How do national writers view the Milwaukee Brewers chances in 2024? Not great

The 2024 Major League Baseball season kicks off for the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday in New York, and the Brewers head into the season as reigning champions in the National League Central with a 92-win campaign in 2023.

Here's how national writers view the Central in 2024. And spoiler alert: It doesn't often include the Brewers in the playoff mix.

ESPN has an interesting pick for one of the postseason awards

ESPN writers chose the Cubs to win the Central pretty overwhelmingly, with some love for the Reds as well. The Brewers and Cardinals each received two votes out of 26 voters for first place.

But the writers did pick Jackson Chourio as the National League rookie of the year, giving him nine votes to rank ahead of newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers (6 votes), Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants (6) and fellow 20-year-old outfielder Jackson Merrill of the Padres and Pittsburgh pitcher Paul Skenes (both with 2).

"I remember when Chourio was having his breakout season in 2022 and I asked a pro scout how high up I should move him in my midseason top 50 prospects update," Kiley McDaniel wrote. "He argued for top 10 and when I brought up some concerns, he said: "Look, the scouts that have seen him think he has three 7s." He means three of his five tools (power, speed, arm) are a 7 on the 2-8 scale, or 70 on the 20-80 scale, while the other two might both be 60s. How many guys in the big leagues can match that? It's a single-digit number, and it might be as small as three. Add on top of that how highly Milwaukee raves about Chourio's makeup and it's hard to justify picking anyone else."

The panel also saw former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes as winner of the American League Cy Young.

Three last place votes for Milwaukee from panel of six experts

Six experts weighed in from CBS Sports, and only one had the Brewers even as high as second place. Five of the six panelists chose the Cubs to win the NL Central, and one chose the Cardinals.

Three of the six picked the Brewers to finish in last place, which Milwaukee hasn't done since 2004, before Mark Attanasio bought the franchise.

"I think the AL East and NL Central are going to be the most interesting divisions, but for very different reasons," Kate Feldman wrote. "Everyone but the Red Sox should be in the hunt for the AL East title, and I wouldn't be surprised if at least two of them creep close to 100 wins. The NL Central is nowhere near as competitive but I think most of those five will be in the race late too, just closer to something like 85 wins."

One of the six experts put their money on Jackson Chourio to win rookie of the year, and three of the six chose ex-Brewers manager Craig Counsell, now leading the Cubs, as manager of the year.

'I'm having a very hard time seeing how they'll piece together 162 starts from this roster'

Keith Law of The Athletic predicts an 84-win season for the Brewers, good for second place behind the Cubs and one game ahead of the Cardinals.

"The Brewers are down from last year, but I wouldn’t count them out, even after losing their manager — Craig Counsell grew tremendously over the course of his time there to go from 'well, he’s not hurting the team' to a really strong manager in-game and in the clubhouse — and their No. 1 starter," Law wrote. "They’re still going to be among the best defensive units in the NL, and they’ve got some surpluses on the diamond, with Tyler Black lacking a place to play right now, two real shortstops in Willy Adames and Joey Ortiz, and one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball in Joey Wiemer. I’m having a very hard time seeing how they’ll piece together 162 starts from this roster, though, with only one guy (Freddy Peralta) who threw 150 innings last year — and he missed half of 2022."

Jim Bowden of The Athletic also puts Chourio at No. 2 in his NL rookie of the year rankings behind Yamamoto.

'Too many things working against the Brewers this season'

Yahoo! Sports writer Russell Dorsey sees the Brewers with an 80-82 record, third in the Central.

"The Brewers don’t have a bad roster, but they have lots of unproven talent," Dorsey wrote. "Outside of Contreras, Yelich, Hoskins and Adames, there are a lot of unknowns and question marks. Who among Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang will make an impact? Who will step up in the bullpen with Williams out? Ultimately, there are too many things working against the Brewers this season, and after making the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, Milwaukee won’t have the same luck this year."

'Considerable downside potential' but maybe a glimmer of optimism?

Zach Kram, baseball writer for The Ringer, ranked the Brewers 18th among MLB teams, though that was at least one spot ahead of the Reds.

"Burnes, Counsell, and former president of baseball operations David Stearns are gone, and Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff are hurt," Kram wrote. "That’s five of the most important figures from the Brewers’ recent run of contention all out (whether temporarily or permanently)."

"Milwaukee still deserves some benefit of the doubt because of that recent success; other than the 2020 season, when they went 29-31, the Brewers have had at least 86 wins every year since 2016. But the Brewers have considerable downside potential this season, with the rotation looking shakier than ever and the offense relying on a bevy of unproven youngsters, led by elite prospect Jackson Chourio."

Oddsmakers don't like the Brewers, either

BetMGM gives the Brewers +750 odds to win the Central; that's ranked fourth of the five division teams. Rankings systems from Fangraphs and Pecota have been slightly more bullish than the 76.5 wins that BetMGM sets as the Milwaukee win total, but they still see the Brewers as a .500 team at best.

DraftKings also gives the Brewers +750 odds. Among the major betting sites, the most bullish mark is +650

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: How do national writers view the Milwaukee Brewers chances in 2024?