Mark Davis: Did Trump announce his 2024 run too early? What will Ron DeSantis do?
Even as the clock ticked closer to the big Tuesday night announcement at Mar-a-Lago, I still felt I would believe it when I saw it. Who officially announces a presidential campaign virtually two full years before the election?
As it turns out, Donald Trump does. And now that he has, we can only wonder how his campaign will play out and the effect it will have on the entire 2024 presidential field. The answers may change, but here’s a snapshot a little over 700 days from Election Day:
Is it smart to announce so early?
In most cases, no, and history may record that jumping in a week after the prior election was not the best move. But Trump has toyed with virtually every campaign norm, so what’s one more?
There is a potential advantage to a head start. While Trump’s famed escalator ride into the 2016 race was in June of the previous year, Barack Obama kicked off his 2008 campaign in February 2007. Few thought that was a mistake at the time, mostly because anticipation was already running so high.
This time, Trump had a choice — months of hearing speculation about him running or months spent actually running. He chose the latter.
Does this mean Ron DeSantis and other Republican rivals need to step up their campaign announcements?
Not necessarily, but DeSantis, the Florida governor re-elected by a huge margin last week, is the only rival whose star power has millions of voters in Trump’s base wondering if he is a worthy alternative. DeSantis may not want to spend the entire first half of 2023 having everyone badger him about whether he’s running or not.
Everyone in Texas knew George W. Bush was running for president the moment he won re-election as governor in 1998, but he waited until the following June to announce. Today’s social-media-inflamed environment may not allow such a leisurely pace. If DeSantis envisions a White House run, as his tone and approach indicate, it will probably come sooner rather than later.
Does Trump’s entry freeze some Republican candidates out?
Yes, but we don’t know who they are. Few will admit to taking a pass simply to avoid the Trump steamroller. Others, like former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, are softening prior suggestions that they would not run if he did.
Some would surely enter a wide-open race with only DeSantis as a potential frontrunner. But throw in Trump as well, and there’s only so much bandwidth left for candidates seeking conservative votes. This has to give pause to Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz, even with their enviable track records.
What about candidates seeking to distance themselves from Trump?
From Trump tormentor Liz Cheney to outgoing moderate Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, there are Republicans who have distinctly opposed Trump, both politically and personally. One wonders if they are noticing the relative revulsion that tends to meet them in the GOP marketplace of ideas.
While some Republicans look to move on from Trump, even most of them are appreciative of his actual policies and achievements. They’re unlikely to embrace candidates who seem to define themselves first and foremost by opposition to him.
Isn’t Trump damaged by the losses of some of his chosen candidates in the midterms?
To some degree. But a party that still runs on the engine of his unapologetic conservatism is unlikely to hold a long grudge just because some of his endorsements did not pan out. Dr. Mehmet Oz isn’t going to the Senate from Pennsylvania, and Kari Lake will not be governor of Arizona, but individual wins and losses are usually attributed more to specific factors in specific states, rather than the supposed magic of a Trump anointment.
His detractors will say his appeal is fading, and it may not be what it was in 2016 or 2020. But midterm memories will quickly be swamped in the waves of fresh news.
Will Trump be able to restrain himself from attacking DeSantis if they are duking it out all year?
Probably not. He knows his sharp elbows cleared the Republican field in 2016, so why not go with what you know? But this isn’t 2016. None of his rivals on those crowded debate stages enjoyed the protective admiration being afforded DeSantis by millions of voters that Trump will try to court. His “Ron DeSanctimonious” reference a few days ago was just an offhand barb, but conservatives hated it.
There is a slice of the GOP that is ready to slap on MAGA hats and deliver Trump the second term he was denied. Opposite them are hopeful adventurers insisting the page must be turned toward new leaders. Between those two, the largest portion of Republicans can be found. They are appreciative of Trump but unsure whether he is the best hope for winning in 2024. They are impressed by DeSantis but unsure whether his Florida successes will flow seamlessly into a national campaign.
Few voters are committing to what they will do in the primaries that are still more than a year away. But Trump, with his early climb back into the campaign saddle, seeks to send a message that the road to the nomination leads right through him.
Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on Twitter: @markdavis.
