National Hurricane Center tracking 'robust tropical wave.' What it could mean for Georgia
In a rush? Here's everything you need to know — in less than a minute — about what's happening in the tropics.
Chances have increased slightly for when a tropical wave approaching Florida and the United States could develop, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
For the first time, the National Hurricane Center is giving a low chance — 10% — for development over the next 48 hours. Chances for development over the next seven days remains the same, at 60%.
Forecasters with the Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form this weekend.
Where it could develop remains unknown and ranges from over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwesternAtlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it could become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather meteorologists said development "may be slow initially ... but it may strengthen as is approaches Florida this weekend with an uptick of downpours, thunderstorms and surf."
Don't be confused by the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map. Although the colored area may look like the Hurricane's Center "cone of concern," the orange area on the agency's tropical outlook map actually signifies where a tropical cyclone could develop, not where a storm could go.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term that covers all tropical systems, including tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. Aug. 1 as forecasters track the system:
Tropical wave could become tropical depression
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwest over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.
Residents in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
Storm tracker: Monitor tropical wave as it moves toward Florida
Will this tropical wave strengthen over or near Florida?
Florida residents on both the east and west coasts and Panhandle — should watch this tropical wave closely and be prepared, since "the scope of rain, wind and sea impacts will depend on the track and strength of the system," according to AccuWeather.
The tropical wave has been battling dry air and wind shear as it moves west. Both help prevent development or strengthening of tropical systems. That is expected to change very soon.
By Wednesday, it was better organized than earlier in the week but it still lacks a well-defined center. Once that forms, forecasters will have a better idea on where it will go and how fast it could strengthen.
"Should it evolve quickly, it will be more likely to track northward along the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula or just offshore over the Atlantic.
"If it remains relatively weak, then it is more likely to drift toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico," according to AccuWeather.
It's important to note that in either scenario, "warm waters could allow the system to gain strength quickly from later this weekend to early next week."
What impact can Georgia expect from tropical wave?
"Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
"Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least," AccuWeather said.
"As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.
"Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf Coast."
US East Coast could see bands of heavy rain as tropical wave develops
"When a well-established tropical storm or hurricane pushes toward the eastern U.S. from the Atlantic, a band of heavy rain sometimes develops hundreds of miles away over land," AccuWeather said.
"Beginning later this weekend, such a boundary may develop near the mid-Atlantic."
Adding to the potential for rain through the weekend is a non-tropical system moving into the area from the Midwest. That is expected to "set off locally heavy and gusty showers and thunderstorms in the Northeast."
What does the colored area on the NOAA map mean?
The striped areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
No matter where the tropical wave goes, expect surf and seas to build well in advance of it, along with dangerous rip currents, AccuWeather said.
"All that can be said with confidence is that elevated rain chances are probable in the Florida peninsula this weekend," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. " It’ll take a few more days to sort out what may become of this messy wave.
"Given current trends, there’s a fair chance that 'something' forms over the weekend in the general vicinity of the Florida peninsula, though a wild card is how much the wave is disrupted by land interaction over the next few days."
Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Hurricane forecast: A rainy Florida sideswipe or a festering Gulf storm threat?
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: Tropics update: Tropical wave tracker, Florida storm impact
