Michigan State basketball vs. Penn State tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Penn State
• When: 7 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Streaming on Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 85 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 380 (Penn State broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 8-5 overall, 0-2 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 20 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Penn State is 7-6 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten and unranked by both major polls. The Nittany Lions are rated No. 108 by Kenpom.
• Vegas line: MSU -13.5
• Coaches:MSU — Tom Izzo is 695-285 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Penn State — Mike Rhoades is 380-195 in his 20th season as a head coach. He's in his first season with the Nittany Lions after stops at Randolph Macon (Division III), Rice and, most recently, VCU, where he went 129-61 in six seasons.
• Series: MSU leads 43-10 all-time. MSU won the only meeting last season, 67-58, on Dec. 7 in State College, Pennsylvania.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 4.8
F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 10.0
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.6
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 20.0
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.3
Penn State
C (22) Wahab Qudus (6-11) 9.9
F (24) Zach Hicks (6-8) 6.7
F (4) Puff Johnson (6-8) 7.0
G (00) Kanye Clary (5-11) 18.2
G (1) Ace Baldwin Jr. (6-1) 13.6
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off an 87-75 win over Indiana State on Saturday, their fourth straight win, all by double digits, dating back to a Dec. 16 game against Baylor. MSU will be without freshman backup point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. for the foreseeable future, as Fears recovers from surgery after being shot in the leg two days before Christmas. The Spartans are expecting to get back big man Jaxon Kohler soon, perhaps as early as Sunday’s game at Northwestern. Kohler has missed the entire season thus far with a foot injury. This is MSU’s first Big Ten game since losing consecutive games at home against Wisconsin and at Nebraska in early December, which were also the Spartans’ last defeats before their current winning streak. MSU’s final 18 regular-season games are all in Big Ten play.
• Penn State update: The Nittany Lions are coming off back to back blowout wins over low-majors Le Moyne and Rider, following a stretch in which they lost six of seven games, mostly against legitimate competition, including to Georgia Tech and Maryland both in overtime, VCU, Butler (by 10) and Texas A&M. They also lost to Bucknell (ranked No. 320 by Kenpom.com) during that period and beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions’ roster features 10 transfers — two who came with first-year head coach Mike Rhoades from VCU and one, RayQuawndis Mitchell, who’s playing at his fifth school. So this is an unrecognizable Penn State team, beyond the uniforms.
• Inside the matchup: The Nittany Lions have a couple good, small guards in sophomore Kanye Clary and VCU transfer Ace Baldwin. Clary, Penn State’s leading scorer and only returning player averaging more than 10 minutes per game, is smooth on the drive and finishes well below the rim. He’s a decent 3-point shooter (18 made 3s at 37%) but that’s not what makes him stand out. Baldwin is the Nittany Lions’ point guard and can get his own shot at multiple levels, though he’s shooting less than 30% from long range this season. Defensively he’s perfect for Penn State’s pressing system and leads the Big Ten in steals by a bit at 2.7 per game. Where the Nittany Lions struggle, beyond sometimes iffy outside shooting, is on the glass and protecting the rim. During their five-game losing streak, they were out-rebounded by more than eight rebounds per game. If the Spartans handle Penn State’s pressure, I think they’ll find good looks both beyond the arc and especially at the basket.
• Prediction: Izzo has been extremely pleased with his team of late, not just for how they’ve played the last four games, but how his players have come back from Christmas break and practiced. Based on the ebbs and flows of Izzo’s mood historically, the Spartans are due for some regression. Energy is unlikely to be an issue for the Spartans in this one. This is the Izzone Alumni game, the one chance for the old-timers — some of them now approaching 50 — to jump and holler like they did in the student section back in their day. MSU not only almost always wins this game, but, other than 2022, they’ve covered the point spread during the last seven Izzone Alumni games by an average of more than nine points per game. The betting line for this one opened at MSU -13.5. I don't the think the Spartans will win by 24 points, but ...
• Make it: MSU 81, Penn State 65
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Penn State: Prediction, how to watch, betting line
