NCAA bracketology: Latest projections for Clemson men’s basketball

With six games left in the regular season, the Clemson men’s basketball team remains in strong position for an NCAA Tournament bid.

But there’s plenty of wiggle room — in both directions.

Heading into a Wednesday night game at Georgia Tech, coach Brad Brownell’s Tigers are 17-8 overall and 7-7 in the ACC with a 98.4% chance to make the tournament, according to projections from the analytics website BartTorvik.com.

The website Bracket Matrix, which aggregates and averages nearly 100 bracket projections from across the country, paints a similar picture: Clemson was included on 98 of 98 projections as of Tuesday with an average seed of 5.30 (in other words, a No. 5 seed).

That’s mostly on account of Clemson’s No. 27 national ranking in the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, and its solid record in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 games as defined by that metric.

Clemson’s seeding, though, could change a lot based on how the team finishes out conference play heading into next month’s conference tournament in Washington, D.C. Here’s a closer look at what’s ahead for the Tigers in the stretch run.

Current Clemson NCAA projections

As previously noted, Clemson is most frequently being projected as a No. 5 seed. Here’s where some notable brackets have the Tigers seeded.

• ESPN: No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 Samford in West Region (Spokane)

• CBS Sports: No. 6 seed vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon in Midwest Region (Pittsburgh)

• Field of 68: No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 App State in South Region

• NCAA.com: No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 Samford in Midwest Region

• USA TODAY: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Washington State in South Region (Omaha)

Clemson’s remaining schedule

After Saturday’s 78-77 loss to N.C. State, Clemson’s third ACC loss by a single point this season, the Tigers have six games left. Three are at home, and three are on the road.

Here’s how those games stack up in terms of projected NET opportunity, per bballnet.com. (The NET tries to quantify the strength of a team’s wins and losses based on location and opponent.)

• Wednesday, Feb 21: at Georgia Tech (Quad 3)

• Saturday, Feb 24: vs. Florida State (Quad 3)

• Tuesday, Feb 27: vs. Pittsburgh (Quad 2)

• Saturday, March 2: at Notre Dame (Quad 3)

• Tuesday, March 5: vs Syracuse (Quad 3)

• Saturday, March 9: at Wake Forest (Quad 1)

Potential outcomes for Clemson basketball

The Tigers can’t gain much over the next three weeks.

But they can lose a lot, in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding.

Faced with four Quad 3 games over their final six contests, Clemson will more or less be fighting to maintain its status as a No. 5 seed entering the ACC Tournament. Inopportune losses could send the Tigers tumbling down the NCAA bracket.

According to the BartTorvik.com Teamcast, if Clemson goes a perfect 6-0 over its last six games to finish 23-8 and 13-7 in the ACC, it would only jump up from a No. 5 seed to the last No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

How about if Clemson goes 4-2 over its final six, with losses against what are likely its two trickiest road opponents, Georgia Tech (Quad 3) and Wake Forest (Quad 1)? On the Teamcast metric, the Tigers fall down to a No. 7 seed.

Bring it down to 3-3 adding in a home loss to Florida State — which would put Clemson’s final ACC record at 10-10 — and the projection has Clemson as the last No. 8 seed on the bracket, a significant drop from its current No. 5 spot.

Naturally, teams want to avoid the 7-10 seed range because a win in a 8-9 or 7-10 matchup usually means a meeting with your region’s No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the Round of 32.

Clemson’s regular-season finale at Wake Forest looms large as a Quad 1 opportunity and could cancel out a bad loss or two down the stretch. Regardless of quadrants, though, a 3-3 record over its final six games (and 10-10 final ACC record) is probably the floor for Clemson if the Tigers want avoid missing a third straight Big Dance.

Over the last five NCAA Tournaments, 28 ACC teams have received at-large bids to the tournament. Of those, only six of the 28 were under .600 in ACC play (most recently 2020-21 Syracuse) and only one of the 28 got into the NCAA Tournament with an ACC record below .500 (2017-18 Syracuse).

What about the ACC Tournament?

This year’s ACC men’s basketball tournament runs March 12-16 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., home of the NBA’s Wizards and NHL’s Capitals.

There’s always a chance Clemson runs the table there and wins the conference tournament championship to secure the ACC’s auto-bid, or jumps up to a No. 4 seed with a few marquee wins at a neutral site, which the NET does value.

But, as previously detailed by The State, the Tigers haven’t been able to count on those sort of runs. Clemson has not won two games at a single ACC tournament since 2007-08, which predates Brownell’s 14-year tenure, and would probably need to reach the semifinals to legitimately sway its projected seeding.