National Hurricane Center showing tropical disturbance southeast of Florida
The National Hurricane Center is taking notice of a tropical disturbance southeast of Florida, according to the latest tropical outlook.
That's how fast conditions can change in the tropics. Since May 15, when the Hurricane Center started issuing its daily tropical outlooks, no tropical cyclone activity has been expected over the next two to seven days, including at the 2 a.m. outlook.
The system over the southwestern Atlantic near Hispaniola currently has a low chance for development.
Predictions from the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and Colorado State Universitypredict the season will be very active due to the combination of La Niña and extremely warm water temperatures. Both favor the development of tropical cyclones.
While the official start of hurricane season is June 1, tropical storms and hurricanes have formed earlier. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Most of those pre-season storms formed in May.
In 2021, Tropical Storm Ana formed May 22 and in 2020, there were two May tropical storms: Arthur on May 16 and Bertha on May 27.
The first named storm for 2024 will be Alberto.
What is Memorial Day weekend forecast for Florida?
Conditions are looking pretty good around the state over the three-day Memorial Day weekend, although you can expect hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Temperatures across most of the state are forecast to be in the 90s. Heat index in several areas could reach 100 to 104.
There is a small chance for daily thunderstorms in South Florida.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. May 23:
What is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Tropical disturbance: A large area of cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Atlantic is associated with a surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this system a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola in the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive, however, some slight tropical or subtropical development is possible while the low moves northeast through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted by tropical activity?
It's too early to tell whether the disturbance will impact Florida.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking tropical disturbance south of Florida as holiday nears
