Mike McDaniel, Dolphins seize control of AFC East, set up ‘for a journey,' not 1 playoff game
MIAMI GARDENS — The Bills just lost a game because they had trouble counting past 11.
The last time the Jets scored a touchdown, Halloween candy hadn’t been passed out.
And by mentioning the Patriots, we already have given them more attention than they deserve.
It would appear that leaves only one other team in the AFC East. It’s a team with a 1 1/2-game lead in the division. But if it’s a chore to get the Dolphins to even acknowledge this basic fact (and it absolutely is tough), there’s no point in telling them that instead of a three-horse race, this division chase looks more like defensive backs getting toasted by Tyreek Hill.
Coming off their bye week, the Dolphins (6-3) will face the visiting Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) to start a five-week stretch against teams with a combined winning percentage of .426. Not one currently has a winning record.
The New York Times computer gives the Dolphins an 88 percent chance of winning the East and with it, a guarantee of at least one home game in the postseason. There are Dolphins fans in high school who consider playoff games at Hard Rock Stadium a foreign concept. The last time Miami hosted a playoff game was on Jan. 4, 2009.
Even in the one-week-at-a-time world that is the NFL, coach Mike McDaniel didn’t run from a question this week on the importance of winning the East.
“The goal is to win the division,” he said. “That is the only way you ensure that you’re, for one, in the playoffs, you have a home game in the playoffs and you set yourself up for a journey, not a game. You play these teams twice a year, so there’s no hiding. I put a huge emphasis on that. I don’t think that’s unique. I think a lot of people do.”
Some do it better than others. The Dolphins once owned the East for four straight years in the 1970s and five straight in the 1980s. Since then? Just four division titles in 36 years.
If ever the Dolphins were primed to seize control of the East, this is it. Buffalo is in such disarray that it gave away a game against Denver with a silly special teams penalty. Someone’s head had to roll, and it turned out that Ken Dorsey, the offensive coordinator, was odd man out.
The Jets (4-5) went two straight games without a touchdown and are in players-only-meeting mode.
The Patriots are 2-8.
“It’s important for all of us to win our division,” Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said. “In order for us to win our division, we have to start with this upcoming game. We can’t worry about what happened with anybody else in our division. We have to look forward and our next opponent is the Raiders.”
That would be a team on a two-game winning streak and dangerous, featuring Josh Jacobs, the third-leading rusher in the NFL, and edge rusher Maxx Crosby, a strong contender for defensive player of the year. But it’s also a team that three weeks ago fired its head coach, so we’ll see how far the resurgence under Antonio Pierce lasts.
Dolphins on dominant 16-2 roll at Hard Rock
The importance of home-field advantage in the playoffs cannot be overstated for the Dolphins, and not just to avoid blizzard-like conditions up north. Fairly quietly, this era of Dolphins football at Hard Rock has been brutal for visiting teams. The Dolphins are 16-2 in their past 18 home games. A victory Sunday would mark their best home stretch since going 23-2 in the Orange Bowl in 1983-86.
Since the Dolphins’ current home domination began in November 2021, their .889 winning percentage is matched only by Kansas City for best in the league.
Philadelphia and Dallas are the only other teams unbeaten at home this season.
Why are the Dolphins so tough in Miami Gardens?
“The obvious is the sun kind of cooking them a little bit,” linebacker Bradley Chubb said. “That wears on you a little bit as the game goes on. But just the physical brand that we bring to the field. We don’t want to lose in front of our home fans. We don’t want to disappoint the people who gather up money each week to come see us play. We take pride in that. It means a lot to us.”
It’s worth noting that because of Miami’s back-loaded schedule, five of their remaining eight games will be at home. That’s the most of any team in the division. And only two games (vs. Dallas, at Baltimore) are against teams currently in playoff position.
The Times’ computer says if the Dolphins beat the Raiders and Jets in the next two games, their playoff chances soar to 99 percent and their division-title chances would be 93 percent.
Sizing up the AFC East competition
As for the three other teams in the AFC East:
Buffalo (5-5)
Home/away breakdown of remaining games: 3 home, 4 away.
Games vs. teams in playoff position: Brutal (at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, vs. Dallas, at Miami).
Briefly: Remember the Broncos, the team that lost 70-20 to the Dolphins? They just won in Buffalo 24-22 as the Bills committed four turnovers, then gave Denver a second chance at a walk-off field goal by having 12 men on the field as the first kick failed.
The fiasco led to Joe Brady taking over as interim offensive coordinator to “find consistent production,” coach Sean McDermott said. The only thing consistent about quarterback Josh Allen’s play is carelessness with the ball. Allen has 11 interceptions, putting him on pace for a career high, in addition to four fumbles.
Network analysts have hammered Allen on air and via social media:
Ryan Clark: “Josh Allen is a reason that the Buffalo Bills are not winning football games.”
Richard Sherman: “The Josh Allen conversation NEEDS to be had!”
Robert Griffin III: “The industry talks about Dak’s ints the way they should talk about Josh Allen’s.”
New York Jets (4-5)
Home/away breakdown: 4 home, 4 away.
Games vs. teams in playoff position: vs. Miami, vs. Houston, at Miami, at Cleveland.
Briefly: Aaron Rodgers is hoping to return from his Achilles injury in mid-December, which would spice the Jets’ Dec. 17 visit to Miami. Regardless of whether Rodgers completes his lightning-fast comeback, the Dolphins cannot expect smooth sailing in two matchups with New York, which has the seventh-ranked defense in the league.
The problem, of course, is an offense stuck in park with QB Zach Wilson, who has more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five). The Jets have scored 18 points, total, the past two games.
Receiver Garrett Wilson, speaking on ESPN Radio, talked about the players-only meeting, saying, “We’ve got to make sure we’re all on the same page about where we’re at and how the hell we get out of this funk, man.” He added, “I’m truly sorry about the product offensively.”
New England (2-8)
Who’ll leave first, Bill Belichick or Mac Jones?
Dolphins know anything can happen in stretch run
For their part, Dolphins players run from any suggestion they’re in the driver’s seat in the East.
“Honestly, I don’t even know the standings and all that,” linebacker Jerome Baker said in response to a question about the 1 1/2-game lead.
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Reminded about that lead, Baker said, “I guess that’s a good thing. But I kind of take it with a grain of salt. You know we’ve still got to play the Buffalo game. We’ve still got to play the Jets.”
Having been around since 2018, Baker has seen his share of hopes rising and falling.
“It’s a long season,” he said. “A few years ago, we were 1-7, we went on a win streak and went from not being close to the playoffs to we almost got in.”
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Of course, Baker has a point. With nearly half the season remaining, things can happen. Two games against the Jets could flip the script. Despite all their injuries, the Bills and Allen could start playing like the Bills and Allen. They could get on a roll before their regular-season finale in Miami. The Patriots, well, never mind.
The one given is that the Dolphins have quickly become the hunted.
“Everybody is going to give us their best shot,” Chubb said. “There is no, ‘Ah, man, we started off slow.’ When you’ve got people coming and gunning for you, you’ve got to start fast and finish fast and maintain throughout the game. That’s going to be our main thing.”
Dolphins reporter Hal Habib can be reached at hhabib@pbpost.com. Follow him on social media @gunnerhal.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Mike McDaniel, 1st-place Miami Dolphins setting up for playoff ‘journey'
