Mississippi State basketball vs. Ole Miss: Score prediction, scouting report for rematch
STARKVILLE — Mississippi State basketball coach Chris Jans often uses metrics when examining his team’s play. For example, he’ll often cite turnover rates rather than simply pointing to the number of times the Bulldogs gave the ball away in a contest.
However, advanced analytics aren’t needed when reexamining Mississippi State’s loss at Ole Miss on Jan. 30.
The Bulldogs allowed the Rebels to score 86 points. It’s as simple as that to Jans. Playing on the road, 82 points should have been enough for MSU (17-8, 6-6 SEC) to pick up a rivalry win.
“We just didn’t defend well enough,” Jans said Monday. “… We just had some breakdowns and have got to try to clean them up.”
The numbers suggest MSU should find improved play on that end of the floor Wednesday (8 p.m., ESPN2) when Ole Miss (19-6, 6-6) comes to Humphrey Coliseum.
Mississippi State ranks No. 13 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Bulldogs rank in the top 30 in effective field goal percentage allowed and fourth in 3-point percentage allowed.
Even with forward D.J. Jeffries – who Jans considers the team’s top perimeter defender – sidelined with an injury, Mississippi State has held teams to an average of 60 points per game during its three game winning streak.
Can Ole Miss stay hot from range?
The 3-point line was key for Ole Miss in picking up a victory at home against MSU. The Rebels made 12 of their 30 attempts (40%), including a stretch of four straight late in the first half to regain momentum going into halftime.
Under first-year coach Chris Beard, Ole Miss ranks 10th nationally shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc. Guard Jaylen Murray paces the Rebels at 41.4% while Matthew Murrell shoots 40.9%. Against State, they combined for 41 points on 7-18 shooting from 3-point range.
However, they still needed a third threat to help fend off the Bulldogs. TJ Caldwell provided that in the first meeting with 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting, including 4-5 from 3-point range.
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Score prediction
Stefan Krajisnik, Mississippi State beat writer: Mississippi State 77, Ole Miss 65. MSU and Ole Miss are not too different from the rest of the SEC. Both are good at home and shaky on the road. The Bulldogs gave themselves a chance to win in Oxford. In front of a home crowd, Mississippi State should have no problem improving its winning streak to four.
David Eckert, Ole Miss beat writer: Mississippi State 71, Ole Miss 65. The Rebels ended their three-game losing skid by beating Mizzou, but they didn’t play particularly well in doing so. The Bulldogs’ scoring limitations and the nature of rivalry games would make it surprising to see the Rebels blown out, but a road win seems unlikely, too.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State basketball vs. Ole Miss: Prediction, scouting report
