NASCAR betting, odds: Richmond is the first of three short tracks in a row for the Cup Series

Nick Bromberg

NASCAR’s short track season is here.

Sunday’s race at Richmond (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) is the first short track race of the season and the first of three consecutive races at short tracks. After Richmond, the Cup Series heads to Bristol to run on the dirt and then to Martinsville.

All three tracks are very different from each other and Richmond hasn’t raced like a typical short track for quite some time. Cautions are in short supply and the spring race a year ago turned into a race of tire strategy.

Six of the last seven races at Richmond have included just five caution flags and the other one had just three cautions. When you consider that two of those cautions are pre-planned for the ends of the first two stages, that means we can count on about three natural cautions to happen on Sunday.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA - AUGUST 14: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, William Byron, driver of the #24 Liberty University Chevrolet, and Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Freight Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on August 14, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Kyle Larson, William Byron and Denny Hamlin are among the top six favorites to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) (Jared C. Tilton via Getty Images)

The 400-lap race last spring had five cautions and featured green-flag runs of 151 laps to start the second stage and 137 laps to end the race after a three-car crash on the backstretch. With the significant tire fall-off at the track and the multiple grooves in the corners, Denny Hamlin passed William Byron with six laps to go to get the win. Hamlin worked his way through the field after a late pit stop and used his fresher tires to make up time and pass Byron for the lead.

Not so coincidentally, Byron and Hamlin are among the two favorites to win on Sunday. So is Kevin Harvick, the driver who won at Richmond in August. Here’s what you need to know to bet the race. All odds are from BetMGM.

The favorites

  • William Byron (+500)

  • Kevin Harvick (+600)

  • Kyle Larson (+600)

  • Christopher Bell (+800)

  • Denny Hamlin (+900)

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+900)

Byron has just one top-five finish in nine Richmond starts but has been the fastest driver so far this season. Harvick finished second in the spring race a year ago before winning the summer race. He’s perfect for the tire management style that’s needed at Richmond. Larson’s only win at Richmond came in 2017 and he’s finished in the top 20 in each of his last five starts at the track.

Bell leads the Gibbs brigade in the odds and in average finish. Bell has the best average finish (6.0) of any driver across his five starts even though he hasn’t won. Hamlin has four wins in 32 starts and 21 top-10 finishes while Truex has three wins and 16 top 10s in 33 starts. He’s our pick to win.

Good mid-tier value

  • Ross Chastain (+1800)

  • Tyler Reddick (+1800)

Chasten has finished 18th and 19th in his two races at Richmond for Trackhouse, though he was seventh in the second race in 2021 while driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. Reddick hasn’t finished in the top 10 at Richmond but he has four top-20 finishes in five starts.

Don’t bet this driver

  • Ryan Blaney (+1600)

Blaney’s trending the right direction at Richmond, though his history at the track makes us hesitant this weekend. He has three top-10 finishes in 13 starts and they’ve all come in his last three starts. His best career finish at the track is seventh.

Looking for a long shot?

  • Austin Cindric (+8000)

We’ve said this before about Cindric, but these odds for a driver in good equipment are worth the flier. He was 12th in the most recent Richmond race.

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