Here’s what NC needs to know about climate change in a new 2,000-page federal report
North Carolina is already facing many of the climate change impacts a new federal report warns about.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment, released in November, warns that a warmer climate will cause higher temperatures, longer droughts, more wildfires and stronger, wetter tropical storms.
Risks to the nation’s homes, agriculture and health will mount without swift and widespread action, the report says. And while reducing emissions might seem expensive, the report says, it would result in wide-ranging benefits.
“This is much worse than the last time we wrote a National Climate Assessment. We have to take these things very ,very seriously. There are some success stories in here, but there aren’t enough,” Kathie Dello, North Carolina’s state climatologist and an author of the assessment’s Southeastern chapter, told The News & Observer.
What you need to know:
What is the National Climate Assessment?
The National Climate Assessment is a report produced every four years by the U.S. Global Change Research Program that updates the state of climate science. It looks at what that science says about how climate will impact a number of facets of human life including agriculture, energy and human health, as well as biological diversity and the environment.
The National Climate Assessment is a technical document and does not offer policy recommendations.
What does the National Climate Assessment say about the Southeast?
“The climate threats are very real and we’re facing them now, and they’re impacting our homes and our health and our livelihoods,” Dello said.
The report warns that population shifts in the Southeast are leaving people at greater risk from the threats of climate change.
The region’s quick growth simply means that more people are exposed to the hotter temperatures and wetter storms that come with a warmer atmosphere. And the decline in population of many of the region’s rural areas is leaving local governments with inadequate resources to shift their planning approaches or build the infrastructure needed to adapt to a warmer world.
“We aren’t going to stop people from moving here, it’s a nice way of life and a nice place to live. We have an opportunity to think about growth in a way that’s not just sprawl and people exacerbating the climate risks,” Dello said.
Additionally, the report warns that historical inequities like redlining have left communities where Black, American Indian and other historically marginalized groups live less prepared to cope with the realities of climate change. Across the country, as well as in North Carolina, heat islands are more frequently found in the communities where redlining was used to discriminate against homebuyers and discourage investment.
How much could sea levels rise?
The Southeast saw sea levels rise about six inches between 1970 and 2020, according to the report.
That’s going to accelerate.
By 2050, sea levels in the Southeast are expected to rise by an average of 16 to 23 inches, with the Outer Banks seeing an increase of 15 to 22 inches.
The Southeast is more vulnerable to sea level rise than other regions of the country due to sinking land, groundwater pumping and projected shifts in global currents, according to the report.
What does it say about climate change in the Triangle?
The National Climate Assessment offers an interactive atlas that is designed for policymakers and the public to use to see how a warmer world will affect their communities. Its information is presented at the county level.
Under a scenario where the Earth’s temperature warms two degrees Celsius — 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit — from pre-industrial levels, Wake County is projected to:
Experience 17 more days with temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience five more days with temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience 30 more nights where temperatures remain above 70 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience about 6% more rain than the average from 1991 to 2020.
Experience a 24% increase in days with extreme rain events, defined as storms in the top 1% of all-time rainfalls, than it saw between 1991 and 2020.
Under a scenario where the Earth’s temperature warms three degrees Celsius — 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit — above pre-industrial levels, Wake County is projected to:
Experience 39 more days with temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience 13 more days with temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience 53 more nights where temperatures remain above 70 degrees Fahrenheit than it averaged between 1991 and 2020.
Experience about 7% more rain than the average from 1991 to 2020.
Experience a 30% increase in days with extreme rain events than it saw between 1991 and 2020.
How is climate affecting human health in the Southeast?
From air pollution to air conditioning to heat stroke, climate change is already affecting the health of people living in North Carolina.
The report finds that large swaths of Eastern North Carolina both have high proportions of Black, Hispanic or American Indian populations and have people who spend a disproportionately high amount of their income on their energy bills.
That makes it more difficult for those communities to protect themselves when temperatures rise, as is likely to happen more frequently in a changing climate. Heat illness can cause nausea and faintness, with organ failure and even death occurring in the most severe cases.
Earlier this year, a North Carolina farmworker died during a stretch of hot days.
Climate change is also likely to degrade air quality, according to the report.
Increased smog, which will form more easily in a warmer atmosphere, is one way for that to occur. More smog is projected to cause an increase in deaths related to small particulate matter.
The other is in the form of wildfire smoke, such as the smoke from the Canadian wildfires that brought hazy skies and a scent of smoke to the state this summer or the fires that have been burning in Western North Carolina this fall.
“There are some reasons to expect that North Carolina might be among the places where air pollution will get worse, in part because of the tree cover — especially pine forests — that emit natural forms of air pollution, so volatile organics that mix with human-caused air pollution,” Jason West, a UNC Chapel Hill professor who was the lead author of the report’s air quality chapter, told The N&O.
Are there solutions?
Yes, but the report warns that they’re not being implemented fast enough or at nearly the scale necessary to avoid the most significant impacts of climate change.
“The extent of climate change that we see is within the world’s control, so we have the ability to reduce emissions and keep it from getting worse, or we can continue to emit and experience a greater degree of climate change,” West said.
While staving off the worst impacts of climate change will likely develop new technology, West said there are also existing tools that can limit those emissions. And those technologies frequently have additional benefits such as reducing air pollution or providing new jobs.
He pointed to replacing fossil fuels like coal and natural gas with wind, solar and possibly nuclear energy as one area where technology already exists but needs to be scaled up. Another would be increasing the use of energy efficiency in homes and vehicles in order to drive down the demand for energy.
And the third would be limiting the use of natural gas, which is mainly made up of methane. In addition to being a powerful greenhouse gas, West said, methane also contributes to the formation of air pollution once it is released into the atmosphere.
“We can get a long way toward our goals using the technologies that we have today,” West said.
Will those changes be enough?
Failing to make changes to the utility grid, roads and transportation systems now will cost North Carolina consumers hundreds of millions dollars by 2050, the report says.
For instance, without adapting North Carolina’s electrical grid consumers are projected to spend $347 million on energy infrastructure costs in 2050. Upgrading the grid to prepare for climate change would lead to $177 million spent on energy infrastructure.
The report warns that incremental solutions may not be enough to provide adequate protection against the worst impacts of climate change.
An example of this would be using air conditioning to cool a home during a hot day. That provides protection as long as the power stays on, but cities and buildings may need to be redesigned to stay cool more easily, driving electricity costs down and helping protect people in the event of blackouts.
And putting homes on stilts may keep floodwaters out today, but avoiding the costs associated with rebuilding may mean avoiding rebuilding or building new homes in flood-prone areas. That would mean reversing a development trend in North Carolina, where N.C. State researchers found that more than 47,000 homes had been built in the 100-year floodplain between 1996 and 2017.
“We have gotten to a point where we need to develop technologies to deal with this because we didn’t address the problems 30 years ago,” Dello said. “To me, it’s not great but I think it’s the reality of the situation.”
This story was produced with financial support from the Hartfield Foundation and 1Earth Fund, in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners, as part of an independent journalism fellowship program. The N&O maintains full editorial control of the work.
