NBA playoff betting, odds: Where's the value in the NBA play-in tournament?
Anyone who said it's about the journey, and not the destination, has never bet on the NBA. The regular season is one of the sport's most challenging to handicap on a nightly basis. The erratic scheduling, motivational spots, and maddening last-minute rest nights declared minutes before the game, all have us feeling a mix of relief and accomplishment by the time the postseason comes along. Rest assured, six months later, we have meaningful games to wager on.
It starts tonight with the NBA's play-in tournament as four teams in each conference battle it out for the remaining two playoff spots. The No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchups feature some household names we never would have guessed to be in this position. The action starts with Jimmy Butler's Miami Heat facing the Atlanta Hawks, followed by LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in the nightcap. The Heat are currently 5.5-point favorites at BetMGM, while the Lakers are much larger favorites (-8.5).
BetMGM also offers the ability to wager on a specific team's odds of surviving the play-in tournament and securing a playoff spot as a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. This market piqued my interest. I immediately thought of the Western Conference, where the Lakers are a massive -2000 to make the playoffs. Not that I would ever make that wager, especially since it's much cheaper to just bet the Lakers at -350 on the moneyline tonight.
However, it does give us a glimpse of the price inconsistencies that we can take advantage of in these markets. So rather than looking at the Lakers with an inflated price, let's see if there is a wager to make with the two teams out West with the longest odds to join the Lakers as the potential 8th seed. The 9 vs. 10 game winner between New Orleans and Oklahoma City will catch a spiraling Minnesota team, assuming the Lakers handle business. Is there value in either of these two teams?
New Orleans Pelicans to make the playoffs - Yes +300
Oklahoma City Thunder to make the playoffs - Yes +750
The loser of the game between the Pelicans and Thunder is eliminated, which makes your opinion on tomorrow night's result the ultimate driver of your bet. The Pelicans won three of the four over the Thunder during the season, but Oklahoma City played them close in all three losses, keeping them within two baskets. It's also important to note that both teams were missing key players in several of the matchups, making it even more difficult to get a feel for how the teams will look against each other at full strength in an elimination game. Do you value teams with experience in this format? Because that's New Orleans. The No. 9 seed is familiar territory for the Pels, who pushed themselves into the postseason from the same position just last year. Are the Thunder the 2023 version of the Pelicans? Oklahoma City is young, hungry and playing house money, much like New Orleans last season.
I do expect its lack of size to be a challenge against New Orleans. The Pelicans have the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA, and the Thunder won't be able to take advantage of their vulnerability at the rim like some other teams. Brandon Ingram versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be appointment viewing, but New Orleans having C.J. McCollum to help shoulder the scoring load will be critical late as it's expected this one comes down to the final few possessions.
Everything points to New Orleans, but I can't argue with anyone who likes Oklahoma City's value at +750. The bad vibes from the Timberwolves give the winner real potential to cash this bet and qualify as the No. 8 seed. You can also bet Minnesota to miss the playoffs at +250, but personally, I'd rather have a Pelicans or Thunder ticket at better odds. The dynamic of Minnesota being stuck in turmoil, combined with the Lakers' position as strong favorites, gives us a chance to buy low on two teams that are currently underrated in the market. It's New Orleans for me, but Oklahoma City holds some intriguing value as well.
