When will Miami and the rest of Florida feel Subtropical Storm Nicole’s rain and wind?

Subtropical Storm Nicole is forecast to make landfall along Florida’s east coast this week, bringing heavy rain, dangerous storm surge and strong winds to the state.

Several watches were issued Monday for the system, which is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday once it’s near or over the northwestern Bahamas.

Where will it make landfall in Florida? How strong will it be? And when will Florida start feeling it?

Here’s what the forecast shows:

Where could Nicole make landfall? How strong will it be?

Nicole could possibly be at or near Category 1 hurricane strength by the time it approaches Florida’s east coast between Wednesday night and Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Monday afternoon advisory.

As of 4 p.m., the forecast shows Nicole as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph once it’s moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas.

The models differ on where landfall could be, stretching as far south as Homestead to as far north as Jacksonville, said WSVN-Channel 7 meteorologist Vivian Gonzalez. The hurricane center’s forecast track shifted slightly south in the 10 a.m. advisory and now shows Nicole’s center making landfall just north of Jupiter.

READ MORE: Gov. DeSantis issues emergency declaration for 34 counties ahead of storm Nicole

“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.,” the hurricane center said.

Once it makes landfall, the storm’s center is forecast to weaken as it crosses the state and into the Gulf of Mexico, near Hernando County’s Spring Hill, which is in Florida’s west coast. Nicole is then forecast to turn into northern Florida and trek across the state into Georgia and South Carolina.

When will South Florida feel Nicole?

“Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the upcoming week,” the hurricane center said Monday.

The center expects portions of Florida’s east coast will begin to feel tropical storm conditions by Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions possible by Wednesday night.

How much of an impact Nicole will have on Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe will depend on where the center of the system comes ashore, said WPLG-Channel 10 hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. South Florida is also under a coastal flood statement through at least Monday evening due to king tides.

“Despite the potential for a strong tropical storm or even borderline hurricane near landfall mid-week, the orientation of upper-level winds will likely shunt more serious inland hazards like heavy rainfall north of the center,” Lowry wrote in his Eye on the Tropics blog Monday morning. “The current forecast scenario, with landfall north of Palm Beach County, could limit the heavy rainfall potential for our area. Of course, even a few days out, the average track error is about the distance from Miami to Jupiter, so we’ll need to watch those forecast trends closely.”

Based on Nicole’s current track, here’s what South Florida should expect:

▪ South Florida could see heavy rain and some flooding Tuesday night through Friday, mostly in coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties, the National Weather Service in Miami said.

The National Weather Service in Key West doesn’t expect the island chain will see much rain. However, the Keys will have other impacts, including hazardous marine conditions and gusty winds.

▪ Part of the east coast of Georgia and most of Florida’s east coast are under a storm surge watch, from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Hallandale Beach in Broward County and from the mouth of the St. Johns River in Jacksonville to the east of the city of Palatka in Putnam County..

▪ South Florida could feel Nicole’s tropical storm-force winds as soon as Wednesday morning, although marine and beach conditions will deteriorate before then, according to the National Weather Service. Tuesday will not be a day to take out the boat.

▪ There’s a high risk of rip currents at all Atlantic beaches, as well as a high surf risk primarily for Palm Beach County beaches, according to the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook.

“Swimmers should exercise caution today and make sure they only swim in view of an on-duty lifeguard,” the weather service said.

What will the weather be like on Election Day in South Florida?

There’s good news for voters:

Nicole shouldn’t affect your trip to the polls on Election Day. The National Weather Service’s forecast is calling for Tuesday to be mostly sunny in Miami-Dade, Broward, Monroe and Palm Beach counties with a high in the 80s. There’s a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Rain chances are expected to pick up Tuesday night, mostly after 8 p.m. The polls close at 7 p.m.

Are there any watches, warnings in effect for Florida?

▪ A hurricane watch in effect for Florida’s east coast from the Volusia-Brevard county line south to Hallandale Beach in Broward County. A watch is also in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

▪ Storm surge watch in effect from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to Hallandale Beach and from the mouth of the St. Johns River in Jacksonville to the east of the city of Palatka in Putnam County.

▪ Tropical storm watch in effect for Altamaha Sound south to the Volusia-Brevard county line and from Hallandale Beach in Broward County to north of Ocean Reef in the Florida Keys.

Miami Herald staff writers Alex Harris and Omar Rodríguez Ortiz contributed to this report.