Missouri Senate could be shifting further right this election. What policies could pass?

With a new crop of hard-right Republicans expected to join the Missouri Senate, some Democrats are worried that the upper chamber’s priorities will swing more to the right in the next legislative session.

Conservative wish list items such as bans on transgender student athletes and legislation that targets school curriculum have failed to pass in previous years amid infighting among Republicans. But Senate Democrats say those policies could have enough momentum in the coming years with more hard-right members joining the upper chamber.

“I’m at a loss, frankly, of what to do — I wish Missourians would come down and hear some of the things that are said on the Senate floor,” said state Sen. Greg Razer, a Kansas City Democrat. “I’m afraid we haven’t hit rock bottom in Missouri yet. Things are going to get worse before they get better.”

Two hard-right members of the Missouri House — state Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, an Arnold Republican, and state Rep. Nick Schroer, an O’Fallon Republican — are expected to win open seats in the Senate on Nov. 8.

Republican political newcomer Jill Carter, who was endorsed by 100 PAC, a political action committee aligned with a group of hard-right senators, defeated incumbent state Sen. Bill White of Joplin in the Republican primary and is running unopposed.

Schroer, who earlier this year filed a bill that would have allowed parents to oversee their children’s curriculum and banned the teaching of “Critical Race Theory,” did not return a call for comment. Carter, who touts the “ability of parents to oversee and participate in the education of their children” on her website, also did not respond for comment.

Some of the fear among Democrats is that the Senate GOP’s focus on conservative social issues will shift legislative priorities away from statewide problems that affect Missourians such as curtailing gun violence, addressing a critical shortage of staff and resources that plagues the state’s child welfare system and providing more oversight of religious schools accused of facilitating abuse.

“I think you can look at the new members who are joining us from the House and you can look at the kinds of bills that they filed — things like throwing women in jail for crossing state lines to get an abortion or some of the books censorship and book bans that we’ve seen, they want to eliminate the corporate tax — I’ll just say I don’t like the look of this,” said state Sen. Lauren Arthur, a Kansas City Democrat.

Coleman made national headlines this year when she filed a bill that would have made it illegal to perform an abortion on a Missouri resident out of state. However, the bill would have been enforced through lawsuits by private citizens against anyone who helps a women travel for an abortion.

Some Republican senators acknowledge that hard-right positions such as transgender bans and school curriculum will be at the forefront of the next session and say they plan to immediately file related legislation.

State Sen. Mike Moon, an Ash Grove Republican, said in a phone interview with The Star, that he plans to file a bill next session that bans gender transition therapy for minors and another that would bar transgender athletes from women’s sports.

He also said he spoke with other senators who plan to file legislation that targets “Critical Race Theory,” a college-level academic concept that examines the role of institutions in perpetuating racism. The academic theory is not widely taught in Missouri’s K-12 schools, but the phrase has been adopted by conservatives as a shorthand for lessons that delve into systemic racism’s role in U.S. history or politics.

“I think that based on some of the primaries that have been won, I believe there are a number [of senators] that probably will kind of gravitate toward the ideologies that I endear,” Moon said.

However, other more moderate Republicans say there may be less of a focus on those polarizing issues next year after the Nov. 8 election. They say senators will have less of an incentive to appeal to conservative voters in an off-election session.

“When you go into an off-year, I’m not sure how much of the conversation they’re going to dominate,” said Senate President Pro-tem Dave Schatz, a Sullivan Republican whose term ends this year. “Those are red meat, campaign, election type stuff. I think there will be more common sense, day to day, kitchen table issues.”

Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden, a Columbia Republican who is the odds-on favorite to take over Schatz’s role, did not return a call for comment. But, in an August interview on This Week in Missouri Politics, he indicated that hard-right social issues would be priorities next session.

“We had some stuff outlying at the end of last year that we wanted to get done that we couldn’t,” Rowden said in the interview. “We’re going to deal with curriculum accountability and CRT. We’re going to deal with the transgender issue.”

Coleman, an ardent anti-abortion advocate, is expected to prevail in November against Democratic opponent Benjamin Hagin. In the House, she has proposed strict conservative legislation related to abortion.

Coleman, however, moderated her conservative talking points in a Thursday interview with The Star. She said the Senate’s main priorities will be legalizing sports betting, continuing tax cuts and the elimination of sales tax on feminine hygiene products, commonly referred to as the “pink tax.”

She said she hasn’t had any formal discussions with other senators about whether conservative social issues like transgender sports bans and banning “Critical Race Theory” would be priorities.

“I think there is concern about protecting women’s sports, so I think that that could continue to be an issue,” she said. “I don’t consider those things to be socially conservative. I think those are issues that Missourians are talking about when they’re visiting with people.”

While many legislators said it’s hard to predict what will happen next session, they said to expect to see more of a focus on conservative social issues.

“The right-wing government is already here — the Republican senators already hold very extreme positions,” said Arthur, the Kansas City Democrat.

“I find myself fighting more and more ridiculous arguments and invented problems and things that don’t really even affect people’s everyday lives. So will it be further to the right? Probably, but it’s hard to know what the culture war of the year will be in 2023.”