How much do Fresno renters pay? Two market watchers have opposite takes on the trend

Apartment rents in Fresno continued to trend lower in August, with the average monthly rental rate falling by about 2.3% compared to July.

It’s the second straight month of decline after the average rent peaked at an all-time high in June, according to data released this week by ApartmentList.com.

But another analysis says rents in Fresno have risen faster over the past year than any other major city in the country.

ApartmentList reports that both nationwide and among California’s largest cities, rents generally ticked higher in August compared to July, but at a slower pace than previous months. “Rent growth is slowing down for the season, a welcome sign for apartment hunters who have battled rapid price increases throughout the pandemic,” said Igor Popov, chief economist for the San Francisco-based rental listing company.

“Rents in Fresno decreased 2.3% month-over-month in August, compared to a 0.5% increase nationally,” Popov reported. He added that of the 100 largest U.S. cities included in the company’s analysis, month-over-month growth in Fresno ranked 99th.

The median rent for a market-rate apartment in Fresno – the midway point at which half of apartments cost more and half cost less – was estimated at $1,336 in August. In July, the median was $1,367 per month. Rents topped out at $1,399 per month in June, the highest average reported for the city.

A year ago, rents in Fresno were rising faster as a percentage rate than many other U.S. cities, but the year-over-year rate of growth has also slowed. “Year-over-year rent growth in Fresno currently stands at 1.2%, compared to 24.6% at this time last year,” Popov said. That’s 96th out of the 100 largest cities in the company’s data. “Rents in Fresno are up 27.7% since the start of the pandemic in March 2020,” he added.

In March 2020, the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment was estimated at $834 per month. One year ago, the figure was $1,042 per month – an increase of $208. In August 2022, the median reported by ApartmentList was $1,055.

During the same period, the median for a two-bedroom apartment climbed from $1,015 in March 2020 to $1,280 in August 2021, and $1,296 in August 2022.

Leases for individual apartment units, however, can vary widely – not only between different areas of the city, but from one apartment complex to another and even from unit to unit within the same complex. The ApartmentList data and analysis methodology does not include public or subsidized affordable housing for low-income renters.

Still, the analysis generally indicates that rents are more affordable in Fresno than any of California’s other large cities, and by a wide margin. Among the state’s 10 largest cities included in the analysis, rents include:

Los Angeles, population 3,966,936: median rent $1,920 per month, up 8.0% from a year ago. San Diego, population 1,409,573: $2,461 per month, up 14.2% from a year ago. San Jose, population 1,027,690: $2,537 per month, up 11.8% from a year ago. San Francisco, population 874,961: $2,299 per month, up 2.5% from a year ago. Fresno, population 525,010: $1,336 per month, up 1.3% from a year ago. Sacramento, population 500,930: $1,679 per month, up 4.7% from a year ago. Long Beach, population 466,776: $1,756 per month, up 12.5% from a year ago. Oakland, population 425,097: $1,716 per month, up 1.4% from a year ago. Anaheim, population 349,964: $2,331 per month, up 10.9% from a year ago. Santa Ana, population 332,794: $2,187 per month, up 15.3% from a year ago.

“As rents have increased slightly in Fresno, a few large cities nationwide have also seen rents grow modestly,” ApartmentList stated in its August rent report for Fresno. “Fresno is still more affordable than most large cities across the country.”

The median two-bedroom rent of $1,296 in Fresno for August is below the nationwide average of $1,364 per month, and the 1.3% year-over-year increase here is lower than the national rent growth of 10%.

Another set of data

While the ApartmentList city-level data is based on actual leases signed during a month, another analysis by competing apartment-listing company Zumper relies on the median asking price – what landlords are seeking for their rental units – to craft its estimate that rents in Fresno are among the fastest-rising in the country, with a one-year hike of 40% for a one-bedroom unit. The Zumper estimates of asking prices are significantly higher than the median lease figures cited by ApartmentList.

Zumper’s report for August calculates the median asking price for a one-bedroom unit at $1,540 per month, and $1,740 per month for a two-bedroom rental.

“At $1,540, Fresno’s one-bedroom median is 40 percent higher than the same time last year—the biggest increase in the country,” Zumper’s national rent report states. “As cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento lose population, Fresno has seen a gradual but steady population increase.”

The Zumper report indicates that Fresno has attracted people from more-expensive California cities – a pattern that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. The report attributes some of that to Amazon opening a Fresno warehouse in 2019 to bring thousands of e-commerce fulfillment jobs to the area, with additional facilities planned by the online retail company.

“The number of relocations to Fresno has inspired investors to take over existing properties and increase asking prices,” the Zumper report added. “This isn’t strictly good news for Fresno, which is the poorest major city in California.”

“Current residents—a majority of whom are minorities—are facing an affordability crisis and growing inequalities in housing opportunities,” the report said.

The burden of rent costs

At the ApartmentList median overall rent of $1,336 per month, the amount that a household may expect to pay to rent an apartment in Fresno with a one-year lease is about $16,000 plus utilities.

Using the Zumper estimate of $1,710 for a two-bedroom apartment in Fresno, the annual cost would add up to more than $20,500 plus utilities.

In the meantime, the median income for renter households in Fresno was estimated at $34,357, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey. Half of renter households made more than that, and half made less.

The federal Department of Housing & Urban Development considers households that pay 30% or more of their income on rent plus utilities to be “rent-burdened.” According to the Census data, almost 60% of Fresno’s renter households meet that standard.

Renters at the lowest end of the income spectrum, with household income less than $20,000 per year, are also the most rent-burdened: almost 95%, the Census data reveals.

The 2020 Census data reveals that among more than 170,000 occupied housing units – houses, condos or apartments – renter households outnumbered homeowner households, 53.2% to 46.8%.