What must happen for Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs and what leaves them at risk

The night began with NBC’s Cris Collinsworth speaking of the Dolphins as Super Bowl contenders.

It ended with this sobering conclusion: The Dolphins — per the standings and the eye test — seem closer to either missing the playoffs or just barely making it than playing into February.

The Dolphins’ 23-17 loss to the Chargers on Sunday night left them long shots to win the AFC East and facing the likelihood of opening the playoffs on the road against a very good team — if they make it at all.

Miami (8-5) stands sixth in the conference, one game ahead of the Chargers (7-6), who surpassed the 7-6 Jets for the seventh and final playoff seed. (The Chargers have a slightly better conference record than the Jets.) But the Chargers own the tiebreaker with Miami and have an easier remaining schedule.

And the fifth-seeded Bengals (9-4) not only have a better record than Miami, but also own the tiebreaker against the Dolphins.

But here’s the good news: Even with a loss at Buffalo, the Dolphins can make the playoffs by beating the Patriots and Jets, regardless of the result of a home game against the Green Bay Packers.

The Dolphins, beyond the Saturday night game at Buffalo on a short week, play host to the Packers on Christmas, then play at New England on Jan. 1 and then close at home against the Jets, who have a defense far superior to the Chargers unit that held Tua Tagovailoa to 10-for-28 passing and limited the Dolphins’ offense to 219 yards.

Conversely, the Chargers play Tennessee, at the Colts, then the Rams and then at Denver.

If the Chargers leapfrog Miami, then the Dolphins must hope that the Jets or Patriots (6-6 entering Monday night’s game in Arizona) do not leapfrog them for the final playoff spot.

The Dolphins still have a 73 percent chance to make the playoffs, per fivethirtyeight.com’s postseason calculator.

They would fall a bit to 68 percent if the Dolphins lose at Buffalo, and to 63 percent if the Dolphins lose in Buffalo and the Jets beat visiting Detroit on Sunday.

If the Dolphins lose to the Bills and the Jets beat the Lions, both Miami and New York would be 8-6, but the Jets would own the tiebreaker, at least heading into their Jan. 8 finale.

The next division tiebreaker — after head-to-head — is division record. If the Dolphins beat the Jets on Jan. 8 to split the season series, Miami would own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. Here’s why: If the Dolphins lose at the Bills and Patriots, their division record would be 2-3. The Jets’ division record already is 2-3.

So if Miami wins the Jan. 8 finale and the teams have the same record, Miami would go to the playoffs, presuming the Patriots don’t bump both of them. So if the Dolphins get to 10 wins by beating the Patriots and Jets, they’re in the playoffs.

But if the Jets win the Jan. 8 finale and the teams have the same record, the Jets would finish ahead of Miami and knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs — if (and it’s a big if) the Chargers can hold onto their precarious playoff spot.

The Jets finish with home games against Detroit and Jacksonville, and then play Seattle on the road. So if the Dolphins and Jets are tied after next weekend, there’s a decent chance a playoff berth will be on the line when the teams meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 18.

The Dolphins’ expectations — at least before their two-game California trip crashed and burned — far exceeded sneaking in the playoffs as a wild card. Keep in mind that all three wild-card teams play on the road in the first weekend of the playoffs. The division winners get home field that first weekend — regardless of their records — with the top seed getting a bye.

So the wild-card team with the worst record (the seventh seed) plays at the division winner with the second best record, which would be the 10-3 Chiefs at the moment.

With Miami now two games behind 10-3 Buffalo, the Dolphins have only a 7 percent chance to win the AFC East and get that first-round home game.

Those division-winning odds would shrink to 0.5 percent if Miami loses Saturday at Buffalo (8:15 p.m., NFL Network, CBS-4). If the Bills win on Saturday, the Dolphins would need to win their last three and the Bills would need to lose their last three for Miami to win the division.

And the odds of Miami winning the division would be only 29 percent if the Dolphins win at Buffalo, even though Miami would then own the tiebreaker with the Bills. Here’s why: Even with an upset victory on Saturday, Miami would need to either win its final three and hope the Bills lose once among its remaining games (at Chicago, at Cincinnati and home against New England) or the Dolphins would need to win two of their final three and hope the Bills lose twice.

Unless the Dolphins can overcome great odds to win the AFC East, the best-case scenario would be hoping to finish with the best record among the wild-card teams, which likely would require a 3-1 finish at the very least. That would likely mean a road game at the weakest of the division winners, probably the 7-6 Tennessee Titans.

For Miami, that fifth-seed scenario could be achieved by winning out after losing at Buffalo; by the Chargers losing once; and by the Bengals beating the Ravens in Ohio on Jan. 8 and Baltimore losing at least one other game (at Cleveland or home to Atlanta or Pittsburgh). That scenario would leave the Dolphins and Ravens with the same record and Miami with the fifth seed because it owns the tiebreaker with Baltimore.