Michigan State basketball at Minnesota tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State at Minnesota
• When: 9 p.m. (ET) Tuesday
• Where: Williams Arena, Minneapolis
• TV/Radio: Streaming on Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 372 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 85 (Minnesota broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 14-8 overall, 6-5 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and Coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 17 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Minnesota is 14-7 overall and 5-5 in the Big Ten and unranked by the AP and Coaches polls. The Gophers are ranked No. 76 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -3
• Coaches:MSU — Tom Izzo is 701-288 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Minnesota — Ben Johnson is 36-46 in his third season as a head coach, all with the Gophers.
RELATED:Couch: Tom Izzo still has bigger goals and milestones, but win No. 700 meant something
• Series: MSU leads 66-58 all-time, including a 76-66 win on Jan. 18 at Breslin Center.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 4.3
F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 11.6
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.8
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 18.9
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.5
Minnesota
C (3) Dawson Garcia (6-11) 17.7
F (1) Joshua Ola-Joseph (6-7) 9.9
G (26) Cam Christie (6-6) 10.7
G (2) Mike Mitchell (6-2) 10.3
PG (0) Elijah Hawkins (5-11) 8.8
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 64-54 win over Maryland in a slugfest Saturday. They’ve now won five of their last six games and 10 of their past 13, dating back to the bludgeoning of Baylor that changed the tone of the season. Like the win over Maryland, this game at Minnesota is another rematch of a game played less than three weeks ago. That’ll be followed by second dates with Illinois (at home this Saturday), then at Penn State (next Wednesday) and at Michigan (Feb. 17). Then four of the Spartans’ final five games are against teams they haven’t played yet.
Senior Malik Hall, who scored 19 points against Maryland — 14 of them in the second half — has put together a stretch that’s worth noting. In his last 10 games, he’s scored 12 or more points nine times and hauled in six or more rebounds six times and is averaging 14.3 points and 5.6 rebounds. This is a homecoming game for sophomore guard Tre Holloman, who grew up in Minneapolis. MSU did not play the Gophers last season, so this is his first trip back as a player since coming to MSU.
• Minnesota update: The Gophers have won two straight, winning at Penn State on Jan. 27 and then, this past Saturday, beating Northwestern at home in overtime to put themselves in the NCAA tournament conversation. With a NET ranking of 91 and no Quad 1 wins yet, this is the sort of game Minnesota needs to win to get on the bubble. MSU is No. 22 in the NET, so this would qualify as a Quad 1 win, even at home, where the opponent has to be in the top 30. The Gophers have a few more opportunities for quality wins, including at Purdue, at Nebraska, at Illinois and at Northwestern, which, because it’s a road game, would likely be a Quad 1 win.
• Inside the matchup: In the meeting on Jan. 18 — won by MSU 76-66 — the Gophers pushed the Spartans late into that game. I think that helps the Spartans here. They know what it feels like to face Minnesota. They’ll respect them. This will be a slightly different Gophers team, with point guard Elijah Hawkins back in the fold. He missed the last meeting with a sprained ankle, forcing the Gophers to play a bigger lineup. I’m not sure that hurt them matchup-wise, but they weren’t as deep and that hurt when the fouls mounted. Hawkins is a small and elusive guard who makes the Gophers go. But it’s big man Dawson Garcia who’s the problem matchup for MSU — though the Spartans made him work for his 22 points in the last game, with Garcia missing 9 of 14 shots from the floor. The Gophers made seven 3s that night in East Lansing. But overall they are shooting just 29.6% from deep in conference play. But they are the league’s best 2-point shooting team at nearly 55%, a testament to how much work they get done in the paint.
RELATED:Couch: How much older is Big Ten basketball? A lot. And Michigan State leads the way
• Prediction: This will be a tough road environment against a team that’s shown it’s good enough to beat the Spartans, especially at Williams Arena. If MSU can keep Garcia in check again and keep Minnesota from having an uncharacteristic day from beyond the arc, I like the matchup for the Spartans, who've also shown they can handle the pressure of tight games late.
• Make it: MSU 70, Minnesota 67
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Minnesota: Prediction, how to watch, betting line
