March Madness predictions: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for SEC basketball teams

Craig Meyer, USA TODAY NETWORK

March Madness is inching ever nearer to becoming the dominant topic in American sports — if it hasn't already.

The Super Bowl signifies the end of football's stranglehold on fans' attention. They should now be able to focus more clearly on college basketball, where conference play has ramped up in the final month of the 2023-24 college basketball season.

Conference games and tournaments remain to be played out, which of course will impact the final 2024 NCAA Tournament brackets, to be revealed on Selection Sunday. Until then, it doesn't hurt to keep track of where college basketball teams may rank at this point of the season.

REQUIRED READING: Tennessee basketball vs. Arkansas: Score prediction, scouting report for SEC game

So it is in the SEC, where questions of seeding, the March Madness bubble and potential snubs remain a pressing matter for more than a few teams. As we enter the final weeks of the 2023-24 regular season, here’s a look at what the field would look like as of today:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: this projection does not take into account games that took place on Tuesday, Feb. 13.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in:

  • Mississippi State

  • Butler

  • Nebraska

  • Cincinnati

First four out:

  • Utah

  • Wake Forest

  • Gonzaga

  • St. John’s

No. 1 seeds

  • UConn (22-2, 12-1 Big East): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 3

  • Purdue (22-2, 11-2 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 2

  • Houston (21-3, 8-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • Arizona (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 4

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (17-6, 7-3 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 7

  • North Carolina (19-5, 11-2 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 8

  • Marquette (18-5, 9-3 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 10

  • Iowa State (18-5, 7-3 Big 12): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9

The Vols have stumbled a bit of late, losing two of their past four games. But they still have a rock-solid resume, which includes a 9-6 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams while avoiding any losses to Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.

No. 3 seeds

  • Kansas (19-6, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 18

  • Alabama (17-7, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 6

  • Auburn (19-5, 8-3 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 5

  • Baylor (17-6, 6-4 Big 12) NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 14

As it has been throughout coach Nate Oats' tenure, the Crimson Tide has been a juggernaut this season with an offense predicated on 3-point shooting and attempts close to the basket. Alabama is No. 1 among all Division I teams in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

Staying in the Yellowhammer state, Auburn has fallen off a bit in recent weeks with a 3-3 record in its past six games after a 16-2 start. But the Tigers still have a strong statistical profile: They're No. 4 among all Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

No. 4 seeds

  • Illinois (17-6, 8-4 Big Ten): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 11

  • Duke (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 13

  • South Carolina (21-3, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 45

  • Dayton (19-4, 9-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 18 | KenPom: 24

South Carolina is the surprise team of the SEC this season. The Gamecocks are valued much more by polls — which have them in the top 15 nationally — than the metrics, which have it outside the top 40. Though it should even out more over the next month, there is a possibility there could be a disparity between where the Gamecocks are in the polls versus what seed they receive.

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No. 5 seeds

  • Creighton (17-7, 8-5 Big East): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 16

  • Wisconsin (16-8, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 21 | KenPom No. 17

  • BYU (17-6, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 12

  • San Diego State (18-6, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 20

No. 6 seeds

  • Saint Mary’s (20-6, 11-0 West Coast): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 23

  • Kentucky (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 28

  • Texas Tech (17-6, 6-4 Big 12): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 21

  • Florida Atlantic (19-5, 9-2 American Athletic): NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 30

The Wildcats are the rare program in college basketball in which a top-six seed and a national ranking in both of the major polls is viewed as a letdown. Kentucky is 4-5 in its past nine games and has been horrid defensively, with only lowly Vanderbilt and Missouri ranking lower in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

No. 7 seeds

  • Colorado State (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 32

  • Clemson (16-7, 6-6 ACC): NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 31

  • Oklahoma (18-6, 6-5 Big 12): NET No. 31 | KenPom No. 25

  • Utah State (20-4, 8-3 Mountain West): NET No. 29 | KenPom: 40

No. 8 seeds

  • Virginia (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 48

  • Texas (16-8, 5-6 Big 12): NET No. 34 | KenPom: No. 26

  • Texas A&M (15-8, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

  • Michigan State (15-9, 7-6 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 15

A month ago, the Aggies appeared to be on the outside looking in with a 10-7 record that included a 1-3 mark in SEC play. Since then, coach Buzz Williams' team has rattled off wins in five of its past six games, capped off by a 16-point home win against Tennessee.

No. 9 seeds

  • New Mexico (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 22

  • Florida (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 27

  • Indiana State (22-3, 13-1 Missouri Valley): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 38

  • Northwestern (17-7, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 56

The Gators haven't made the NCAA Tournament in either of the past two seasons, but that drought could very well end this season. Like Texas A&M, Florida has rebounded from an underwhelming start to SEC play by winning five of its past six games. Interestingly, it too earned a 16-point win over a top-20 foe over the weekend (vs. Auburn, in the Gators' case).

No. 10 seeds

  • TCU (16-7, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 36

  • Washington State (18-6, 9-4 Pac-12): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

  • Boise State (16-8, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 54

  • Ole Miss (18-5, 5-5 SEC): NET No. 59 | KenPom No. 60

Chris Beard was a controversial hire for the Rebels, but he's already showing just why a school might be willing to take a chance on him after his messy departure from Texas. With a month still remaining in the regular season, Ole Miss already has its most wins in a season since 2018-19.

No. 11 seeds

  • Nevada (19-5, 6-4 Mountain West): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 46

  • Mississippi State (16-8, 5-6 SEC): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 35

  • Butler (16-8, 7-6 Big East): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 49

  • Grand Canyon (22-2, 12-1 Western Athletic): NET No. 44 | KenPom No. 53

  • Nebraska (17-8, 7-7 Big Ten)**: NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 51

  • Cincinnati (15-8, 4-6 Big 12)**: NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 33

The Bulldogs are firmly in the hunt to make the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons for the first time in 15 years. As it was last season, coach Chris Jans' team is rugged and stingy defensively, ranking among the top 10 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

No. 12 seeds

  • McNeese (21-3, 10-1 Southland): NET No. 57 | KenPom No. 68

  • Samford (22-3, 11-1 Southern): NET No. 64 | KenPom No. 72

  • Richmond (17-6, 9-1 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 80

  • UC Irvine (18-7, 11-2 Big West): NET No. 74 | KenPom No. 75

No. 13 seeds

  • Yale (16-6, 7-0 Ivy): NET No. 83 | KenPom No. 89

  • Akron (18-6, 10-1 Mid-American): NET No. 89 | KenPom No. 95

  • South Florida (17-5, 10-1 American Athletic): NET No. 103 | KenPom No. 112

  • UNC Wilmington (18-6, 9-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 101 | KenPom No. 102

No. 14 seeds

  • Morehead State (20-5, 11-1 Ohio Valley): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 110

  • High Point (21-5, 10-1 Big South): NET No. 107 | KenPom No. 113

  • Vermont (19-6, 9-1 America East): NET No. 113 | KenPom No. 114

  • Eastern Washington (16-8, 10-1 Big Sky): NET No. 114 | KenPom No. 125

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (17-8, 11-1 Patriot): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 141

  • Troy (17-8, 10-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 133 | KenPom No. 129

  • Quinnipiac (19-5, 11-2 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 181

  • Green Bay (17-9, 12-3 Horizon): NET No. 174 | KenPom No. 183

No. 16 seeds

  • South Dakota State (14-11, 7-3 Summit): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 163

  • Sam Houston State (13-11, 6-3 Conference USA): NET No. 196 | KenPom No. 185

  • Eastern Kentucky (13-11, 9-2 ASUN): NET No. 208 | KenPom No. 191

  • Central Connecticut State (15-9, 9-2 Northeast): NET No. 226 | KenPom No. 251

  • North Carolina Central (13-9, 5-2 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 268 | KenPom No. 262

  • Grambling State (11-12, 8-2 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 312 | KenPom No. 301

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: March Madness predictions: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for SEC

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