'Monday Night Football': Will Eagles put it all together after a suboptimal first 2 weeks?

Week 3 concludes with another double dose of "Monday Night Football" before the schedule reverts back to its single-game cadence next week.

For many NFL teams, the third week of the season is about staying power. There was plenty of conversation about which teams’ hot starts are predictive of things to come, and which slow starters could be headed for a season of disappointment. The Miami Dolphins' 70-20 annihilation of the Denver Broncos illustrated both extremes perfectly. Then there was the Washington Commanders’ 2-0 start that looked more like a mirage after a 37-3 beatdown by the Buffalo Bills. Fourteen games are in the books for Week 3, and only four unbeaten teams remain. Two face each other Monday when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers have been one of the league’s early surprises. Tampa Bay’s odds to win the NFC South were as high as +900 over the summer before their wins over Minnesota and Chicago compressed them to a respectable +400. Tampa Bay enters Monday's game as a 4.5-point home underdog against the defending NFC champions. If the Buccaneers want to prove they are for real, a win over the Eagles on a national stage is the perfect way to make a statement.

It’s not going to be easy. Philadelphia is a significant step up in competition. Tampa Bay’s two wins have come against teams with a combined 0-6 record. When analyzing this matchup, it’s going to come down to the Buccaneers’ offensive line, and their ability to keep Baker Mayfield clean. Here’s why I am skeptical they will have success.

Expect a dominant performance from the Eagles' defense

Key players return to action for an Eagles defense that hasn’t looked the same as the unit that chased opposing quarterbacks down for 70 sacks in 2022.

Starting cornerback James Bradberry and safety Reed Blankenship will bolster a depleted secondary that allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 364 yards and four touchdowns last Thursday night. Bradberry’s return is especially pivotal since he can spend some time in the slot to help minimize the impact of losing Avonte Maddox to a season-ending injury. Having solid coverage on the back end to deal with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is crucial for the Eagles' defense, as it will allow time for their formidable defensive line to go to work against one of Tampa Bay’s biggest weaknesses: the interior offensive line.

Every season there are stories about quarterbacks buying their offensive linemen nice things. They know they are only as good as their protection. The Buccaneers have done a solid job keeping Mayfield clean so far, but Philadelphia has the interior pass rushers to wreck the pocket and disrupt the timing of the Bucs' offense. Starting center Robert Hainsey ranks 27th of 33 centers, while Cody Mauch grades out 54th of 68 guards. Mayfield is going to have to get rid of the ball awfully quick to sustain any kind of success.

What makes matters worse is that Philly’s defense will be healthy and well-rested coming off a “mini-bye” with 10 days rest since their Thursday night win. Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis and Josh Sweat were all full participants in Friday’s practice, paving the way for the Eagles defensive front to be at full strength.

Is Baker Mayfield really back?

This will be the best defense Tampa Bay has seen so far. Its previous opponents, Minnesota and Chicago, have the 30th and 31st lowest pass rush grade per Pro Football Focus. The two defenses also rank 25th and 30th in EPA per play allowed. You can only play the defenses on the schedule, but the data bears out that the Bucs' offensive success could be a little bit of smoke and mirrors. It’s also telling that both of those struggling defenses had their best days against Tampa Bay.

Vikings — Points allowed

vs. Tampa Bay 20

vs. Philadelphia 34

vs. L.A Chargers 28

Bears - Points allowed

vs. Tampa Bay 27

vs. Green Bay 38

vs. Kansas City 41

Betting recommendations to exploit this matchup

Baker Mayfield under 228 yards (-115) - The key to beating Mayfield throughout his career has been directly tied to putting him under duress. The Eagles have the pass rushers to make Mayfield uncomfortable. He fell way short of this number when he threw for 173 yards against the Vikings. With Philadelphia healthier in the secondary, it's a solid bet Carter and company turn the clock back on Baker.

Jalen Carter over .75 sacks (+190) - How sack props are structured varies with different sportsbooks, but targeting Carter to put Mayfield on his back is a solid bet at plus money. Carter has been a menace his first two games as a pro. He already has one sack, and his 11 pressures were fifth most in the league after Week 2.

Under 45 -110 — The Eagles are 2-0 to the over this year mainly because the defense hasn’t been able to hold up its end of the bargain. I don’t expect that to be the case Monday. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles' passing game hasn’t hit its stride. It has looked clunky and surprisingly inefficient through two weeks (29th in dropback success rate). Teams are giving new looks to Jalen Hurts and new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson by dropping more defenders in coverage to put a cap on the explosive plays. I’m prepared for Philadelphia to leverage its offensive line with the running game, while Johnson and Hurts continue to make minor adjustments to solve the puzzle defenses are presenting them. These two teams are 20th and 24th in pace this season, so a 23-17 Eagles win wouldn’t surprise me.