Michigan State basketball vs. Rutgers tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Rutgers
• When: Noon Sunday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 388 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 387 (Rutgers broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-7 overall, 1-4 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 17 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Rutgers is 9-6 overall, 1-3 in the Big Ten and unranked in the AP and Coaches polls. The Scarlet Knights are No. 87 in Kenpom's ratings.
• Vegas line: MSU -11.5
• Coaches:MSU — Tom Izzo is 696-287 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Rutgers — Steve Pikiell is 323-286 in his 29th season as a head coach, including 126-112 in his eighth season with the Scarlet Knights.
• Series: MSU leads 12-3 all-time. The teams split last season, with MSU winning at Breslin Center and Rutgers winning at New York's Madison Square Garden.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 4.9
F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 10.5
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.9
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 20.4
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.6
Rutgers
C (11) Clifford Omoruyi (6-11) 10.3
F (3) Mawot Mag (6-7) 10.7
F (5) Aundre Hyatt (6-6) 11.9
G (24) Austin Williams (6-4) 5.5
G (0) Derek Simpson (6-3) 9.7
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 71-68 loss at Illinois on Thursday night, which came on the heels of a lackluster defeat at Northwestern last Sunday. Being home again will be welcomed by an MSU team that won five straight games in front of their own fans not long ago and played well doing it. At 9-7 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten, MSU needs to put some wins together. After Sunday afternoon’s date with Rutgers, the Spartans host Minnesota on Thursday night, before traveling to Maryland next weekend. MSU will be favored in all three games. Then the Spartans get four days off before a rematch with Wisconsin. They’d like to be 12-7 and 4-4 in the Big Ten when they roll into Madison on Jan. 26.
Despite MSU’s mediocre overall record and poor Big Ten mark, the Spartans are still considered one of the better teams in the country by the most reputable metrics. They’re No. 17 in Kenpom’s ratings, No. 10 on Barttorvick.com and No. 25 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, having moved up a spot with the loss at Illinois — a reminder that close road defeats against quality opponents don’t actually hurt you. But at some point, you do have to win some games.
RELATED:Couch: Michigan State's basketball team is closer to contention than it appears, warts and all
• Rutgers update: The Scarlet Knights beat Indiana 66-57 at home on Tuesday. They’ll have two more days to rest and prepare for this matchup than MSU will, just like both Northwestern and Illinois did. Rutgers' only quality win this season came at Seton Hall in early December. The Scarlet Knights’ Big Ten losses are to Illinois at home and at Ohio State and Iowa. The Illini beat them by 18 points in Piscataway back in December, though that Illinois team still had Terrence Shannon Jr. and Rutgers did not yet have forward Mawot Mag back from injury. Mag returned just after that — beginning with the Seton Hall game. The Scarlet Knights’ season fell apart last February after he suffered a knee injury in their game against MSU at Madison Square Garden.
• Inside the matchup: After seemingly 47 years, Rutgers roster has finally had some turnover. Still, there are familiar names and good players on this team — including Mawot Mag and starting center Clifford Omoruyi, as well as this season’s leading scorer, wing Aundre Hyatt, who’s stepped into a more prominent roll. Mag turned out to be Rutgers’ glue guy a year ago. His absence late in the season was too much to overcome. He’s begun to pick up his scoring in the seven games since his return, reaching double figures in each of Rutgers' last three games, against Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana, including 24 against the Hawkeyes.
Omoruyi is a bad matchup for MSU’s Mady Sissoko. We saw this play out a year ago. He’s like Sissoko 2.0 and that’s the worst assignment for any player — someone who is similar to you but just a little bit bigger and better at everything. Jaxon Kohler, more of a contrasting player, had the most success of an MSU big man against Omoruyi last season, especially in the game at Breslin Center.
Aundre Hyatt is Rutgers’ only somewhat consistent long-range shooting threat. That’s an issue for the Scarlet Knights, who are making less than 29% of their 3-point tries this season, which ranks them 336th in Division I. They aren’t any better on 2-point tries, either, ranking 334th. In other words, this is a bad offensive team. Defensively, however, they’re tremendous — top seven in the country in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, 11th in effective field-goal percentage defense, 14th in turnover percentage, 12th defending 2s, top five in block rate (thanks to Omoruyi's rim protection) and pretty sound on the perimeter, holding opponents to 31.5% on 3s. Rutgers can be frustrating to play, but MSU will get some open looks from deep and should be able to keep the Scarlet Knights’ offense in check.
RELATED:Couch: How much older is Big Ten basketball? A lot. And Michigan State leads the way
• Prediction: While there are individual matchups that aren’t great for MSU — Sissoko vs. Omoruyi, primarily — the Spartans are the better team, they’re at home where their defense has been outstanding and they should have enough offensive punch to win without sweating in the final minutes.
• Make it: MSU 70, Rutgers 57
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Rutgers: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
