March Madness betting, odds: With Super Bowl done, let's look ahead to the NCAA tourney
Time to shift focus from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Super Bowl is done, and those of us consumed by the NFL need something to pass the time until next season, or at least the draft. March Madness is closer than you think.
The first round of the NCAA tournament, one of the biggest betting holidays in the sports calendar, tips off four weeks from Thursday. Here's a rundown of the top storylines in college basketball:
The favorites
Here's a quick look at the odds to win the NCAA tournament at BetMGM, with every team at 20-to-1 or shorter:
Houston +600
Alabama +800
Purdue +800
Arizona +1200
Kansas +1300
UCLA +1300
Baylor +1400
Tennessee +1400
Texas +2000
Where are the blue bloods?
There are some brand names in that list of favorites, but a lot of familiar programs are missing. It has been a strange season for a lot of the best programs in the sport. Kentucky and North Carolina came into the season with high hopes and both are on the bubble. Like UNC last season, either is capable of a run if they get hot and get in, but it hasn't been pretty so far. Maybe Kentucky's win at Mississippi State on Wednesday night can get the Wildcats going. Michigan State is likely going to be in the field but they haven't been typically strong. Oregon and Wisconsin are other tourney mainstays who probably wouldn't be in if the field was set now.
Then there are programs like Michigan, Villanova, Syracuse and Louisville that are nowhere near the tournament. It might be a year we get a champion that isn't from the normal list.
Who are the surprises to watch?
Pitt is tied for first place in the ACC (which is really down this season). That's a shock, though it's still a 10 seed in consensus mock brackets. The Panthers are still worth watching over the the next month to see if they're legit. Northwestern, which has good wins and is a strong 6-2 on the road, looks set for its second-ever NCAA tournament appearance. A win Wednesday against Indiana just about locks them up. Kansas State and Iowa State have made a lot of noise in a strong Big 12. Purdue has a good program but nobody had the Boilermakers as a consensus No. 1 seed at this point. Xavier and Marquette also have good histories but are a bit surprising atop the Big East (they played a great game Wednesday night, with Marquette winning in the final seconds).
Who's this year's sleeping giant (like UNC in 2022)?
Ironically, it might be North Carolina's biggest rival. UNC was a No. 8 seed last season with a dubious resume before a season-ending win at Duke, but that started a hot streak that took the Tar Heels to the title game. This season, Duke is between a No. 7 and 9 seed in most bracket projections but there are reasons to believe there's a surge coming. It's a young team — four of the top five scorers are freshmen — with a first-year head coach. The Blue Devils will continue to improve. They likely would have won at Virginia last weekend if not for a bad call at the end of regulation, and generally the Blue Devils have looked a little better lately. Duke is 50-to-1 to win the title at BetMGM, and it's a field that seems unpredictable. That ticket could age well.
Who is starting to get hot?
The best teams to bet in March Madness are often the ones who weren't great all season but get hot at the right time. Those teams haven't announced themselves yet, but a few have gotten hot lately. Creighton, a buzzy preseason team, was injured during a 9-8 start but won eight straight before a double-overtime loss at Providence. Baylor was 10-5, then won 10 of 11. They have an elite offense with a lot of guards, led by freshman star Keyonte George. Texas A&M was 6-5 with bad losses to Murray State and Wofford but is 13-2 since and is just a game back in a tough SEC. We'll see if those teams can keep it going through March.
Who is slipping?
UConn, with elite big man Adama Sanogo, looked like it was the best team in the sport early this season. The Huskies started 14-0. They're 5-7 since, though analytics still think they're a top-10 team. Kansas State, Iowa State and TCU have all lost more than they've won lately after strong starts, but that's life in the deep Big 12. They could re-emerge in March when they're out of the conference gauntlet. New Mexico is a mid-major that has gone from at-large hopes — the Mountain West looks like a possible four-bid league — to the bubble after some rough losses in conference play.
Mid-majors to watch
Is St. Mary's a mid-major, or did Gonzaga push the WCC out of that conversation? Either way, St. Mary's is really good. Better than Gonzaga, probably. The Gaels will be no secret when we get to Selection Sunday.
Here are some mid-majors further off the radar that can win an NCAA tournament game with the right matchup. Keep an eye on them the next few weeks: Liberty (Darius McGhee is a star mid-major player for a dangerous Flames team), College of Charleston (a 20-game win streak and a brief time in the top 25 got them attention), Florida Atlantic (KenPom lovers will note their lofty No. 36 ranking), Iona (Rick Pitino's team is again shredding the MAAC, but needs to avoid a second straight conference tournament upset), Kent State (17-7 against the spread with close losses to Houston and Gonzaga), Colgate (great offense, looking for a tournament win after losing to Wisconsin in the first round last year), Furman (brought back a lot, looking for first tourney bid since 1980), Oral Roberts (old tourney hero Max Abmas is a senior now, and the Golden Eagles have lost once since Nov. 22), Bradley (or it could be Drake, both Missouri Valley teams are pretty good).
Who's the best bet to win it all?
I like the value on Alabama at 8-to-1. The Crimson Tide's resume is strong. Brandon Miller, a 6-foot-9 freshman forward, could be the top college player taken in the 2023 NBA draft, as high as third overall. Alabama is well coached by Nate Oats, has balance on offense and defense and is 12-1 in the SEC, one of the best leagues in college basketball. Alabama lost at Tennessee on Wednesday, but there's no shame in that. UCLA and its strong defense and veteran leaders could also be worth a shot at 13-to-1. But I'm investing in Alabama in advance of the tournament.
