Mark Davis: Texas GOP is tilting strongly one way. And it’s not Dade Phelan’s | Opinion

These are tough times for Texans who have hitched their political wishes to the downfall of Attorney General Ken Paxton and the House speakership of Dade Phelan. Paxton’s criminal prosecutions will be whimpering to an end, and so may Phelan’s political career.

A May 28 Republican runoff will determine whether voters in Phelan’s Beaumont district want him in the House at all. Even if he prevails versus challenger David Covey, speculation was already swirling that he would not survive the next speaker election in January. How did one of the most powerful politicians in the state wind up so hazardously on the ropes?

Part of the answer lies with the tastes of Republican voters, who have wearied of House obstructions on valued issues such as school choice and election integrity, even as the Legislature boasts other conservative achievements of recent sessions, from protecting the unborn to bolstering gun rights to stemming gender extremism.

But as loudly as Phelan’s allies tried to get voters to give him credit for those wins, two matters of his own choosing have landed him on the brink of extinction: a rushed, secretive and spectacularly failed Paxton impeachment and a reliance on Democrats to bolster his power base, leading to the naming of Democratic chairs for House committees in a supposedly red state.

Rep. Tom Oliverson of suburban Houston has already announced his candidacy for the speakership, citing as one factor the arrogance with which Phelan expected members to obediently fall in line with the impeachment parade without a full public examination of its basis. When I spoke with him this week, he described an overall lack of focus in the way certain conservative priorities have been sidelined and a dwindling tolerance for committee chairs who harbor direct hostility to agenda items favored by the House’s solid Republican majority.

The same voter distaste that jeopardizes Phelan threatens other Republicans in runoffs, and it spelled outright defeat for others on March 5. As a group, they don’t seem to be taking it well.

After Rep. Glenn Rogers’ tantrum in a Weatherford newspaper upon his loss to Mike Olcott in House District 60 west of Fort Worth, we now get Kronda Thimesch in Denton County, similarly griping in an op-ed after voters failed to sufficiently appreciate her in House District 65. No one likes to admit falling out of favor; but none of these beleaguered incumbents lost because of dark money political action committee ad campaigns. They are the victims of self-inflicted wounds in the form of decisions that repelled an increasingly conservative Republican electorate. In Thimesch’s case, there would be more empathy for her grievances if her own ads had not absurdly stated that her opponent shared a Beto O’Rourke-style wish to defund border security and “give in to Biden.”

That opponent was Mitch Little, one of Paxton’s impeachment attorneys, a particularly fitting beneficiary of voter disdain for the members who served as accessories to Phelan’s aggressions. He was also an immediate source of comment last week, calling for these chapters to come to a close as the prospect of Paxton’s trial on securities-fraud charges evaporated in a settlement with prosecutors requiring restitution, some community service and “ethics training.”

The fever dream of Paxton’s pursuers — the prospect of him tasting the wrath of a deep-blue Harris County jury — thus popped in a bubble-burst of disillusionment stretching from his Austin enemies to Washington, where U.S. Sen. John Cornyn had mocked a possible 2026 primary challenge by taunting Paxton that it would be “hard to run from prison.”

Well, Paxton won’t be going to prison, and Phelan may not be returning to the House. It is a good time for those on the short end of recent GOP disputes to get some clarity. Thimesch isn’t the only scorned figure lamenting that Republicans need to “stop the infighting” before it “destroys our state from the inside out.”

What they need to realize is that their fealty to Phelan and hostility to Paxton are what started these battles. The current swell of conservative reaction is the sound of those battles coming to an end.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis.

Do you have an opinion on this topic? Tell us!

We love to hear from Texans with opinions on the news — and to publish those views in the Opinion section.

• Letters should be no more than 150 words.

• Writers should submit letters only once every 30 days.

• Include your name, address (including city of residence), phone number and email address, so we can contact you if we have questions.

You can submit a letter to the editor two ways:

• Email letters@star-telegram.com (preferred).

• Fill out this online form.

Please note: Letters will be edited for style and clarity. Publication is not guaranteed. The best letters are focused on one topic.