Do Miami Dolphins truly trust in Tua’s health and future? Prove it with a long-term deal | Opinion

The Miami Dolphins’ head coach and general manager sat side-by-side on Monday for their annual season postmortem, this autopsy coming after a playoff game, at least, but still ending too soon.

Near the start of the 30-minute media session Chris Grier, the GM, said of the season, “I say successful, but we’re not satisfied” and, “Disappointed we lost, but very excited” — which is what you say at a time like this, after nine wins and nine losses.

Something closer to the truth came out of Grier as he and coach Mike McDaniel stood to leave. There was another describe-the-season question volleyed their way, and this time Grier answered with what sounded like the kind of regret you feel when the “what if?” really haunts you.

He said, “We had a year of...” and then he paused, and finished with, “If we hadn’t had injuries...”

If they hadn’t had one.

This team could have survived the wasted year injured cornerback Byron Jones, and survived top free agent tackle Terron Armstead dealing with a litany of hurts, and survived top running back Raheem Mostert missing the playoff game.

This team could not survive the two concussions of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The first one, maybe. But not the second. Not the one that meant everything when everything mattered, on Sunday, in the 34-31 elimination loss at Buffalo

Grier and McDaniel can’t say it this plain, but I can:

The Miami Dolphins should be planning for a trip to Kansas City right now and would be had the Fins been healthy at the one position they needed to be on Sunday. That may be stated without equivocation. The whole NFL knows it. Everybody in Buffalo knows it, too.

The Bills were lucky to catch Miami down to a rookie third-string quarterback and lucky to manage that narrow escape at home. Just as the Bills were lucky a week earlier to beat New England thanks to the freakish, heaven-sent anomaly of two kickoff-return touchdowns.

Buffalo is wobbly as the AFC East standard-bearer — the paper champion that hasn’t won anything, with a lauded QB prone to turnovers — and Miami is ripe for a takeover.

All it will take is everything that matters most:

The health of Tagovailoa.

It hovers over this franchise now, and will all offseason, and into next season.

“We fully expect him back next year, 100 percent and ready to go,” said Grier. “We’ve got our quarterback.”

Fully expect. That’s the same neighborhood as we hope.

But when your QB had two concussions this season (or was it three?), isn’t that a proneness that makes him susceptible to more?

“From our doctors, that’s not a true statement,” Grier said. “He’s no more prone than you or I.”

Well, then again, a defender with ill intent way too fast to weigh 300 pounds is not rushing Chris Grier in his office, or me as I sit before my laptop.

The Dolphins have the choice this offseason to pick up the option year on Tagovailoa’s contract and get him cheap for one more season but then have him become a free agent — or sign him to a high-dollar, long-term deal.

He blossomed this year (when healthy). He led the NFL in passer rating at 105.5., just ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Tagovailoa’s 8.9 yards per attempt led the NFL by a lot. No Dolphins QB has had bigger numbers in either since Dan Marino did in both in 1984.

“Everything is on the table,” said Grier of Tua’s contract situation.

Extending him one year on the cheap is what you do if you’re not sure about concussions and Tagovailoa’s long-term future.

A long-term deal now is what you do if you truly believe. If you saw enough of his talent this season. And if the fear of the next concussion is something you can live with.

I believe the Dolphins should invest in themselves and in Tagovailoa and extend him long-term. Then again, I don’t write checks with that many commas.

Miami has much to do this offseason beyond the paramount QB matter — and must do it without a 2023 first-round draft pick.

It was good to not see owner Stephen Ross intrude himself into the season-ending presser Monday. If Ross must continue to run the franchise, at least let him do so in the shadows, not out front as a further reminder that his botched tampering to try to woo Tom Brady caused the Dolphins to forfeit that ‘23 top pick.

Still, the offensive line and run game must become more consistently reliable — both essential to keeping Tagovailoa upright and healthy. The defense played better the second half of the season but still needs improving.

And McDaniel and the coaching staff must be better in terms of the clock management that hurt Miami so badly at the end of the playoff loss.

A rookie third-string QB, a missing running back, a new right tackle — all contributed to the late chaos Sunday, but McDaniel still needs to not be told it’s first down when it’s fourth-and-1, and then get the play called fast enough to avoid a super-costly delay of game penalty.

“It became a problem in crunch time,” McDaniel admitted. “Ultimately my responsibility. You don’t want time issues to be why you watch the rest of the postseason at home.”

That wasn’t the reason, though.

Again: Missing Tagovailoa was.

All of Dolfans’ hope depends on that man’s health. On Tua’s body, the seeming frailty of it. On Tua’s brain, the seeming proneness to concussions.

There is every reason for optimism, if you believe in his health moving forward.

The Dolphins just enjoyed a third consecutive winning regular season for the first time since 2003 and that was despite Tagovailoa twice sitting out games because of concussions.That was despite a sometimes-good, sometimes-not defense. That was despite an offensive line and running game that still need to be better.

That everything revolves around Tagovailoa’s health and availability is cause for both giddy optimism and dour hand-wringing.

Because we have now seen how good Miami can be with Tagovailoa ... and how bad Miami can be without him.

The club that spent his first two seasons disrespecting their young QB and working behind his back to move past him finally went all in in his Year 3 and saw enough good to roll dice on him as The Answer moving forward.

Soon it will be time for the Dolphins to quite literally put their money where their mouth is.

If they truly believe he will be 100 percent next season and isn’t prone to a chronic concussion issue, then lock him up long-term, pay him for what he showed when healthy this season.

It is a big risk.

It also is a big risk worth taking.