NBA Finals preview: How will Heat defend Jokic? Can the Heat play zone vs. Nuggets? And more

The 2023 NBA champion will either be the Miami Heat or Denver Nuggets.

The Eastern Conference’s eighth-seeded Heat and Western Conference’s top-seeded Nuggets are the last two teams standing. Game 1 of the NBA Finals is Thursday at Ball Arena (8:30 p.m., ABC).

The Heat lost both regular-season matchups against the Nuggets and has struggled against Denver in recent years. The Heat has dropped six straight games and 11 of its previous 13 meetings against the Nuggets dating back to the 2016-17 season.

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Here are five questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Nuggets series:

What will be the Heat’s defensive game plan against Nuggets All-Star center Nikola Jokic?

Shutting down Jokic is unrealistic at this point, but the Heat must find a way to make things tough on him.

Jokic has probably been the NBA’s best player this postseason, averaging a triple-double with 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game in this year’s playoffs while shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from three-point range. He has already set a new NBA record with eight triple-doubles this postseason.

Heat center Bam Adebayo is arguably the best defender in the NBA and he will spend most of the Finals as Jokic’s primary defender. That’s a good thing for Miami.

But the issue is not even Adebayo has had much success against Jokic in past matchups.

On the 75 possessions Adebayo spent as his primary defender this regular season, according to NBA tracking data, Jokic totaled 20 points on 9-of-15 (60 percent) shooting from the field and dished out eight assists.

On the 70 possessions Adebayo spent as his primary defender last season, Jokic recorded 17 points on 8-of-12 (66.7 percent) shooting from the field and 10 assists.

There’s no stopping Jokic, but it’s important to take something away from him. That’s hard because Jokic can hit threes, make midrange shots, create offense out of post-ups and seemingly always find the open teammate when extra defenders are thrown his way.

Adebayo hinted after the Heat’s Game 7 win in Boston that the strategy may be to let Jokic play as a scorer and try to limit his assists, which could mean Miami will allow Adebayo to defend Jokic one-on-one in most situations.

“The biggest thing for us is try to limit his assists,” Adebayo said. “It sounds easier said than done. But biggest thing for us is watching film and figuring that out.”

It’s important to note that Nuggets guard Jamal Murray has also been one of the league’s best players this postseason. Murray is averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 48 percent from the field and 39.8 percent on threes during this year’s playoffs.

The Nuggets generate a lot of their offense through the Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll, and the Heat will need to find a way to limit that dynamic action to win this series.

Running pick-and-rolls at Jokic and making him defend in space is one way the Heat can try to wear him down. And running screens at Murray to try to get him switched onto Butler to create a mismatch in the post is one way to try to take advantage of Murray on the defensive end.

Another area to keep an eye on: The Nuggets don’t commit many turnovers, which has led opponents to score a league-low 13.5 points per game off Denver turnovers during this year’s playoffs.

On the other side, scoring off turnovers is a big part of the Heat’s formula. Miami has scored an NBA-high 19.3 points off opponent’s turnovers per game in the playoffs.

“That’s a battle that’s going to be really important, and we can’t turn the ball over,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said.

Can the Heat’s incredible three-point shooting this postseason continue in the NBA Finals?

By now, it’s well-documented that the Heat was not a good three-point shooting team this regular season.

Miami closed the regular season with the NBA’s fourth-worst team three-point percentage at 34.4 percent.

But in the playoffs, the Heat has shot an NBA-best 39 percent from three-point range on 33.6 attempts per game. The Nuggets are right behind the Heat with the league’s second-best three-point percentage in this year’s playoffs at 38.6 percent.

Three-point shooting has been one of the driving forces behind the Heat’s historic playoff run.

How has the Heat’s three-point shooting spiked in the playoffs?

Caleb Martin, who shot 35.6 percent on threes this regular season, has made 43.8 percent of his threes in the playoffs.

Gabe Vincent, who shot 33.4 percent on threes this regular season, has hit 39 percent of his threes in the playoffs.

Duncan Robinson, who shot 32.8 percent on threes this regular season, has converted on 44.6 percent of his threes in the playoffs.

Kevin Love, who shot 29.7 percent on threes this regular season after joining the Heat in February, has shot 36.8 percent from deep in the playoffs.

For perspective on just how awesome the shot-making has been this postseason, the Heat’s 89 made threes in the conference finals is the most any team has made in the East finals in league history, according to StatMuse.

The Heat is also on pace to become just the fifth team in NBA history to shoot 39 percent or better on more than 30 three-point attempts per game during a single playoff run that has lasted at least 10 games. The others were the the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers, 2016-17 Cavaliers and 2020-21 Utah Jazz.

Will the Heat’s zone be effective against the Nuggets?

The Heat’s hybrid 2-3 zone has been a weapon throughout the regular season and playoffs.

The Heat set a new modern-day NBA record for the most zone possessions played in a regular season this season and has leaned on that scheme in important moments during the playoffs.

Unsurprisingly, no team has used more zone than Miami this postseason. The Heat is allowing just 0.91 points per possession on 245 zone possessions during this year’s playoffs compared to 0.99 points per possession on 1,383 man possessions, according to Synergy Sports.

In the East finals, those splits were even more dramatic.

The Celtics scored just 0.76 points per possession against the Heat’s zone and 1.05 points per possession against the Heat’s man in that seven-game series.

But the Heat may not play as much zone in the NBA Finals because the Nuggets finished the regular season as the league’s second-most efficient offense against zone, according to Synergy Sports. Jokic’s quality outside shot and unique passing skills make it very tough for teams to play zone against the Nuggets when he’s on the court.

“The key to going up against a zone is good shooting,” Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon said. “That always helps. If you’ve got some lethal shooters out there, you can shoot people out of the zone. Ball movement, patience, attacking the zone, the middle of the zone. Really, the middle of the zone. That’s what unlocks it all.”

None of this will be easy for the Heat, as the Nuggets finished the regular season with the league’s fifth-best offensive rating. Denver has the NBA’s top offensive rating in the playoffs.

Can the Heat’s supporting cast continue to step up around Adebayo and Butler?

Adebayo and Butler will need to play like the Heat’s two best players in this series to give Miami a chance to win the championship.

But so much of the Heat’s success during this year’s playoffs stems from the play from those around Adebayo and Butler.

Martin has been one of the league’s breakout stars this postseason, averaging 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game while shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from three-point range in the playoffs.

Martin, who started the final two games of the East finals after playing as a reserve, could again be used as a starter in the NBA Finals against a Nuggets team that starts the 6-8 Gordon at power forward.

Then there’s Vincent, who’s averaging 13.1 points and 3.9 assists per game while shooting 39 percent from three-point range during this year’s playoffs.

Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Robinson will also be relied on to provide consistent scoring to keep up with the Nuggets’ high-powered offense. It remains to be seen how veteran big men Kevin Love and Cody Zeller will be used in the NBA Finals after falling out of the rotation toward the end of the East finals.

Obviously, the potential return of guard Tyler Herro would add another scorer to the Heat’s mix. Herro is hopeful he’ll be able to return at some point during the NBA Finals after breaking his right hand in the first game of Miami’s playoff run more than a month ago.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets rely mostly on their starting lineup but do have some depth off the bench in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. By the end of the West finals, those were the only two players the Nuggets were playing off their bench to complete their short seven-man rotation.

Will the altitude in Denver be a real advantage for the Nuggets?

The Nuggets make sure to remind visiting teams about it with 5,280 printed inside the lane on both ends of their home court to symbolize Denver’s mile high altitude.

Playing at that altitude definitely requires an adjustment, but it’s hard to know exactly how much of advantage that truly is for the Nuggets.

“You can’t stress out about it,” Vincent said of the altitude.

But the Nuggets did finish this regular season with second-best home record at 34-7 and are a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs.

The Heat has also dropped six straight games against the Nuggets in Denver. The last time the Heat won in Denver was in 2016.

“You see it all throughout the season when teams come in here,” Malone said. “The altitude is real. I think they got in [early Tuesday morning], so they’re going to try to acclimate as quickly as possible.”

Another edge the Nuggets hold is the rest advantage. While the Heat will have two days off before Game 1 of the Finals after closing its seven-game East finals series with the Celtics on Monday, the Nuggets will have nine days off before the start of the Finals after completing the 4-0 sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the West finals on May 22.