MLB betting: The most likely World Series matchups, according to the betting odds

Pete Truszkowski

With the MLB all-star break now under a week away, we've passed the halfway mark of the season. While there are still 70-plus games for each team to play, at this point we've pretty much figured out which teams are legitimate contenders and which teams aren't.

While the World Series is still three-plus months away, it's never too early to check out the betting market. Let's take a look at which potential World Series matchups are most likely according to the oddsmakers at BetMGM.

Yankees vs. Dodgers is most likely matchup

The New York Yankees are the current favorites to win the World Series at +375. They're +150 favorites to win the AL pennant. While the Yankees have been more pedestrian the last few weeks, they are still off to a sizzling 61-25 start, which is the best record in baseball by a 4.5-game margin. The Yankees lead baseball in home runs, wOBA and WRC+ on the offensive side. They have the third-best ERA in baseball, with their starting rotation ranking third and their bullpen ranking second.

In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers have +200 odds to win the pennant, making them the betting favorites. They have the second-best odds to win the World Series at +450. The Dodgers have the best ERA in baseball, carried by their starting rotation which has the best ERA in the league by a significant margin. Offensively, the Dodgers rank second in runs scored and wOBA while ranking third in WRC+. Los Angeles is tied for the second-best record in MLB.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 17: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning at Dodger Stadium on June 17, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Will Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers meet the MLB's best team in the World Series? (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) (Ronald Martinez via Getty Images)

It's no surprise that these two teams are the favorites to meet in the Fall Classic. Currently, a Dodgers-Yankees World Series matchup has +600 odds at BetMGM. The Dodgers entered the year as favorites to win it all, and they've done nothing to sour that outlook. However, the Yankees have had a tremendous start. These are two of the more prominent teams in the league and you know they'll make moves to improve their roster at the trade deadline. Nobody would be shocked to see this World Series matchup and it's hard to disagree with the idea that it's the likeliest one.

What about a Subway Series?

In 2000, the Yankees defeated the New York Mets in the Subway Series. Baseball hasn't seen a matchup between the two New York teams in the World Series since. Will that change this year?

A Yankees-Mets World Series matchup is currently tied for the second most likely of any potential matchups, according to the betting odds. If you're feeling a Subway Series, you can get +900 odds at BetMGM.

We've already discussed how dominant the Yankees have been to begin the year, but the Mets aren't doing too shabby themselves. They have the fourth-best record in baseball and currently have the fourth-best odds to win the World Series at +400. The Mets have the second-best odds to win the NL pennant at +325.

Despite ranking just 19th in home runs, the Mets rank fifth in total runs scored. This is powered by the fifth-best batting average and third-best on-base percentage in baseball. The Mets also rank fifth in weighted runs created. The Mets offense is a bit of a throwback in that while Pete Alonso is a home run masher, their offense is primarily built around pesky hitters. The likes of Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha all hit for good averages and get on base at a high clip.

The Mets rank eighth in team ERA, but it's important to note that Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom have missed large chunks of the season (or in deGrom's case, the entire season). DeGrom is making rehab starts in the minors and is expected to return shortly after the all-star break. Scherzer has made two starts since returning from injury, allowing just five hits and one run over 13 innings while striking out 20.

Other potential matchups

Here's the rest of the top 10 most likely World Series matchups, according to BetMGM:

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees (+600)

  2. New York Mets vs. New York Yankees (+900)

  3. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros (+900)

  4. New York Mets vs. Houston Astros (12-to-1)

  5. Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees (12-to-1)

  6. Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros (18-to-1)

  7. San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees (18-to-1)

  8. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (18-to-1)

  9. Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Yankees (22-to-1)

  10. San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros (25-to-1)

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com

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