Midterms, Paul Pelosi assault, Fed meeting: 3 things to watch in politics this week

Kevin Cirilli

It's shaping up to be a busy week ahead for markets as investors look to the midterm elections for who will win control of Congress as well as key economic data that could indicate whether the U.S. is heading toward a recession.

Here are three stories at the intersection of business and politics to watch going into November:

Midterm elections

There are just eight days to go until the midterm elections, and polls suggest that the races in key battleground states are tightening as more than 20 million ballots have already been cast, according to CNN.

Republicans are slightly favored to take back control of the House while the Senate remains in a dead heat.

That said, results from a New York Times/Siena poll released on Monday give Democrats a slight edge in four Senate battleground states: In Arizona, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) leads Blake Masters (R) 51% to 45%; in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman (D) is leading Mehmet Oz (R) 49% to 44%; in Georgia, Dems are up 3 points, with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading Herschel Walker (R) 49% to 46%; and in Nevada, it's a deadlock as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R) are tied at 47%.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 29: Former US President Barack Obama speaks at a rally with Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers (L) and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin Mandela Barnes on October 29, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Evers and Barnes, who currently serves as the state's lieutenant governor, are in the midst of close mid-term races. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Former US President Barack Obama speaks at a rally with Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers (L) and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin Mandela Barnes on October 29, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) (Scott Olson via Getty Images)

Last weekend, President Biden hit the campaign trail in Pennsylvania, where he looked to help Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman following the latest debate against Dr. Mehmet Oz, his GOP challenger. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama campaigned in Georgia for Democratic Senate candidate Raphael Warnock, who is looking to beat GOP candidate Herschel Walker.

Biden wants to make this a choice election in states like Georgia and Nevada, which he carried against Trump in 2020. But the momentum in these races has tilted toward Republicans in recent weeks as record-high inflation continues to pummel consumers and many economists predict a recession next year.

Political violence in America

Security has become top of mind ahead of the midterms, especially after Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), was attacked last week in the couple’s San Francisco home. His attacker, Paul DePape, is set to be arraigned later this week on multiple charges, including attempted homicide.

Investigators work outside the home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband Paul Pelosi in San Francisco, Friday, Oct. 28, 2022. Paul Pelosi, was attacked and severely beaten by an assailant with a hammer who broke into their San Francisco home early Friday, according to people familiar with the investigation. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Investigators work outside the home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband Paul Pelosi in San Francisco, Friday, Oct. 28, 2022, after Paul Pelosi was attacked and severely beaten by an assailant. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Lawmakers have called for a de-escalation of political rhetoric, and some are calling on Congress to address how to better protect lawmakers and their families. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said security for top Congressional leaders and their families should be “strongly considered.”

“There can be various levels of protection,” Klobuchar told NBC's "Meet The Press." “It doesn't have to be the kind of full-out protection you see for people who are in the line of succession to the presidency. But certainly, there has to be a different level of threat that allows members to get protection. Maybe it's local police, maybe it's more funding for the marshals. So that's part of it.”

Fed speak

Investors will hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday on whether the central bank will raise interest rates again in November. The FOMC's latest policy decision comes as the Fed continues to grapple with record-high inflation and concerns that the economy is headed for a recession.

FILE - Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell listen during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Dec. 1, 2020. President Joe Biden announced Monday, Nov. 22, 2021 that he's nominating Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chair, endorsing Powell's stewardship of the economy through a brutal pandemic recession in which the Fed's ultra-low rate policies helped bolster confidence and revitalize the job market. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, Pool, File)
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell listens during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Dec. 1, 2020. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, Pool, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

And on Friday, the Labor Department will release the October jobs report. Economists anticipate that the U.S. economy added 190,000 jobs for the month, according to consensus estimates from Bloomberg. With unemployment at 3.5% in September, many investors will be watching to see if there are any signs of deterioration in the labor market.

- Kevin Cirilli is a visiting media fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue. Follow him on LinkedIn.

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