March Madness predictions 4.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for SEC basketball teams

Craig Meyer, USA TODAY NETWORK

In fewer than two full weeks, the day that stands as a finish line for much of men’s college basketball will finally arrive and, at last, a bracket will be revealed.

For now, guesses at what that 68-team concoction will look like continue.

How will the SEC factor into that?

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the conference has seven teams in the field, four of which are a No. 4 seed or better. Tennessee, the No. 4 team in the latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, leads the group after one of its most impressive weeks of an already impressive 2023-24 season. Two of the Vols' vanquished foes last week, Alabama and Auburn, remain top-four seeds while Kentucky continues to climb during a late-season surge.

REQUIRED READING: College basketball rankings: SEC teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 on March 4

Elsewhere, South Carolina continues its remarkable one-year turnaround while Florida and Mississippi State have both remained solidly in the field.

Where do things stand now, with several big games looming in the next two weeks? Here’s a look at the projected bracket and where SEC teams fit in that larger picture:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: These projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, March 4.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

  • Virginia

  • Wake Forest

  • Colorado

  • Villanova

First four out

  • Seton Hall

  • Providence

  • St. John’s

  • Pitt

REQUIRED READING: Overbooked flights and Rick Barnes FaceTime calls: How Tennessee basketball landed transfer class

No. 1 seeds

  • Houston (26-3, 13-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • UConn (26-3, 16-2 Big East): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 2

  • Purdue (26-3, 15-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3

  • Arizona (23-6, 14-4 Pac-12): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 4

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (23-6, 13-3 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 5

  • North Carolina (23-6, 15-3 ACC): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9

  • Iowa State (23-6, 12-4 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 10

  • Marquette (22-7, 13-5 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 13

The Vols just barely missed making the one seed line in this projection after a stellar week in which they knocked off a pair of top-15 teams in Auburn and Alabama. While the top three overall seeds are solid to the point of being locks, Arizona remains the team most vulnerable to be jumped by a squad like Tennessee. For now, the Wildcats hang on to that top seed by virtue of a higher ranking in both major metrics, as well as a better record in Quad 1 games (8-3 for Arizona, 6-5 for Tennessee). A win Saturday at home against Kentucky, though, could very well move the Vols up a spot, regardless of what Arizona does.

No. 3 seeds

  • Duke (23-6, 14-4 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 7

  • Kansas (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 17

  • Alabama (20-9, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 8

  • Creighton (22-8, 13-6 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 11

The Crimson Tide have slipped a bit lately, with losses in two of its past three games. Coach Nate Oats' team remains the No. 1 team nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and is in the top 10 in both the NET and KenPom. Some of Alabama's shortcomings, though, have been apparent in recent weeks — namely, an occasionally porous defense that will make a deep March run that much harder to pull off.

No. 4 seeds

  • Auburn (22-7, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 6

  • Illinois (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 12

  • Baylor (21-8, 10-6 Big 12): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 14

  • Kentucky (21-8, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 18

The Tigers have a strong record, are fifth in one of the nation's toughest conferences and remain in the top 10 of both the NET and KenPom. The loss to Tennessee last week is understandable, especially since it came on the road and since Auburn was able to follow it up with a win against a strong Mississippi State team, but certain facets of the Tigers' NCAA Tournament resume leave something to be desired — particularly, one win in nine tries against Quad 1 opponents.

Kentucky, meanwhile, is playing at an offensive level few teams, if any, in the sport can match. The Wildcats have scored 319 points in their past three games, two points more than fellow tournament team Virginia has scored in its past six games. With an uber-talented freshman class, John Calipari's team may be peaking at just the right time, though a middling (albeit improving) defense will likely put damper on its championship aspirations.

No. 5 seeds

  • San Diego State (22-7, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 19

  • BYU (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 16

  • South Carolina (24-5, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 43

  • Washington State (23-7, 14-5 Pac-12): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

The Gamecocks picked up one of their most impressive wins of the season last Saturday, defeating top-25 Florida 82-76. Their 24 wins are two shy of a program single-season record, though to reach that mark in the regular season, they'll have to withstand one of their tougher stretches of the 2023-24 campaign: At home against Tennessee on Wednesday and at Mississippi State on Saturday.

No. 6 seeds

  • Saint Mary’s (24-7, 15-1 West Coast): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 22

  • Wisconsin (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 23

  • Dayton (22-6, 12-4 Atlantic 10): NET No. 21| KenPom: 27

  • Clemson (20-9, 10-8 ACC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 25

No. 7 seeds

  • Utah State (24-5, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 36 | KenPom: 42

  • Texas Tech (20-9, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 33

  • Boise State (21-8, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 24 | KenPom No. 34

  • Florida (20-9, 10-6 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 31

For the better part of the past two months, the Gators have been one of the SEC's best teams, with a 9-3 mark since Jan. 20. Even their three losses could have very easily gone the other way, as that trio of defeats came by a combined 12 points. They'll have a chance to further enhance their resume on Wednesday when they host Alabama in Gainesville, where they're 13-1 this season.

No. 8 seeds

  • Colorado State (21-9, 9-8 Mountain West): NET No. 34 | KenPom No. 36

  • TCU (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 38 | KenPom No. 32

  • Florida Atlantic (22-7, 12-4 American Athletic): NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 40

  • Nevada (24-6, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

REQUIRED READING: Vanderbilt basketball falls flat against LSU as Jordan Wright returns to Memorial

No. 9 seeds

  • Michigan State (17-12, 9-9 Big Ten): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 20

  • Mississippi State (19-10, 8-8 SEC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 30

  • Texas (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 27 | KenPom: No. 26

  • Oklahoma (19-10, 7-9 Big 12): NET No. 41 | KenPom No. 37

It was very nearly a much better week for the Bulldogs, who lost on a last-second Reed Sheppard buzzewr-beater against Kentucky last Tuesday. That setback coupled with a loss at Auburn four days later dropped Mississippi State to 0-2 on the week, but that short rut only does so much to hurt its tournament aspirations. Provided they take care of business Wednesday against Texas A&M, the Bulldogs should be fine.

No. 10 seeds

  • Northwestern (20-9, 11-7 Big Ten): NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 46

  • New Mexico (21-8, 9-7 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 38

  • Gonzaga (24-6, 14-2 West Coast Conference): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 15

  • Nebraska (21-9, 11-8 Big Ten): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 34

No. 11 seeds

  • Indiana State (26-5, 17-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 29 | KenPom No. 45

  • Princeton (23-3, 11-2 Ivy): NET No. 51 | KenPom No. 64

  • Virginia (21-9, 12-7 ACC)**: NET No. 49 | KenPom No. 69

  • Wake Forest (18-11, 10-8 ACC)**: NET No. 31, KenPom No. 21

  • Colorado (20-9, 11-7 Pac-12)**: NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 29

  • Villanova (17-12, 10-8 Big East)**: NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 24

No. 12 seeds

  • Grand Canyon (26-4, 16-3 Western Athletic): NET No. 55 | KenPom No. 57

  • McNeese (26-3, 15-1 Southland): NET No. 56 | KenPom No. 66

  • South Florida (22-5, 15-1 American Athletic): NET No. 79 | KenPom No. 89

  • Richmond (22-7, 14-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 77

No. 13 seeds

  • Appalachian State (26-5, 16-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 69 | KenPom No. 73

  • Samford (26-5, 15-3 Southern): NET No. 81 | KenPom No. 86

  • UC Irvine (22-8, 15-3 Big West): NET No. 76 | KenPom No. 74

  • Charleston (24-7, 15-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 104

No. 14 seeds

  • Akron (21-8, 13-3 Mid-American): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 101

  • Vermont (24-6, 14-1 America East): NET No. 97 | KenPom No. 97

  • High Point (24-7, 13-3 Big South): NET No. 108 | KenPom No. 112

  • Oakland (20-11, 15-5 Horizon): NET No. 138 | KenPom No. 141

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (22-9, 16-2 Patriot): NET No. 131 | KenPom No. 143

  • Eastern Washington (20-10, 14-3 Big Sky): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 137

  • South Dakota State (19-12, 12-4 Summit): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 149

  • Sam Houston State (18-11, 11-3 Conference USA): NET No. 161 | KenPom No. 154

No. 16 seeds

  • Quinnipiac (21-8, 13-5 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 189

  • Little Rock (20-11, 14-4 Ohio Valley): NET No. 188 | KenPom No. 192

  • Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4 ASUN)**: NET No. 205 | KenPom No. 200

  • Central Connecticut State (19-10, 13-2 Northeast)**: NET No. 231 | KenPom No. 253

  • Norfolk State (19-10, 9-3 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 233 | KenPom No. 254

  • Grambling (15-13, 12-3 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 294 | KenPom No. 285

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: March Madness predictions 4.0: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for SEC

Advertisement