If the NCAA Tournament began today, here’s where experts think Boise State would land

Marcus Shaver Jr.’s ankle injury and a loss to then-No. 22 San Diego State have shuffled Boise State’s NCAA Tournament projections.

With Friday’s 72-52 loss to the Aztecs (18-5, 9-2 MW), the Broncos (18-6, 8-3) fell from a tie for first place into a share of third place in the Mountain West standings.

The drop coincided with a slight dip in the eyes of bracketologists, who now project the Broncos will land as a No. 10 or No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Broncos as a No. 11 and one of the last four teams in. He predicts the Broncos will play in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, a place that has not been kind to them. In 2015 the Broncos drew host Dayton and the Flyers rallied for a 56-55 win. Boise State also lost a First Four game in 2013 to La Salle.

Bill Bender of Sporting News, however, is still high on the Broncos. In his projections released Monday, he predicts the Broncos will be the Mountain West’s automatic qualifier — or Mountain West Tournament winner — and earn a No. 10 seed.

Boise State’s best wins to date, considering NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings, are against Nevada (No. 31), Utah State (No. 33), Texas A&M (No. 38), Colorado (No. 64) and Washington State (No. 80). The Broncos’ losses to San Diego State (No. 22), Nevada (No. 31) and New Mexico (No. 39) could be considered “good” losses.

The Broncos’ only “bad” loss was their home-opening 68-66 setback to South Dakota State (No. 162), which goes down as a Quad 4 loss.

If Nevada and Utah State move into the Top 30 of the NET, those would become Quad 1 victories for the Broncos. As it stands, Texas A&M is Boise State’s only Quad 1 win. Based on the current rankings, Boise State will have a shot at two more Quad 1 wins: vs. San Diego State (Feb. 28) and at Utah State (March 4).

The Mountain West remains on track to send four teams to the NCAA Tournament, with all four major prognosticators in consensus on the participation of San Diego State, New Mexico, Boise State and Nevada. Some earlier projections have also included Utah State.

If the postseason began today, here’s where experts think the Broncos would land.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

Seed: No. 11 (Among last four in)

Opponent: No. 11 Oklahoma State

Region: First Four (West)

First-round location: Dayton, Ohio

Total MW bids: Four (No. 7 San Diego State, No. 10 New Mexico, No. 11 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports

Seed: No. 11

Opponent: No. 6 Missouri

Region: Midwest (Kansas City)

First-round location: Columbus

Total MW bids: Four (No. 6 San Diego State, No. 9 New Mexico, No. 9 Nevada, No. 11 Boise State)

Brian Bennett, The Athletic

Seed: No. 11

Opponent: No. 6 Indiana

Region: East (New York City)

First-round location: Greensboro

Total MW bids: Four (No. 7 San Diego State, No. 9 New Mexico, No. 11 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)

Bill Bender, Sporting News

Seed: No. 10

Total MW bids: Four (No. 7 San Diego State, No. 10 New Mexico, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)