More rain, tropical impacts to target southeastern US
A late-summer change in the weather pattern across the southeastern United States has replaced worsening drought with flooding rains and tropical impacts in recent weeks.
Back in mid-July, all of North Carolina and South Carolina were abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In fact, over 20 percent of North Carolina and 35 percent of South Carolina were in severe or extreme drought at the time.
With the help of tropical moisture, especially Debby, the pattern has completely flipped. More than 6 inches of rain have fallen across much of North and South Carolina through the first third of August. The most extreme locations have had over a foot of rain, likely wiping out any of the lingering drought in early August.
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The above image shows estimated accumulated rainfall across the eastern U.S. from August 5-11, 2024, during which time Debby impacted the region. |
Much of the Southeast's rainfall totals so far in August have come from Debby, given the storm's landfall as a hurricane in Florida, followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina three days later.
In the wake of Debby, more rain has fallen across parts of the region, particularly across the Carolinas. A stalled front in North and South Carolina has been responsible for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms since the weekend.
"Moderate to major river flooding in the lowlands of the Carolinas and Georgia will continue this week with water levels not expected to crest until next week in some locations as this slow-moving natural disaster continues," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
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"Any downpours may not greatly add to high levels on the major rivers, but it can delay the rate waters recede," Sosnowski said, "Meanwhile, the downpours will continue the risk of localized flash flooding due to the saturated state of the ground."
As the middle of the week approaches, an area of high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley, acting like a shield from any significant wet weather for those along the Southeast coast.
Despite the drier weather on the way by the end of the week, the same locations impacted by Debby's moisture could still have impacts from the next tropical feature in the Atlantic, Ernesto.
"Based on the current pattern across the eastern U.S. and the Atlantic, Ernesto is not expected to have direct impacts on the eastern United States," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
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One reason is the projection of the winds high up in the atmosphere, often referred to by meteorologists as steering winds. These winds combined with a dominant high pressure in the southern United States are likely to protect the Southeast from Hurricane Ernesto.
"Even with the track of Ernesto well out to sea, residents of the East should not let their guard down, especially those who plan to go to the beaches this week," DaSilva explained.
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The tropical storm is expected to strengthen north of the Caribbean islands, increasing how far the higher waves can travel. In addition to the islands of the Bahamas, much of Florida's Atlantic coast up through the Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect dangerous waves later in the week.
While a change in the pattern could bring drier conditions to the Southeast coast by Thursday, strong rip currents and rough surf could still impact those heading to the beaches into Saturday, thanks to a strengthening Ernesto north of the Caribbean Islands.
Rough surf and building seas will spread northward along the Atlantic coast this weekend, with increasingly dangerous rip currents in the mid-Atlantic and New England.
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"Beachgoers should follow precautions set forth by local governments and remember to enter the water in locations where a lifeguard is present," DaSilva warned.
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