Michigan football vs. Alabama: Scouting report, prediction for Rose Bowl

INGLEWOOD, Calif. − Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's College Football Playoff semifinal matchup in the Rose Bowl on Monday:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 1 Michigan (13-0) vs. No. 4 Alabama (12-1), Rose Bowl/College Football Playoff semifinal.

Kickoff: 5:10 p.m. Monday; Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

TV/radio: ESPN; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 1½.

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Injury report

Michigan: Out: OL Zak Zinter (leg)

Alabama: None.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: Michigan brings the No. 14 scoring offense (36.7 points per game) into play against Alabama's No. 16 scoring defense (18.4 points) and though the Wolverines have played the Nos. 2-4 defenses (Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa) in the past six weeks, players and coaches alike have said this Crimson Tide unit will be the toughest. Many have compared Alabama's front of Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner to the Nittany Lions and their edges of Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac — that duo forced the Wolverines to finish their November game against PSU with 32 straight rushes. That won't work against Alabama, which will make staying balanced all the more critical.

In last year's semifinal, J.J. McCarthy accounted for three touchdowns and 395 yards of offense, including 52 yards rushing and a score on the ground — U-M will need more of that. But he also had two costly pick-sixes, and U-M can't have any of that. On the ground, it's all about Blake Corum. U-M's star running back was held in check this season in many ways — he topped 100 yards just twice in 2023 after he ran for at least 108 yards in eight 2022 Big Ten games — but is still the tone-setter for the unit.

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When Alabama has the ball: Michigan's defense ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring (9.5 points allowed per game), No. 2 in turnover margin (plus-17) and No. 2 in total defense (239.7 yards per game) while leading the Big Ten in turnovers forced (24 — 16 interceptions and eight fumbles). U-M believes those numbers are a product of superior talent, not just a bunch of bad offenses. Quarterback Jalen Milroe will put that to the test. Alabama is No. 17 in scoring (35.1 points), No. 15 in third-down conversion rate (46.7%) and No. 5 in yards per completion (15.47) thanks to its wide receiver duo of Jermaine Burton (35 catches, 777 yards and eight TDs) and Isaiah Bond (44 catches, 621 yards and four TDs). Meanwhile, the Tide's offensive line averages nearly 350 pounds across the board as it bulldozes the way for leading rusher Jase McClellan (165 carries, 803 yards and six touchdowns).

Know the foe

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Super Saban: If there's one reason to fear the Crimson Tide, it's head coach Nick Saban. Now in his 17th season in Tuscaloosa, the former Michigan State boss is 194-27 (.878) with the Tide, with six national championships. He also won a national title at LSU in 2003; his seven as head coach are the most all time. In the past nine CFPs, Alabama is 6-1 in semifinals, with six straight wins.

For anybody who thinks U-M is the only team who was counted out this season, think again. “Well, we had some really good rat poison early, it was almost like Wheaties,” Saban said Saturday. “Everybody criticized us and said we weren’t good, we’re done, Coach Saban is past his prime, all of that was like eating Wheaties. Breakfast of champions, that helped us.”

Milroe-mania: Benched after a disappointing Week 2 performance, Jalen Milroe returned to starting in Week 4 and has gotten on the same page with offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. "I took it as a learning moment to look in the mirror and figure out some things I need to improve on," Milroe said. "(How to) be the best leader I can be because at the end of the day, it’s all about being the best teammate I can be.”

Milroe has completed 65.5% (171-for-261) of his passes for 2,718 yards, 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions and run for 468 yards plus a team-best 12 touchdowns. His only weakness might be turnovers, as Milroe has fumbled nine times this season.

Fearsome foursome: Although Alabama has multiple game-wreckers, there are four on defense who could realistically be first-round NFL draft picks next April in Detroit. Turner was named a consensus All-American, with McCarthy calling him "one of the best players I've ever seen." He had 50 tackles (24 solo), including a team-high 13½ for loss and nine sacks. Opposite him, Braswell (Corum's former high school teammate at St. Frances Academy in Baltimore) has 41½ tackles, 10½ for loss and three sacks. Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is not only first-team All-Name, but also an All-American. The junior had 27 tackles (19 solo) and seven passes defended while his counterpart, Terrion Arnold, was also named an All-American after leading the SEC with five interceptions and recording 61 tackles, including 6½ for loss and a sack

Tony Garcia's two cents

Punch first: The Wolverines fell behind 17-0 early in the 2021 CFP semi and 21-3 in the 2022 CFP semi. U-M made it a game last year, with a chance to win in the final minute, but it was constantly playing catchup. That's not the Wolverines' formula; they simply cannot spot Alabama a multi-score lead.

"In a big game like this, you can't get behind the eight-ball," Corum said Wednesday. "You must start fast, on the first or second drives, points have to get put up."

Addicted to Love(land): Assuming the Crimson Tide controls the ground and the battle between WRs and DBs, the Wolverines will have to find some other way to move the ball — one likely candidate is tight end Colston Loveland “He is a very good receiver,” Turner said of Loveland, the potential x-factor. “He can block too. He is a very well put-together tight end. You know it’s going to also be a challenge stopping him on Monday. A lot of guys, a lot of DBs watch a lot of film on him.”

Prediction

Two legendary programs. Two legendary coaches. One legendary venue. There's no hyperbole too grand for "The Granddaddy of Them All." What the Wolverines have said all year isn't just talk: Since last year's crushing defeat, they've had a laser focus to get back to the CFP. McCarthy vs. Milroe. Corum and U-M's line vs. the ferocious Crimson Tide front. Jesse Minter's "we-fense" against Rees' attack tailored to Milroe's skillset. There's not much more one could ask for. As the sun sets behind the San Gabriel mountains and the fourth quarter begins, the game will be in the balance. It's just hard to go against the Tide. The pick: Alabama 26, U-M 23.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Alabama: Rose Bowl scouting report, prediction