Is Marco Rubio crying wolf or does Val Demings really have him on the run? | Opinion

The dust from Florida’s primary elections hasn’t yet settled. But to hear Marco Rubio tell it, his November campaign already is in trouble.

On Monday, the eve of the primary elections, Florida’s senior Republican U.S. senator sent supporters an email saying his current campaign situation was “a disaster.”

Rubio said his opponent, Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings, had raised more money last month than he’d raised in the past three months combined and cited a recent poll that showed Demings beating him.

“My opponent is gaining momentum and I desperately need your support,” Rubio said before ending the email with a donation request that seemed to emphasize his desperation: “Please, I’m begging …”

If you believe Rubio, his campaign is such a sinking ship that Democrats are poised to steal a seat in Florida.

I don’t believe Rubio. I think he knows he’s still the heavy favorite among most polls and that he’s just sending out frantic-sounding emails in an attempt to scare gullible donors into coughing up money they otherwise wouldn’t.

Why do I believe that? Mainly because Florida Democrats haven’t managed to oust a Republican incumbent from statewide office since “Designing Women” was still on TV. We’re talking more than three decades.

Still, Rubio’s professed fears about his opponent mark a stark contrast to six years when he faced an easily beatable Democrat whose name most of you probably can’t even remember. (It was Patrick Murphy.)

The bottom line: Demings is giving Rubio and the Republicans a run for their money they weren’t expecting. The race is one of the most watched in the country and probably key to any chance the Democrats have of keeping a majority in Washington.

I still think Rubio wins. But Demings has managed to give Democrats hope — and Republicans anxiety.

That’s partly because of what the former police chief brings to the table — a nationally recognized name, prolific fundraising and the kind of law enforcement credentials that make it tough for Rubio to sling the “defund the police” attacks.

And also partly because Rubio is largely a man without a base. Put simply: Very few people are passionate about him — including very few Republicans.

He’s certainly no darling with the MAGA crowd, which cheered when Donald Trump emasculated “Little Marco” in 2016 and fumed at Rubio when he called their idol a “con artist” and “the most vulgar person to ever aspire to the presidency.”

Rubio ultimately tucked his tail between his legs, ate his words and endorsed Trump. But by then, more Republicans rolled their eyes than expressed gratitude. They viewed Rubio as a politician of convenience rather than conviction.

So, for the past six years, Rubio has been trying to bolster his conservative credentials by beefing up his bashing. As the Orlando Sentinel reported last week, Rubio’s targets of late have included the IRS, FBI and supporters of gay marriage. If there’s a perceived leftist threat that Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis fumed about first, Rubio has been jumping up and down on Twitter sidelines going: Me too!

I’m not sure anyone’s buying all his tough tweets. But I’m also not sure it matters.

Rubio’s No. 1 advantage is that he’s a Republican incumbent. And for more than 30 years in this state, that has been enough to guarantee reelection.

No Democrat has ousted a Republican from statewide office since 1990, when Gov. Lawton Chiles did it to Bob Martinez. Ever since — even when they were targeting Republicans like Rick Scott with sorry approval ratings — Democrats managed to lose. Sometimes by a percentage point or two. Sometimes by a fraction of a percent. But it was always a loss.

Democrats snagged a few open seats and won reelection a few times, but never managed to oust any statewide Republicans.

And keep in mind: Democrats posted all those losses during years when they had more registered voters in Florida than Republicans. Now, Democrats don’t even have that edge. Florida’s voting tendencies seem to keep shifting further to the right.

There’s no better evidence of that than the very last cycle. In 2020, much of America backed away from Trump. Some states even flipped from red to blue. Not Florida. Here, Floridians voted to put Trump back in the White House by an even-larger margin than they did the first time.

Basically, after Trump got impeached, much of America said: We’ve seen enough. But Florida voters said: Give us some more, and make it a double!

So it’s hard to see how a state that just doubled down on Trump would also want to promote one of the Democratic impeachment managers from the House to the Senate.

Consequently, most polls and pundits predict Rubio will win.

Still, Demings has obviously rattled Republican cages more than expected — and probably more than any other Democratic candidate would have.

So now we have a race — and Rubio “begging” fellow Republicans for help.

Scott Maxwell is a columnist for the Orlando Sentinel.

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