while Indiana State, Drake, Evansville and Loyola win.

  • Bradley loses, while Indiana State, Drake, Evansville and Northern Iowa win.

  • Bradley loses, while Illinois State, Drakae, Evansville and Loyola win.

  • Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, Evansville and Loyola win.

  • Bradley loses, while Illinois State, Drake, Evansville and Loyola win.

  • Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, Evansville and Northern Iowa win.

Bradley basketball: How the pandemic affects attendance for Bradley basketball, other Peoria teams

Bradley basketball: How Bradley basketball absorbed Drake's best punch and kept on rolling

How Bradley can face Loyola

  • Bradley loses, while Indiana State, Drake, Missouri State and Northern Iowa win.

  • Bradley, Indiana State, Missouri State, Drake and Northern Iowa win.

  • Bradley loses, while Illinois State, Drake, Missouri State, Northern Iowa win.

  • Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, Missouri State and Northern Iowa win.

Hackman says the scenario with the highest odds of happening — 16.7% — is that Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, Missouri State and Loyola will win, and BU will face Drake at St. Louis.

The next highest probability — 10.9% — is Bradley, Illinois State, Drake, Missouri State and Northern Iowa all winning, which puts the Braves against Loyola in St. Louis.

The third best possibility — at 10.8% — has Bradley, Indiana State, Drake, Loyola and Missouri State winning, leaving BU with Drake in St. Louis.

The Braves are virtually locked into that fifth seed, although it comes down to a tiebreaker with Southern Illinois in eight of 32 possibilities. A tie between Bradley and SIU would go to best NET ranking, which won't be known until Sunday.

But the Braves have a 36-place lead over SIU in NET, and it would likely take a combination of a blowout home loss to Valpo for Bradley, with a blowout win by SIU at Drake to knock BU into a sixth seed.

The Loyola at Northern Iowa game is the conference title contest. It and all the other games will likely be over before by the time Bradley tips with Valpo.

"We got that game Saturday to look forward to, need to get a win and get some momentum going into the tournament," Bradley freshman guard Connor Hickman said. "Doesn't matter who we play in St. Louis. We've shown we can play, we just gotta prove it."

Bradley's Ari Boya (1) celebrates his slam-dunk off an alley-oop from Connor Hickman in the second half against Southern Illinois on Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022 at Carver Arena. The Braves defeated the Salukis 70-62.
Bradley's Ari Boya (1) celebrates his slam-dunk off an alley-oop from Connor Hickman in the second half against Southern Illinois on Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022 at Carver Arena. The Braves defeated the Salukis 70-62.

Saying goodbye

Bradley will honor its four senior players in a pre-game ceremony Saturday.

Big center Ari Boya is among them, and while he hasn't made his final decision on whether to come back for an extra year of eligibility or move on, he did have this to say Friday:

"It's going to be special for me," Boya said." I'm the first child in my family to graduate from college. That means so much to me, and I just want to thank all the people, the fans, my coaches and teammates, everyone who helped me get there."

Cameroon to Peoria: How this 7-footer found a home with Bradley basketball

We'll have more from the BU seniors on Saturday.

How to watch or listen, and what to know about Valparaiso at Bradley

When: 7 p.m. Saturday

Where: Carver Arena, Peoria

Watch: ESPN3.

Listen: WMBD 1470-AM, 100.3-FM

Live updates: Throughout the game at pjstar.com.

Records: Bradley 16-13 (10-7), 5th in MVC. Valparaiso 13-16 (6-11), 7th in MVC.

KenPom ranking: Bradley No. 95. Valpo No. 202.

NET ranking: Bradley No. 97. Valpo No. 209.

Head coaches: Bradley, Brian Wardle. Valpo, Matt Lottich.

All-time series: Bradley, 8-5. In 2021-22: Bradley W 71-56.

Bradley: FG 44.5%. 3-point FG 34.3%. Top players: Guard Terry Roberts 14.8 ppg (6th in MVC), 4.1 apg (first in MVC), 5.0 rpg, 1.5 steals (2nd in MVC); forward Rienk Mast 11.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg (first in MVC); forward Malevy Leons 10.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 39.8% from 3, team-best 32 blocks.

Valpo: FG 46.2%. 3-point FG 33.7%. Forward Ben Krikke leads with 14.7 ppg and 4.5 rpg; guard Kobe King at 14.1 ppg and 4.7 rpg; wing Kevion Taylor adds 12.8 ppg, while forward Thomas Kithier grabs 6.7 rpg.

Bravely Speaking

Bradley wing Jayson Kent will play Saturday after missing the previous two games with a wrist injury. ... A Braves win on Saturday will make them 11-7 in the Valley, matching their best MVC record during the last 21 seasons. Bradley won 11 games in 2005-06 and 2019-20 — earning NCAA bids in both seasons. ... Bradley forward Rienk Mast can sew up the MVC rebounding title in Saturday's finale. Mast ranks first in the Valley and 61st nationally with 8.2 rebounds per game. Only three Braves have previously led the league in rebounds in 70 seasons of Valley play: Chet Walker (1961-62), Luke Jackson (1988-89) and Marcellus Sommerville (2003-04). ... Bradley is 5-0 against Valpo in Peoria. ... Valparaiso has used 14 different starting lineups, and no player on the roster has started in every game. ... Valpo big man Ben Krikke has scored in double figures in 10 straight games. ... Valpo's Sheldon Edwards is one of two players in the MVC with 30 or more steals and 20 or more blocked shots. ... Thomas Kithier (Valpo team-best 6.7 rpg) missed Valpo's game against Bradley in January with a back injury.

Dave Eminian is the Journal Star sports columnist, and covers Bradley men's basketball, the Rivermen and Chiefs. He writes the Cleve In The Eve sports column for pjstar.com. Reach him at 686-3206 or deminian@pjstar.com. Follow him on Twitter @icetimecleve.

This article originally appeared on Journal Star: NCAA: Who will Bradley play at Arch Madness? Here are the scenarios

Advertisement