The Memo: How abortion could transform the midterms

The Washington consensus might have been proven wrong once again — this time on abortion.

The Supreme Court’s decision on June 24 striking down Roe v. Wade was always going to be huge news.

But Beltway strategists in both parties questioned the degree to which it would have a real electoral impact.

The popular view was that people for whom abortion is a pivotal issue already vote in every election — and that the economy would dominate November’s midterms.

Now, that idea looks far more questionable.

On Tuesday, voters in Kansas delivered a seismic shock, handing the pro-abortion rights side a victory in one of the most deep-red states in the nation.

The proposal before the electorate would have stated explicitly that the Kansas Constitution confers no right to abortion. It was rejected by about 18 points amid a massive turnout.

An abundance of national polling also shows Democrats’ chances improving in the midterms.

The Democratic rise in the polls seems to have commenced in or around late June — at exactly the same time the Supreme Court handed down its decision.

There could be other factors at play, including gas prices having declined from their highest levels. But it seems clear abortion is playing a big part.

On the day of the Supreme Court decision, data and polling site FiveThirtyEight gave Republicans a 53 percent chance of controlling the Senate after the midterms. Now, that has declined to 43 percent.

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday gave Democrats a 7-point advantage among all adults when respondents were asked which party they would prefer to see control Congress. The last time Monmouth polled that question, in June, the result was a tie.

The RealClearPolitics polling average showed Republicans with a 3.4-point lead over Democrats on the day the Supreme Court ruled. The margin has now dwindled to three-tenths of a point.

Democrats, though they are horrified by the loss of Roe, believe the Supreme Court has sparked a huge backlash — and that their party leaders need to press the political advantage.

“We are at such a tipping point now,” Democratic operative Abigail Collazo told this column. “We have the right message. Our message is aligned with the will of the voters. But where this could go off the rails is if the Democratic Party decides not to put the money behind the groundwork in states where this message can really make the difference.”

Other advocates of abortion rights assert that the Supreme Court decision has made the issue far more politically salient — and to a wider group of voters than ever before.

“A lot of people assumed, I think, that Roe v. Wade would always be the law of the land,” said Sam Lau, a spokesperson for Planned Parenthood Votes. “What has changed is the direct threat now, and how it is making headlines every day. I think that is going to be a motivating force to bring people to the polls like never before.”

Those hopes clearly extend to the White House and congressional leaders.

President Biden asserted on Wednesday that Republicans and others pressing an anti-abortion agenda “don’t have a clue about the power of American women.” He added, “In Kansas, they found out.”

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor that Kansas voters had “sent an unmistakable message to MAGA Republican extremists: back off women’s fundamental rights.”

And White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday that the previous 24 hours had seen “a lot of momentum … in our fight to restore Roe.”

In addition to the Kansas vote, Jean-Pierre pointed to the Department of Justice’s decision to sue Idaho over especially onerous restrictions on abortion set to take effect later this month.

She also noted the president’s signing of an executive order Wednesday designed to make it easier for women to travel out of state to obtain abortions.

To be sure, none of this makes it certain either that abortion restrictions can be rolled back or that Democrats can avoid electoral defeat in November.

Anti-abortion activists insist that the issue energizes their side as much as their opponents. They are casting the Kansas defeat as a minor setback in a longer, victorious march.

Meanwhile, Republicans and some independent analysts question whether abortion really has the power to reshape a political landscape otherwise dominated by economic issues.

Reacting to Biden’s comments Wednesday, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel released a statement insisting, “Our country is in a recession, Americans can’t afford gas or groceries, and yet all Joe Biden cares about is pushing his radical and unpopular late-term abortion agenda.”

But Democrats like Collazo argue that the supposed division between “social issues” and “kitchen table issues” is a false dichotomy when abortion access is in such self-evident peril.

“It is a kitchen table issue,” she argued. “People are talking about this in the grocery store, with their loved ones, in their faith communities.”

Meanwhile, the diminishing band of pro-abortion rights Republicans lament the direction the party has taken.

“At present, the Republican Party seems to be in the thrall of the far-right faction,” said Susan Bevan, a former national co-chairwoman of the now-defunct Republican Majority for Choice, a group that advocated for pro-abortion rights policies within the GOP.

“A Republican Party that was affiliated with limited government and fiscal responsibility has changed to be the party that I see now.”

One way or another, the outcome in Kansas is a powerful warning shot.

The abortion issue could yet transform the midterms.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.