When is monsoon season? El Pasoans should expect below-average rainfall in 2024

Natassia Paloma

El Paso is gearing up for a hot and dry monsoon season this year, but there’s still potential for some rain, according to the National Weather Service.

Monsoon is when the region typically sees its majority of rainfall, running from June 15 to Sept. 30.

El Paso averages about 9 inches of rain annually, and up to 6 inches happens in monsoon, according to Anthony Brown, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

This year, rain totals could be below average because of several different factors. The Atlantic Ocean is extremely warm, impacting moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, which helps steer moisture to El Paso, Brown said.

Another issue is drought.

Summer monsoon pattern.
Summer monsoon pattern.

“We have the worst drought in North America,” Brown said. “So that puts high pressure over us, and with high pressure, it’s hard to get those thunderstorms. When you lose out on any of those ingredients, you tend to have a weaker monsoon.”

El Paso is expected to see a dry monsoon comparable to 2020, Brown said. The monsoon brought 2.11” of rain that year, ranking it as one of the top 10 driest monsoon seasons in El Paso.

What is monsoon?

Monsoon refers to the seasonal reversal in atmospheric low-level circulations, mainly the surface winds and associated precipitation. This results in a pattern of wet summers and dry winters, according to the National Weather Service.

The playground at Memorial Park in Central El Paso was flooded this weekend from recent monsoon rains.
The playground at Memorial Park in Central El Paso was flooded this weekend from recent monsoon rains.

Is heavy rain still possible in a dry and hot monsoon season?

El Pasoans may remember Downtown streets submerged by rainfall during flash-flooding at the tail end of the monsoon in 2023, leading to shop closures and damage. These unpredictable, pop-up storms are the nature of monsoon, Brown said.

“I don’t think we’re going to have a monsoon that’s completely shut down,” Brown said. “I think we will have enough moisture to allow these pop-up storms. Generally, they don’t move very much, so if you are under the storms, you could get a lot of rain.”

Brown pointed out that in 2020, half of the rain that year — almost an inch — came from one single rain event.

Rain clouds loom over El Paso on Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022. Rain fell across the Borderland for much of the day, bringing cool relief.
Rain clouds loom over El Paso on Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022. Rain fell across the Borderland for much of the day, bringing cool relief.

What are some hazards associated with the monsoon season?

Along with pop-up storms producing heavy rain, lightning and thunderstorms are common during monsoon season. People should always head indoors when hearing thunderstorms, Brown said.

Haboobs, or dust storms, are also a common byproduct of thunderstorms, Brown said. The dust and sand can reduce visibility, especially while driving.

How to prepare for monsoon

While a dry and warm monsoon is expected, Brown said those living in low-lying areas prone to flooding should still have sandbags on hand. Also, because the monsoon may cause flash flooding, water can accumulate on roads quickly.

“Don’t drive into flooded waters,” Brown said. “That’s the biggest mistake people tend to make. You can’t always estimate how deep the water is.”

Driest Monsoon seasons in El Paso of all time:

  • 1994: 0.23”

  • 1891: 0.82”

  • 1934: 0.96”

  • 1892: 1.33”

  • 1945: 1.46”

  • 1953: 1.66”

  • 2003: 1.78

  • 1969: 1.85”

  • 2020: 2.11”

  • 1963: 2.19”

This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: El Paso monsoon season forecast: Below-average rainfall expected

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