Mussatto: Making Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP case in reveal of NBA awards ballot

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might never have a better MVP case than he does this season.

His individual greatness was the driving force (literally) behind the Thunder nabbing the No. 1 seed in the West. OKC was the surprise team of the season.

The 25-year-old Gilgeous-Alexander might reach another level individually, he always has, but will he ever get a bigger team context bump?

Based on the sportsbooks, Gilgeous-Alexander is more likely to finish third in MVP voting than first. Dallas’ Luka Doncic, not SGA, was hyped down the stretch as the biggest threat to snatch the award from presumed favorite and two-time winner Nikola Jokic. Doncic surged when SGA, due to a quad contusion, slowed.

Maybe the Thunder getting the No. 1 seed will swing what appears to be a race for second behind Jokic.

“I hope I get it,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “I think all the guys are deserving, all have their case. Whatever happens, happens.”

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Daigneault, not one who enjoys discussing awards, offered this take: “There is not a night when I don’t feel like we have the best player on the floor. We’re a top-five defense, top-five offense. He’s a two-end player that contributes to both of those things … There’s no one I’d rather have on our team than him.”

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I didn’t see a scenario in which the Thunder got the No. 1 seed and Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t win MVP. But here we are.

OKC and Denver both finished 57-25, with the Thunder winning the tiebreaker for beating the Nuggets three games to one in the regular season. Advantage SGA.

The Thunder was seven games better than Doncic’s fifth-seed Mavericks. Advantage SGA.

Under the antiquated MVP voting formula, Gilgeous-Alexander would win by virtue of being the best player on the best team. Only he wouldn’t. That would go to Boston’s Jayson Tatum, the best player on a team that boat raced the rest of the league. Tatum will finish no higher than fifth, though, behind the Big Three and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The old MVP mold has been smashed. We’ve gotten smarter about basketball.

Aside from wins and losses, one more factor related to team context: How did the presumed top-three MVP candidates impact their team in net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) when they were on the court vs. off the court? This is all per stats.nba.com.

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Nuggets with Jokic: +11.8 on court, -8.6 off court

Thunder with Gilgeous-Alexander: +11.3 on court, -0.1 off court

Mavericks with Doncic: +5.8 on court, -4.3 off court

The Nuggets were 20.4 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor than they were when he was off the floor. Using the same on/off calculations, the Thunder was +11.2 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor as opposed to off, and the Mavericks were a +10.1 with Doncic.

The Nuggets were Wizards-level bad without Jokic. The Mavericks were Nets’ish and Jazz’ish without Doncic. The Thunder was about league average without SGA.

It points to a better supporting cast in OKC compared to that of Denver’s and Dallas’.

By pure on/off value, Jokic is the runaway winner over SGA and Doncic.

How do the three compare by advanced stats?

In estimated plus/minus, a favorite stat among NBA nerds, Gilgeous-Alexander comes out on top, second in the NBA behind Joel Embiid, who didn’t meet the 65-game threshold.

EPM: Gilgeous-Alexander +8.8, Doncic +7.9, Jokic +7.0

Win shares (an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player): Jokic 17.0, Gilgeous-Alexander 14.6, Doncic 12.0 … Jokic and SGA rank first and second in the NBA. Doncic ranks fifth.

VORP (Value over replacement player): Jokic 10.6, Doncic, 8.0, Gilgeous-Alexander 7.1 … Jokic and Doncic rank first and second overall. SGA is fourth behind Giannis.

PER (player efficiency rating): Jokic 31.0, Gilgeous-Alexander 29.3, Doncic 28.1 … Jokic leads the league. Antetokounmpo is second. SGA and Doncic are third and fourth.

Of course that’s just a small snapshot of several advanced stats, but Jokic ranks first in three of the four categories.

Now for some numbers we can all understand.

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Total minutes: Jokic 2,737, Doncic 2,624, SGA 2,553 … They rank ninth, 19th and 28th respectively. Jokic played 184 more minutes than SGA — the equivalent of 15 quarters. I like going with minutes played over games played. SGA played in five more games than Doncic, but Doncic actually played more minutes.

Points per game: Doncic 33.9, SGA 30.1, Jokic 26.4 … Ranking first, third and 10th in the league.

Field-goal percentage: Jokic 58.3%, SGA 53.5%, Doncic 48.7% … Of course Jokic, as a center, is going to be most efficient. He was actually five percentage points down from the 63.2% he shot last year. Among qualifying guards, SGA had the second-best field goal percentage behind (wait for it) Pacers guard T.J. McConnell. SGA’s role was a tad larger than McConnell’s. Doncic isn’t as efficient as SGA or Jokic, but he also takes the most shots at 23.6 per game. SGA and Jokic were both sub-20 shots per game guys.

3-point percentage: Doncic 38.2% on 10.6 per game, Jokic 35.9% on 2.9 per game, SGA 35.3% on 3.6 per game … Doncic had a career 3-point season, both in attempts and accuracy. Big point in his favor.

Free-throw percentage: SGA 87.4% on 8.7 per game, Jokic 81.7% on 5.5 per game, Doncic 78.6% on 8.7 per game … SGA’s 567 made free throws led the league by a 45 free-throw margin. DeMar DeRozan was second.

Effective field-goal percentage (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more than 2-pointers): Jokic 61.2%, Doncic 57.3%, SGA 56.7% … Ranking 11th, 43rd and 56th respectively.

Rebounds per game: Jokic 12.4, Doncic 9.2, SGA 5.5 … Jokic and Doncic led their teams in rebounding. SGA was third on the Thunder behind Chet Holmgren and Josh Giddey.

Assists per game: Doncic 9.8, Jokic 9.0, SGA 6.2 … Gilgeous-Alexander averaged a career high in assists, but Doncic and Jokic are all-time passers.

Steals per game: SGA 2.0, Doncic 1.4, Jokic 1.4 … SGA’s 150 steals tied fellow Kentucky guard De’Aaron Fox for the league lead. Surprisingly enough, Jokic and Doncic ranked eighth and 15th in total steals.

Blocks per game: SGA 0.9, Jokic 0.9, Doncic 0.5 … SGA ranks high among guards in blocks. Jokic ranks low among centers in blocks.

Points + rebounds + assists + blocks + steals per game: Doncic 54.8, Jokic 50.1, SGA 44.7 … A fun but not particularly insightful look at their raw box score stats.

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Jokic is the best player in the world, but that’s not what this award is for. It’s about single-season value. And Jokic’s on/off splits with the Nuggets point to him being the most valuable to his team.

But there’s a human element, too. I’m inherently biased toward SGA having watched just about every minute he’s played in a Thunder uniform. The impact he’s had on the Thunder is immeasurable.

He’s been the ideal superstar — magnificent on the court without a sniff of controversy off of it.

And the Thunder is the No. 1 seed! That counts for something.

Jokic is my MVP, and he’ll win the award. But Gilgeous-Alexander is closer to first on my fake ballot than he is to third.

So without further ado, my top-five for MVP and the rest of my awards ballot (WHICH DOESN’T COUNT!).

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Most Valuable Player

1. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

3. Luka Doncic, Mavericks

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

5. Jalen Brunson, Knicks

Where would the Knicks be without Brunson? He’s become an icon in New York.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves

2. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

3. Anthony Davis, Lakers

Gobert was the best defender on the best defensive team.

This would be Gobert’s fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, tying him with Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace for the most all time.

Watch out though, because Victor Wembanyama is about to overtake his fellow Frenchman as the NBA’s dominant defender. Wembanyama is already the most feared.

Wembanyanma led the NBA with 3.6 blocks per game — 1.2 more than anyone else. Utah’s Walker Kessler and Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez tied for second with 2.4.

Davis was fourth in blocks per game with 2.1.

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Rookie of the Year

1. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder

3. Brandon Miller, Hornets

Chet Holmgren had a Rookie of the Year-caliber season. He started all 82 games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Holmgren was exactly what the Thunder needed on both ends of the floor. A stretch five offensively, shooting 37% from 3-point range, and an elite rim protector defensively.

Holmgren averaged 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks per game. He played the most minutes of any rookie.

And yet … he was outshined by that guy in San Antonio.

No shame in that.

The Wemby vs. Chet rivalry is real and wonderful.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Naz Reid, Timberwolves

2. Malik Monk, Kings

3. Norman Powell, Clippers

Naz Reid started for the Timberwolves for a month in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, but Reid came off the bench in all but 14 of his 81 games played. Reid averaged career highs in points (13.5), rebounds (5.2) and assists (1.3) per game.

The 6-foot-9 center did his best Towns impression, shooting 41% from 3-point range on five attempts per game.

As the Kings pummeled the Warriors on Tuesday night, it was hard not to notice Malik Monk in street clothes on the end of the bench. Monk (MCL sprain) wasn’t needed in the play-in game, but he’ll be missed in a potential series against the Thunder.

Monk, who finished fifth for this award last season, trailed only Atlanta’s Bogdan Bogdanovic in bench scoring.

Norman Powell shot 43.5% from 3-point range on 5.1 attempts per game off the Clippers’ bench.

Most Improved Player

1. Tyrese Maxey, 76ers

2. Coby White, Bulls

3. Grayson Allen, Suns

Proceed to yell at me for not having the Thunder’s Jalen Williams on my NOT REAL ballot, but I’m firmly in the second-year players shouldn’t be considered for Most Improved camp. We only have one other season in which to compare their improvement.

Anyway, Maxey made the jump from really good to All-Star good, White had not quite an out-of-nowhere-breakout, but close to it, and Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage at 46.1%. Allen went from a nice rotation player to a key starter for the Suns.

Houston’s Alperen Sengun would have made my top-three had he met the 65-game threshold.

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Clutch Player of the Year

1. DeMar DeRozan, Bulls

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

3. Stephen Curry, Warriors

The Bulls played 44 games decided in clutch time (when the score is within five points in the last five minutes of a game). Chicago went 27-17 in those games, thanks mostly to DeMar DeRozan’s heroics.

The Bulls were a plus-94 in DeRozan’s 192 clutch minutes. DeRozan shot 49% overall in clutch time, including 47% from 3-point range. And 88% from the free-throw line.

SGA hit a game-winner in December at Denver. He had another at Madison Square Garden in March.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 112 clutch points ranked seventh in the NBA, and they came on 58% shooting. The Thunder was a plus-68 in clutch time with SGA on the floor.

Curry led the NBA in clutch points with 189 on 50/46/95 shooting splits.

Coach of the Year

1. Mark Daigneault, Thunder

2. Jamahl Mosley, Magic

3. Tom Thibodeau, Knicks

Mark Daigneault’s peers already picked him as Coach of the Year and soon he’ll be crowned with the official award.

In Oklahoma City last week, Bucks coach Doc Rivers said Daigneault is “absolutely” the Coach of the Year. “Easy for me on that one,” Rivers added.

“And there’s been so many great jobs, I never say that,” Rivers said. “I think I said it once for Monty Williams several years ago. I don’t think (Daigneault) gets enough due working with a bunch of young guys and getting all these young guys to buy in on a championship level. I don’t think people understand how hard that is to do.”

When Daigneault was promoted as head coach before the 2020-21 season, some thought he was a bridge hire. The developmental guru who would eventually be replaced by a more established coach once the Thunder was ready to compete.

Seems laughable now, right? Daigneault was the perfect coach for the rebuild, and the Thunder couldn’t be in better hands as it enters its contention window.

Mosley is another young coach who’s worked wonders with a young Magic team. He was my clear second choice.

It’s wide open after that, but I went with Thibodeau. You probably couldn’t find two coaches with more contrasting approaches than Daigneault and Thibodeau, but Thibodeau’s old-school mentality has worked in New York, even as the Knicks battled injuries all season.

All-NBA first team

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Luka Doncic, Mavericks

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

Jalen Brunson, Knicks

It’s positionless, so I simply went with the five guys on my MVP ballot.

Back-to-back All-NBA first team finishes for SGA cements his status as a top-five player in the game.

All-NBA second team

Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

Kevin Durant, Suns

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers

Anthony Davis, Lakers

I feel good about this group. Tatum is the only one who had a first-team case.

All-NBA third team

Stephen Curry, Warriors

Devin Booker, Suns

LeBron James, Lakers

Jaylen Brown, Celtics

Domantas Sabonis, Kings

I know this isn’t a lifetime achievement award, but at 39 LeBron James just had the best 3-point shooting season of his career.

Curry’s numbers were down by his standards, but they were spectacular nonetheless.

It feels like the Celtics should have two All-NBAers.

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All-Defensive first team

Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves

Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Anthony Davis, Lakers

Bam Adebayo, Heat

Herb Jones, Pelicans

Four centers and one wing on my positionless ballot.

All-Defensive second team

Derrick White, Celtics

Jalen Suggs, Magic

Alex Caruso, Bulls

Aaron Gordon, Nuggets

Kawhi Leonard, Clippers

I seriously considered three Thunder players for All-Defensive team spots. The Thunder had the fourth-best defense in the NBA, after all.

But here’s my problem: Despite watching the Thunder’s every game, I’m not smart enough to know which of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren or Lu Dort is most impactful on defense.

SGA’s case is that he leads the league in steals. Every steal equals a possession in which the opponent didn’t score. That’s the whole point of playing defense.

Holmgren was among the league leaders in blocks, giving the Thunder’s defense an entirely new element of rim protection.

And Dort is Dort. He’s one of the premier point-of-attack defenders in the game.

I asked Thunder coach Mark Daigneault about voters maybe having a tough time, like me, differentiating among the three. Daigneault muddied things up even more by throwing Jalen Williams into the mix.

Come on, Mark. You can’t have four guys make it.

“Well they have 10 votes,” he said.

Touché.

“The whole team has done a great job of committing to the invisible stuff that goes into the defensive end of the floor,” Daigneault said. “Hopefully that gets acknowledged, but as I’ve said with all the awards, we don’t need that stuff to validate anything. The guys have done a great job. The validation is team success.”

All-Rookie first team

Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Chet Holmgren, Thunder

Brandon Miller, Hornets

Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat

Brandin Podziemski, Warriors

Brandon Miller is legit. It’s way too early to give up on Scoot Henderson in Portland, but maybe the Hornets knew what they were doing in selecting Miller over Henderson.

Jaquez and Podziemski were great values at the 18th and 19th picks. Both played key roles on play-in teams.

All-Rookie second team

Cason Wallace, Thunder

Keyonte George, Jazz

Dereck Lively II, Mavericks

Amen Thompson, Rockets

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Warriors

Wallace, like Holmgren, played in all 82 games for the Thunder. The 20-year-old guard has such a mature game. He played tough defense and was hyper efficient offensively on low volume. A lot of rookies go out of their way to prove themselves. Wallace shined within the confines of his role.

Amen Thompson and his brother, Ausar (who didn’t make my list), can’t shoot a lick, but they’re incredible defenders and uncanny rebounders. Two of my favorite guys to watch from this class.

George and Lively were locks for me and I went with Jackson-Davis for the increased role he played for the Warriors in the second half of the season.

Apologies to the trio of Blazers rookies — Henderson, Toumani Camara and Duop Reath — who barely missed the cut on this very not real ballot.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Making Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP case in NBA awards ballot