Mountain West football predictions: Top contenders, sleepers and championship picks
During a tumultuous time in college football, the Mountain West has remained steady in terms of membership. And it’s a conference that figures to be extremely competitive in 2023.
The Mountain West has had a different champion in each of the past four seasons. Could there be a fifth champion in five seasons?
Fresno State, led by star quarterback Jake Haener, won the conference last year, besting Boise State in the title game. Boise State fans are accustomed to winning championships, but it’s been since 2019 that the Broncos have earned the conference crown.
In the two years between Boise’s last title and Fresno State’s 2022 triumph, there were two unexpected champions — San Jose State in 2020 and Utah State in 2021.
Boise State and Fresno State are the two betting favorites entering the 2023 season, but there are a few teams who could potentially follow the paths of San Jose State and Utah State and become a surprise conference champion.
Does Jake Haener’s departure open the door for Boise State?
How will Fresno State fare without Jake Haener at quarterback? Haener threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2021 and then lit up Mountain West defenses when he returned from an early-season injury last fall. The Bulldogs started 1-4 before finishing the season on a nine-game winning streak and winning the conference sparked by Haener’s return to the lineup.
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Entering 2023, the Bulldogs will turn to UCF transfer Mikey Keene or Logan Fife at quarterback, but they also have to replace top running back Jordan Mims and four of their top five receivers. FSU also lost a few top players on defense, including defensive end David Perales and safety Evan Williams.
Will that open the door for Boise State? The Broncos are entering their third season under Andy Avalos and his tenure has been fairly tumultuous thus far. Boise finished 7-5 in 2021, its worst record since 1998, and then endured an ugly 2-2 start last year.
Boise State’s fortunes changed when Avalos made changes to the offense, including handing the reins of the offense to Taylen Green. Green was inconsistent as a passer, but his running ability added a much-needed dimension to the Broncos' attack.
Green is back as the starter in 2023 with the running back duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, though there is some turnover up front and top receiver Latrell Caples suffered a season-ending injury in preseason camp. There are some holes to fill on defense, too, but the Broncos may have the most talented roster in the conference.
Another potential contender is Air Force. The Falcons have registered double-digit victories in the last three full seasons (they went 3-3 in 2020) and are extremely experienced on the offensive line and on defense. However, Air Force has to replace three-year starting QB Haaziq Daniels and workhorse running back Brad Roberts, who rushed for 1,728 yards and 17 TDs last fall.
Can San Diego State bounce back after down season?
San Diego State has been a consistent Mountain West contender over the past decade but is coming off a very underwhelming year.
The Aztecs, who finished 7-6, had a brutal 2-3 start and had to move starting safety Jalen Mayden over to quarterback to try to spark a sputtering offense. Mayden did an admirable job and got the Aztecs to a bowl game, though most of SDSU’s victories in the second half of the season came vs. the bottom teams in the conference.
Mayden remains in place as the starter entering 2023, and new coordinator Ryan Lindley (promoted from QBs coach) apparently plans to call more passes than SDSU teams of the past. Leaning on the running game and playing strong defense has been a successful formula for the Aztecs, so it could be a risky philosophical adjustment. Or it could propel SDSU back to the top of the Mountain West.
Another team to keep an eye on is San Jose State entering Year 7 under Brent Brennan.
The Spartans are 12-12 overall and 8-8 in MWC play since winning the conference in 2020, but they bring back QB Chevan Cordeiro, all five offensive line starters and RB Kairee Robinson. However, SJSU lost receivers Elijah Cooks (NFL) and Isaiah Hamilton (Washington State), as well as star defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall, both of whom won MWC Defensive Player of the Year.
The Spartans should be a bowl team, but likely fall into the middle tier in the conference.
Can there be a surprise MWC champion like Utah State in 2021?
Utah State came out of nowhere to win the conference in its first season under Blake Anderson but regression hit the Aggies hard last fall as they fell from 11 to six wins amid a rash of quarterback injuries. Cooper Legas is back at QB, but USU was hit very hard by the transfer portal and graduation. USU may take another step back before it begins to ascend toward the top of the conference again.
Wyoming should have one of the conference’s top defenses but the team’s incredibly conservative offense could hold it back yet again, especially with offseason injuries to top two running backs Harrison Waylee and Dawaiian McNeely. The team’s other best RB, the speedy D.Q. James, is coming back from a torn ACL.
Colorado State is very intriguing this year. CSU hired Jay Norvell away from Nevada and experienced a tough 3-9 rebuilding year. But if the offensive line improves, the Rams could show major improvement in 2023 with QB Clay Millen and WR Tory Horton back on offense and eight starters back on defense.
Nevada, which totally revamped its roster with Power Five transfers, should also take a step forward after going 2-10 last fall. Hawaii could also improve in Year 2 under Timmy Chang as it continues to rebuild from the wreckage left behind by Todd Graham.
Elsewhere, UNLV hired ex-Missouri head coach Barry Odom and should at least be competitive with Doug Brumfield back at quarterback. New Mexico, on the other hand, looks like the worst team in the league. UNM is 7-24 (3-20 MWC) in three seasons under Danny Gonzales and he may not make it past Year 4.
Which Mountain West team is most overrated?
Sam Cooper: San Diego State. With UCLA and Oregon State in the non-con and Boise State and Air Force as their first two conference games, the Aztecs could start the season 2-4 or even 1-5 if they lose to Ohio in Week 0 (SDSU is only a 3.5-point favorite). The back half of the schedule is much more manageable, but there are position groups to be worried about on both sides of the ball. This feels like a 6-6 team to me.
Nick Bromberg: Utah State. The Aggies lost a lot on offense and must figure out their quarterback situation. Coach Blake Anderson will also transition into becoming the primary play caller after offensive coordinator Anthony Tucker went to Indiana. Anderson also lost defensive coordinator Ephraim Banda to the NFL. I think this team finishes in the bottom half of the Mountain West and could lose at home to James Madison.
Which team is a sleeper to contend for the Mountain West title?
Sam: Colorado State (+1600). The Rams allowed 59 sacks last year, so improvement up front will go a long way. Along with a revamped line, CSU has a promising young QB in Clay Millen and solid talent around him at the skill positions. The defense battled all of last season and that unit returns eight starters, including Mohamed Kamara (17 TFL, 8.5 sacks). I’m a believer in Jay Norvell and the Rams could surprise.
Nick: San Jose State (+1600). The Spartans could start the season 1-3 with games against USC, Oregon State and Toledo. But even if they do, don’t sleep on them as contenders. The offense should be solid with QB Chevan Cordeiro’s return and the defense should be serviceable. Notably, SJSU gets Air Force, Fresno State and San Diego State at home.
What is your favorite Mountain West win total bet?
Sam: Fresno State under 8.5 wins. The Bulldogs will get to a bowl game, but there is just so much lost production on offense that I can’t find nine wins on this schedule. There are trips to Purdue and Arizona State in the non-con and some of Fresno’s toughest conference games are on the road. This feels like a 7-5 rebuilding year.
Nick: New Mexico under 3.5 wins. The Lobos have a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball and a new offensive system in place after a 2-10 season. I’m not sure I see much improvement. UNM needs wins over Tennessee Tech, New Mexico State and UMass, along with a win over a Mountain West opponent to hit the over. I’m not confident in that.
Who is your pick to win the Mountain West title?
Sam: Air Force (+400). Despite the losses at quarterback and running back, I’m confident that the drop-off at those positions won’t be too big based on the long-term success of Troy Calhoun and this option system. AFA, which is loaded in the trenches this year, has had so many winning seasons under Calhoun but still hasn’t won the conference. The schedule sets up pretty well for that drought to end.
Nick: Boise State (+200). I’m intrigued by Fresno State but the Broncos bring back more on offense than the Bulldogs and QB Taylen Green improved as the season went on in 2022. The defense should reload thanks to the transfer portal and be good enough to complement what should be the best offense in the conference.
Mountain West championship odds
Boise State: +200
Fresno State: +350
Air Force: +400
San Diego State: +750
Wyoming: +1200
Colorado State: +1600
San Jose State: +1600
UNLV: +1600
Utah State: +2500
Nevada: +5000
Hawaii: +12500
New Mexico: +15000
